Why an uncertain future could set up a thrilling Rugby Championship

There was a degree of consternation from those in Australia for the British and Irish Lions series when Wallabies boss Joe Schmidt made mention of the upcoming challenges that the Rugby Championship would pose. Schmidt, it seemed, was suggesting that part of the reason that Will Skelton and Rob Valetini were absent from his squad for the first Test was partly to do with the need to hold something back for the encounters to come against South Africa – which rather jarred in the days before a once-in-a-generation rugby moment.

Yet Schmidt’s comments reflected both the fast-moving world of modern international rugby union, with this tournament beginning two weeks after the Lions series came to an end, and the importance placed on the southern hemisphere’s marquee event. Its popularity and global recognition as the best meeting the best may have dipped slightly since the heady days of the Tri Nations era but the Rugby Championship still has a real capacity to captivate, with the distinct identities of the four competing sides and the evolution of Argentina into a genuine threat layering extra annual intrigue.

Or, at least, it has done. This year marks the end of an era for the competition, its last before it moves to a biennial format as the international calendar is reshaped. Not only will the launch of World Rugby’s Nations Cup squeeze the schedule, but next year will also see the first contests of a new touring agreement between the Springboks and All Blacks likely to be badged as “Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry”. The desire for the two leading nations in the world to meet more often is obvious; quite what it will mean for Australia and Argentina, their competition brethren more in need of financial and sporting succour, is still slightly unclear.

Indeed, there are some who feel the Rugby Championship’s days as a coherent entity at all may be numbered, replaced by more traditional touring between the four unions. It is not an idea without merit – the sprawling nature of the tournament in its current guise can see international travel and the sequencing of games have an outsized impact on results. But it is still a shame to see a successful, confected competition of the professional era perhaps fade into obsolescence.

There is plenty of reason to enjoy it while it lasts, mind. There is sound logic behind a belief that this could be an edition with greater intrigue than usual, with each of the four unions in a slightly strange state to provide the necessary uncertainty. Unusually given the All Blacks’ dominance over the last decade and a half, it is South Africa who begin as defending champions – and the fact that the Springboks are unbeaten since securing the competition crown in Mbombela last September further underscores their place as strong contenders.

Yet one feels like tougher times could be ahead for Rassie Erasmus and his squad. The central schemer at the heart of the transformation of the side into double World Champions again appears to be embarking on a retooling phase, mixing and matching like a mad scientist as he both rotates to explore depth within his squad and challenges the intricacies of rugby’s lawbook. Neither factor has yet imperilled South Africa’s supremacy, and their attacking expansion of the last 18 months has been fascinating – but there are some within the sport who wonder if their squad can maintain their high levels given the gruelling year-round schedule top Springboks now have to manage.

Their opening encounter with the Wallabies could be instructive. Where South Africa largely swept aside – with respect to an under-strength Italy – weaker opposition in July, Australia arrive battle hardened by their three forays into the Lions’ den. The pessimistic mood music of Brisbane may not have been totally replaced by triumphant trumpeting after the series defeat was confirmed with a game to spare, but third Test success in Sydney salvaged plenty of pride and perhaps suggested brighter times to come. Plenty appears to have clarified for Joe Schmidt, not least the importance of Valetini and Skelton to his side – the former’s absence is significant ahead of a clash at Ellis Park but the presence of the latter gives the visitors some forward firepower to take on South Africa’s big five.

Would an upset win open the door for others to knock the Springboks off a throne on which they are growing comfortable? It is worth recalling that Argentina went into the final weekend last year with a shot at the title, evidence of how they have grown into a force despite plenty of inhibiting factors. A tendency to blow hot and cold was shown again this summer, though – another landmark success against the Lions rightly had Felipe Contepomi beaming with pride, but the Pumas were tamed a little too easily by an England side shorn of many of their best thereafter.

Two more matches on home soil should please a squad striving for consistency; the fact that it is the All Blacks to greet them may too. Argentina have reserved plenty of their best performances for New Zealand in recent years, World Cup semi-final aside, and will hope to pounce on a side still vulnerable in a feeling-out phase under Scott Robertson. The new identity the former Crusaders coach was tasked to forge is yet to fully form for the moulding men in black – an idea that Robertson was waiting for the return of Richie Mo’unga to settle the situation at fly half has been slightly scuppered by news that the playmaker will not be back in New Zealand until next July.

Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie, for now, re-take the reins, displaying the strength still present in the ranks. Only once, during Australia’s golden heyday at the turn of the century, have New Zealand ever failed to win the Rugby Championship or Tri-Nations in back-to-back years, and the All Blacks host the Springboks in both meetings this year. That, just about, probably makes them favourites – a new era soon dawns but some things never change.