What To Expect From Erik Karlsson This Season

It’s been a little over two years since the Pittsburgh Penguins traded for defenseman Erik Karlsson. 

The Karlsson sweepstakes were down to the Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes, and in the end, the Penguins put together the better offer. General manager and president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas made the trade to try to give the Penguins one last kick at the can for another Stanley Cup, but it didn’t go the way the Penguins wanted it to. They pivoted at the 2024 trade deadline and started their rebuild, which has continued into 2025 and will continue for future seasons as well. They’re trying to return to contention as urgently as possible. 

A lot has been made about Karlsson’s two-season tenure with the Penguins. When you mention his name, you get a bunch of wildly different opinions from different people in the fanbase. Has he been as good as some people expected him to be? No. Has he been as bad as some fans have made him out to be? Also no. The truth is often in the middle, especially for Karlsson. 

There have been a lot of trade rumors surrounding Karlsson this offseason. He has two years left on his contract and would probably waive his no-move clause if the right team came calling for him. He hasn’t won a Stanley Cup yet and is already 35, so time is ticking. 

That said, the Penguins haven’t gotten a good enough offer to the point where a trade makes sense. Until that happens, the Penguins can keep Karlsson and wait for a team to make an offer that they deem is fair. A lot of eyes will be on him when the season starts, if he’s still on the roster, to see what he can do in a new system. 

Despite his faults, Karlsson was still great at getting the puck up the ice and generating offense last season. Per MoneyPuck, he was tied for fifth among all NHL defensemen in 5v5 points with 33. Only Zach Werenski, Cale Makar, Rasmus Dahlin, and Quinn Hughes had more 5v5 points among defensemen than Karlsson. His play in his own zone isn’t good, but the Penguins didn’t get Karlsson for his defensive play. They got him to push the play up the ice and help generate offense from the blue line. 

He hasn’t done it to the degree that he did with the San Jose Sharks, but that was always unlikely to happen. Certain fans had unrealistic expectations for him when he was acquired. However, if he can have a season this year where he produces in the 60-to-70 point range and cleans up some of his decision-making, that would be a big win for the Penguins. He’d increase his trade value and look even more enticing to some contenders since the term on his contract would be even shorter. 

Dan Muse and Co. aren’t going to try to change the way Karlsson plays. That would be incredibly foolish since Karlsson has made his name by being the best offensive defenseman of his generation. The key will be to tweak some aspects of his game, including not pinching as aggressively at times and some of his overall positioning.

For example, when you go back and watch his 4 Nations tape with Team Sweden, he looks like a player who knows his role. He was rarely out of position and always making the right read. Granted, he did have a great partner in Mattias Ekholm and won’t have that luxury with the Penguins, but it was clear that the Swedish coaching staff had a plan for Karlsson, and he executed it to perfection. 

Top-20 Penguins' Prospects 2025: Defensive Prospect Continues To Grow All-Around GameHeading into the 2025-26 season, the 

Karlsson is the Penguins’ top defenseman going into the 2025-26 season, and because of that, fans should expect him to eat up top-pairing minutes. Kris Letang has generally held that mantle throughout his Penguins’ career and will go down as one of the best players in franchise history, but he slowed down last season. It’s expected because Letang is 38 now, but Karlsson has to get the top minutes with Sidney Crosby and his line. 

This will be a fascinating season for the Penguins since expectations are super low. There’s also a new coaching staff in place after the team moved on from Mike Sullivan following the 2024-25 season. There are still some good things to look forward to, including some of the younger players getting extended looks (like Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen), Crosby trying to make more history, Evgeni Malkin having a bit of a renaissance, and seeing what Karlsson can do under a new staff.

Karlsson has an opportunity to silence some of his naysayers once the Penguins’ season starts on October 7 against the New York Rangers. Let’s see if he can do it. 

(Data via MoneyPuck). 

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