The 2025 season is setting up to be a big one for USC and coach Lincoln Riley. The Trojans are getting ready to enter their fourth season with Riley at the helm but are a combined 26-14 and have yet to make a College Football Playoff in that span. In fact, USC has seen its […]
The 2025 season is setting up to be a big one for USC and coach Lincoln Riley. The Trojans are getting ready to enter their fourth season with Riley at the helm but are a combined 26-14 and have yet to make a College Football Playoff in that span.
In fact, USC has seen its record get worse each season under Riley. Although he might not be on the hot seat just yet, this is still a season in which he enters with a lot to prove, and success could go a long way in helping his job security.
College football analyst Josh Pate broke down the three biggest questions for the program entering this pivotal year on a recent episode of the Josh Pate College Football Show. The answer to each of them could tell the story of how the upcoming season goes in Los Angeles.
Has USC proved itself against Big Ten compeition?
USC played its first season as a member of the Big Ten in 2024, moving over from the Pac-12 as a result of conference realignment. The Trojans finished with a 4-5 record and lost both of its contests against the only ranked conference opponents it played.
As such, Pate questioned whether the team has proved itself capable of keeping up with the physicality of Big Ten schools. USC wasn’t just losing to the big names last year, but also programs such as Minnesota and Maryland.
“Have they Big Ten-proved themselves?” Pate pondered. “Because I watched them last year and they didn’t feel like an operation that was built to win in the Big Ten, which is bad because that’s the conference they’re in now.
“Their offensive line couldn’t close games. You remember that, I just read the stat to you. They were 82nd in rush yards per game. This offensive line still feels like it’s a work in progress and so if you’re playing the teams you have to play again this year, you know how they’re built on the lines of scrimmage. They may not have the mosy dynamic playmakers out wide like you do. But they can also put you in the dirt. Can you do to them? Can you close out games? That’s the first thing.
Can USC win a game with its defense?
Defense has been a question mark at USC since Riley took over, but the Trojans made some strides this past season. They hired D’Anton Lynn at defensive coordinator to replace Alex Grinch after ranking 121st in scoring defense in 2023.
USC saw those numbers improve to rank 56th in scoring defense this past season, but Pate noted other areas that need improvement such as the pass rush. Taking another step forward in Lynn’s second season could be what the program needs to get over the hump.
“The second thing, could they win a game defensively if they need to?” Pate asked. “That’s something we don’t ask about Lincoln Riley teams very often. But you know what? They’ve got the defensive staff and it’s in its second full year now. They got much better personnel. They went from 121 to 56th in scoring defense two years ago to last year. But they were still 100th in sacks per game. So the havoc rate, the ability to affect the quarterback, that’s gotta get better.
“They need better guys on the edge or better production on the edge. But if they’re in a game early in the year and the offense isn’t clicking yet, could they win a game that’s played in the low-to-mid-20s. Historically, no. Maybe things have changed.”
Can USC get better at closing games?
USC might have finished 7-6 this past season, but it could have easily been 12-1. In five of the Trojans’ six losses, they held a lead heading into the fourth quarter before squandering it.
Some might call that bad luck, but Pate believes that it could also be a sign of the team’s poor ability to close out games. Time will tell which it is if we see a similar trend this year, or if the Trojans can find a way to win their close contests.
“Third thing, what if it’s just a bunch of one-possession games again?” Pate said. “The conventional wisdom out there is, ‘Well we lost all those games last year. We’ll be on the plus side of those this year.’ But there’s no guarantee that that’s the case. If the competitive character of your program is such that you don’t know how to win games, that doesn’t always change over the course of January through August. So something fundamental has to have changed. It could be luck. Luck could change.
“There’s some coaches that you go and look at them historically, and their record in one-possession games is incredible. Kirby Smart’s one of them. Then there are other coaches and other programs even, I think of Nebraska in recent history, where they cannot get out of their own way in one-possession games. That’s because it’s not totally randomized. There is skill in knowing how to close out games and there is also a lot to be said for folks and teams who don’t know how to close out games. USC couldn’t do it last year. Has something changed? Those are the fundamental questions to me that have to be answered there.”
Category: General Sports
