The Nashville Predators have always been known for their big and physical style, and have found a lot of success doing that.
The Nashville Predators have always been known for their big and physical style, and have found a lot of success doing that.
They've opted for a strong defense that generates scoring over an explosive offense. The team has truly identified with the "Smashville" style of play, which has taken them as far as the 2017 Stanley Cup Final.
With Barry Trotz now the general manager, the Predators will likely follow that same style for as long as he's in a position of leadership.
However, since the team's inaugural season in 1998, the game has become faster, and there have been more goals.
The 1998-99 season saw the league average 2.63 goals per game. Fast forward to this past season, and that number has grown by half, now at 3.01, and that's at the lower end of what it's been over the past four seasons.
During the 2022-23 season, that number peaked to 3.14, the highest it had been since the 1995-96 season.
While the Predators have been above the league's season scoring average 11 times in the last five years, they've been below that average three times. In their most recent seasons, they averaged 2.59 goals per game, which is nearly half a goal below the league average.
Over the last 10 seasons the Predators have had an interesting pattern in scoring as an increase one season is met by a decline the next. 3.24 goals per game during the 2023-24 season was the most offense the Predators had seen in this 10 year period, which was instantly met by the lowest goals per game total in the decade stretch the next season.
A boom has always been met by a crash, but it has been followed by a subsequent rise in scoring. However, now, at a fork in the road to keep developing this group or rebuild, Nashville needs as much offense as it can get.
What can be done now?
It starts with their top six.
Steven Stamkos needs to prove that he still has a handful of good years left in him and is not in the twilight of his career. He had at least 30 goals a season between 2021 and 2024 and had 106 points during the 2021-22 season. Reharnessing that firepower is critical. Could a move to the wing reignite that?
Jonathan Marchessault had 42 goals during the 2023-24 season before he signed with Nashville. That total dropped to half last year (21 goals) and was the lowest single-season total of his career when playing 70+ games.
Vegas didn't want to agree to an extension with Marchessault because he'd be too old by the time it was up. He needs to prove that Nashville didn't fall into that trap.
Filip Forsberg can really do so much. He has been the offensive firepower of this team for five straight years and has shown no signs of wavering. In a year where everything went wrong, Forsberg still found a way to score 76 points. If anything, he needs support.
Ryan O'Reilly needs help on the wings. 53 points in 79 games is a decent stat line, but could likely be higher if there was more depth between the first and second lines.
The stars are aligning for Luke Evangelista to have that breakout year on the wing, netting 32 points in his second full NHL season.
Then that No. 6 spot is kind of open. It's about who's going to step up.
On paper, Erik Haula slides right in. He was injured for part of last season, but has recorded 30-40 points a year between 2021 and 2024. However, that raises the question of depth and the desire to share it around. Would a better place for Haula be in the bottom six with younger players?
Fedor Svechkov may be worth a try. He had 17 points in 52 games last year and looks like he's ready to spend the entirety of this season up in Nashville. Top 6 at center may be a little risky, but considering how big this year will be, it's worth a try.
Overall, the Predators need to find this balance of scoring firepower, equal depth and building the future.
Size and strength within reason
I'm not saying the Predators need to get rid of all their bigger players. There are still many benefits to having taller and more physical players.
However, there's got to be more depth to some of these players beyond their size.
I think the Predators had that vision with Brady Skjei, who is bigger and has offensive upside to his game, but his game has started to decline in the last few years, and he is on a lengthy contract.
Nick Perbix and Matthew Wood have the potential to be bigger players who can score and generate offense. Perbix has had a pair of good seasons in Tampa, and Wood had a solid final season at Minnesota.
Cole Smith teeters that line. He has proven he can be a productive, big, bottom six forward, but is logging 60+ penalty minutes a season while barely putting up 15 points. If his production would jump, he'd be a good piece that is big and productive.
Now, on the flip side, putting Nicolas Hague in the top defensive pairing or holding onto Michael McCarron aren't great moves. Hague is big, but he has never played in a top-four role in his six seasons in the NHL. He's also never scored more than 17 points in a season.
McCarron, despite being 6-feet-6-inches, is mainly contributing to the Predators' penalty minutes. In needing more depth down the middle, there's really not much McCarron brings.
Nashville is traditionally a team that takes a lot of penalties, but when you're coming off a year where you were bottom three in the league, there should be an effort to stay out of the box.
Looking toward the future
I think there is understanding, at least with drafting, that the Predators need to be faster and have a little bit of flair on offense.
Brady Martin, who is still big and physical, has great vision on the ice and is a playmaker. Physicality is a part of his game, but it's not what he's banking everything on. His game identity is so important in the next chapter of this franchise.
Then you have a ton of offensively skilled players. Ryker Lee, Teddy Stiga and Aiden Fink are three players who have a strong offensive edge and could score a lot of goals in the future.
From my perspective, and given the players drafted, I believe the Predators recognize this is a different league with more scoring and an offense-first approach. It'll be very exciting to see how these prospects develop and what Nashville wants to do with them.
Category: General Sports