The Brewers have (arguably) entered the 'magic number' portion of the season. Here's the latest look at the NL playoff picture.
The arrival of August means we've officially reached the home stretch of the baseball season and, lookie lookie, the Milwaukee Brewers are right there in the thick of the playoff hunt, per usual.
Just how close is Milwaukee to landing a spot in the playoffs? Here's what to know:
What's the Milwaukee Brewers' magic number to secure a playoff spot?
It's 49 to guarantee a better record than the Cincinnati Reds, the first team on the outside of the NL playoff picture looking in.
To win the division, it's 56 to guarantee a better record than the closest threat, the Cubs. Chicago is just one game back.
How is the 'magic number' calculated and what does it mean?
The magic number is the total number of outcomes that have to go right for a team to secure a playoff spot. That means any combination of Brewers wins or losses by the first team outside the playoff picture — the Reds, for now, though that team is subject to change — adding up to the magic number will do the trick.
It's a pretty easy calculation. Take the overall number of games in a season (162 in this case), add one (to 163), subtract the wins of the first place team (the Brewers have 63) and the losses of the nearest chasing competitor (the Reds, in this case, have 51).
That gives you a number of 49. Adding the "1" is necessary because the goal is to win outright and not simply finish with a tied record, although a team could also secure a tiebreaker and make the need for that extra "1" disappear.
How close are the Milwaukee Brewers to a first-round bye in the playoffs?
The Brewers need to have a top-two record among National League division winners to secure a bye. Because they have the best record in the league, they would have a first-round bye if the season ended today and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.
The third NL division winner and three wild-card teams would compete in the wild-card round of the playoffs, while the Brewers would get a free pass to the division series.
The Cubs (62-44), a game back of Milwaukee, would be relegated to no better than the top wild-card spot (No. 4 seed) because they aren't in first place in their division. The National League East-leading New York Mets (62-45) would have that honor instead, even with a lesser record.
With the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (62-45) hovering, the race for a first-round bye looks tight between the three division leaders.
If the season ended today, would the Milwaukee Brewers have a playoff spot, and who would they play?
Yes, the Brewers would be in the playoffs, own the No. 1 seed, and await the winner of the No. 4 vs. No. 5 seeds (Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies).
Would the Milwaukee Brewers' record right now be good enough for a wild-card spot if they weren't winning the Central?
Heavens, yes. The Brewers are 7½ games ahead of the Reds for the last playoff spot.
Isn't it too early to talk about the Milwaukee Brewers' magic number?
Friend, we started tracking this madness a week earlier in 2024. We love magic numbers.
How are the Milwaukee Brewers' closest contenders doing?
Chicago Cubs
- Record: 62-45
- Brewers vs. the Cubs: 3-3
- Trends: Rookie third baseman Matt Shaw has been on a tear the past two weeks, and MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong isn't exactly slowing down.
- Last 10: 5-5
- July: 13-10
- Up next: Two more games vs. Milwaukee, three games vs. Baltimore, three games vs. Cincinnati.
The Cubs are jockeying with the Brewers for control of the National League Central, and the teams are tied in the season series (3-3) with seven more games to play.
New York Mets
- Record: 62-45
- Brewers vs. the Mets: 1-2
- Trends: The white-hot Mets won seven straight before losing in walk-off fashion July 28, even with Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso slumping over the past 30 days. Fresh off the injured list, Sean Manaea may be returning to form.
- Last 10: 7-3
- July: 14-8
- Up next: Two more games at San Diego, three vs. San Francisco, three vs. Cleveland.
The National League East leader isn't a direct threat to Milwaukee's playoff hopes but will be a contender for a first-round playoff bye.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Record: 62-45
- Brewers vs. the Dodgers: 6-0
- Trends: After getting swept by Milwaukee, the Dodgers needed a walk-off to avoid a series loss to Minnesota and lost two of three in Boston. Pitching from starters like Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto remains excellent.
- Last 10: 4-6
- July: 9-13
- Up next: Two more games at Cincinnati, three at Tampa Bay, three vs. St. Louis.
The Dodgers lead the NL West and aren't a direct threat to Milwaukee's playoff plight but will be a contender for a first-round playoff bye.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Record: 60-46
- Brewers vs. the Phillies: 3-0
- Trends: The Phillies have multiple Cy Young candidates in Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler pitching well, although Sánchez lost to the Chicago White Sox on July 28. Kyle Schwarber has been white-hot for a month, and Bryce Harper isn't far behind.
- Last 10: 5-5
- July: 10-11
- Up next: Two more games at Chicago White Sox, three vs. Detroit, three vs. Baltimore. The Phillies are in a stretch of 21 consecutive games against American League teams.
The Phillies are second in the wild-card standings behind the Cubs.
San Diego Padres
- Record: 58-49
- Brewers vs. the Padres: 1-2
- Trends: San Diego has won three straight immediately after dropping four straight. Manny Machado has six homers in the last month and a 1.094 OPS over the past two weeks. Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon have been nails in the bullpen.
- Last 10: 5-5
- July: 13-10
- Up next: Two more vs. New York Mets, three vs. St. Louis, three at Arizona.
The Padres are the third wild-card team for now, two games ahead of the Reds but 4½ behind the top wild-card team, Chicago.
Cincinnati Reds
- Record: 56-51
- Brewers vs. the Reds: 5-2
- Trends: Reds had won four straight before losing to the Dodgers on July 28 and are getting huge recent performances from starter Nick Lodolo, with solid hitting across the board.
- Last 10: 6-4
- July: 12-10
- Up next: Two more games vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, three vs. Atlanta, three at Chicago Cubs.
The Reds are the next team up if one of the wild-card teams falters, and it's important to note them as the first team out of the playoffs — and, for the moment, the team the Brewers would like to finish ahead of to clinch a playoff spot.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What's the Milwaukee Brewers' magic number to clinch a playoff spot?
Category: Baseball
