After a 4-0 start in Big 12 play, BYU’s competition starts to ramp up beginning Saturday night when they travel Lubbock to play #15 Texas Tech in a top 15 showdown. This game features five All-Big 12 players. Seriously, I don’t know how you keep any of these top five guys off the 10-player all […]
After a 4-0 start in Big 12 play, BYU’s competition starts to ramp up beginning Saturday night when they travel Lubbock to play #15 Texas Tech in a top 15 showdown.
This game features five All-Big 12 players. Seriously, I don’t know how you keep any of these top five guys off the 10-player all league team. BYU’s big three is as good as any team in the country and I believe JT Toppin and Christian Anderson are both top 20 players in college basketball. The crowd will be rocking and we will get to witness some high-end college basketball talent.
The game tips off Saturday at 7pm CT on ESPN.
BYU and Texas Tech by the Numbers
Texas Tech KenPom: 23
NET ranking: 19
Record: 13-4
Best Wins: Wake Forest (N), LSU (N), Duke (N), Oklahoma State (H), Colorado (A), Utah (H)
Losses: Illinois (A), Purdue (N), Arkansas (N), Houston (A)
AP Ranking: 15
BYU KenPom: 13
NET Ranking: 8
Record: 16-1
AP Ranking: 11
KenPom Prediction: TTU 80, BYU 79 — Texas Tech 52% win probability
Point Spread: Texas Tech -2.5
Point Total: 158.5
Texas Tech Overview
Texas Tech’s duo of JT Toppin and Christian Anderson is as good as any in college basketball. Toppin is the reigning Big 12 POY and Christian Anderson is, in my opinion, the best point guard in the Big 12. They surround them with shooters and have a potent offense. Here’s some stats showing how important the three ball is to them. In four Big 12 games, Texas Tech is shooting 39.4% from three (#1 in Big 12 play) and 47% of their field goal attempts are from 3 (#2 in Big 12 play). Tech also shoots the least amount of free throws for any team in Big 12 play. 46% of their points in Big 12 come from the three (most in Big 12) and 8.5% of their points come from the free throw line (last in Big 12). TTU has shot more and made more threes than their opponent in every Big 12 game and attempted fewer and made fewer free throws in every Big 12 game. So yeah — you gotta guard the three-point line.
Personnel wise, Tech has been missing expected contributors for several weeks now. VCU transfer Luke Bamgboye is one of the top shot blockers in the country and hasn’t played in a month due to injury. His absence has completely changed their defensive outlook and forced Toppin to play the five. I’m writing this with the assumption Bamgboye doesn’t play; if he does, minutes will likely be limited but it would be a big boost for TTU’s defense. BYU has seen him before — he was VCU’s starting Center when BYU played them in the NCAA Tournament.
Texas Tech also relies on their bench even less than BYU. They play the fewest bench minutes of any power conference team in college basketball and essentially play a six-man rotation.
Even with that short rotation Texas Tech is still a really good team. They beat Duke at Madison Square Garden with the same guys they have now and are 3-1 in Big 12 play, with the one loss a 4-point road loss at Houston. Toppin and Anderson are incredibly hard to slow down and they space the floor with shooters around them.
Defensively, Texas Tech isn’t as strong as their offense but they are still solid on that end. Tech forces the least amount of turnovers of any Big 12 team in league play, but they are good positionally and rebound the ball really well. They allow the least amount of offensive rebounds in Big 12 play, allowing opponents to rebound 22% of their misses.
Player Overview
JT Toppin, Forward — The 6-foot-9 forward is the reigning Big 12 POY and one of the best players in college basketball. Toppin is Tech’s defacto center right now and has improved his rebounding and block numbers. He averages 21 points, 11 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. He averages just two three-point attempts per game and shoots 22% from three, but he is coming off a 3-4 performance versus Utah in their last game. I imagine Keba Keita will spend most of the game matched up on Toppin.
Christian Anderson, Guard — Anderson was one of the Big 12 top freshman a season ago and has taken a big leap as a sophomore. Anderson averages 19.7 points and 7.5 assists while shooting 43.5% from three on over 7 attempts per game. Anderson can get to the rim or create his own shot on the perimeter. He is one of the toughest guards to matchup with in the country.
Donovan Atwell, Guard — The 6-foot-5 senior is Tech’s best catch-and-shoot-player. Atwell leads the team in 3PA and averages 12 points on 42% shooting from three. Anderson and Toppin get the most attention, and that leads to good looks for Atell.
LeJuan Watts, Wing/Forward — The 6-foot-6, 225 pounds forward is their defacto 4 and a strong wing who I anticipate will get the bulk of the time guarding AJ. Watts averages 13 points and 6.4 boards and does most of scoring close to the paint. He has some similarities to TCU’s front court duo who weren’t tall but are muscular and strong.
Jaylen Petty, Guard — The 6-foot-1 freshman is Tech’s fifth starter. Petty averages 9.3 points and shoots 37% from three. He’s Tech’s fifth option and has been used primarily as a spot up shooter.
Prediction
This should be a very entertaining game. The star power and top-end talent is as high as you’ll see in any college basketball game with BYU’s big three and Tech’s top duo.
Coming into the game, both teams have very clear strengths in Big 12 play that go right at each other. Texas Tech is the best three-point shooing play in Big 12 play. BYU has the best three-point defense. BYU is the top offensive rebounding team in Big 12 play. Texas Tech has the lowest opposing offensive rebound percentage.
BYU’s improved three-point defense will be put to the test. Texas Tech will make their shots, but can BYU hold them closer to 30% rather than 40%? Defending Christian Anderson will be key. Not only does he make shots, he is also the one setting up his teammates. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kennard Davis and AJ Dybantsa get time guarding him. Tech isn’t a big team, so AJ could spend time guarding Anderson without giving a mismatch somewhere else.
I can see this game playing out multiple ways. For Texas Tech, this will be a juiced environment in one of the toughest places to play in college basketball. Their offense should feed off of that, and that could turn into some runs where they go on a three-point barrage. Toppin and Anderson will stress BYU’s defense and can carry Tech to a win.
I’ve watched Tech a lot and can easily see them winning. I’ll take BYU in a close game for a few reasons. First, I think BYU can have success against Tech’s defense. McCasland is terrific coach and Tech is a good positional defensive team. They are in the right spots, but don’t force turnovers; they have the lowest defensive turnover rate in Big 12 play. Texas Tech also isn’t very long, and they don’t want to foul due to their lack of depth. I envision BYU being super aggressive getting AJ going at the rim attacking JT Toppin. Texas Tech cannot afford to take him out of the game, so an early foul or two could really limit his defensive aggressiveness, which will open up BYU’s entire offense.
Texas Tech’s offense can score. They are the best shooting and spacing team BYU will have seen this year. BYU’s defense is much improved this year, in part because they are in the right spots and don’t overhelp unnecessarily. They don’t need to help as much as last year because they have guys like Davis and Dybantsa on the perimeter. Kansas State came into the BYU as a top-10 three-point shooting in the country, and BYU held them to 3-21 shooting. Tech is definitely better than K-State, but BYU will have the same type of mentality guarding three-point line and I think they can slow down the Red Raiders just enough to outscore them.
I’ve predicted every BYU outcome correctly this season. We’ll see if I can continue my streak.
Prediction: BYU 85, Texas Tech 83
Category: General Sports
