Big Ten SRS Rankings

With just one game left, these rankings are not likely to change much.

SRS (Simple Rating System) is a rating (and ranking) that uses strength of schedule and point differential to compare teams. A good description of the ratings can be found here: https://web.archive.org/web/20180531115621/https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index4837.html?p=37 That description is based on Pro football and not college football, but the principles are the same. One exception in the college game is that an upper margin of victory is set at 24 points and lower bound of 7 points.

The current ratings for all teams can be found here: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2025-ratings.html

Here’s a summary of the teams in the Big Ten.

These national rankings are not that different from other rankings. (Next week they’ll be a summary comparing them-after the last game is played.) UW, for example, is currently #17 in these rankings and was #22 in the last Massey Composite ranking. (I’d expect that they will be in the top-20 in the next Massey Composite ranking.)

The ‘SRS Value’ is important for several reasons. First it provides the rank. Second, it provides a relative strength of each team; values below 0 are going to be below average teams. (UMass, for example, is at -26.53, the bottom team in the FBS.) And finally, the difference between two teams gives you some idea of how much better or worse one team is than another.

Washington

One of the advantages of this ranking is that it is possible to compare not just teams in a season, but to compare teams across seasons. According to SRS, the 1991 and 1990 seasons are #1 and #2 for UW in their history (no surprise there). The ratings were 26.22 and 21.62, respectively.

The 2025 season was the 28th best in UW history according to SRS, and the 5th best since 2000-behind the 2016 (19.98, #3 overall), the 2023 (17.89, #8 overall), the 2017 (16.22, #17 overall), and the 2013 (15.12, #22 overall). The full list of seasons and their SRS values can be found here: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/washington/

As mentioned above, strength of schedule is a factor in calculating SRS. And that appears to be one reason why UW’s rating for the 2025 season isn’t higher. Half of the FBS teams that UW played ended up with a winning record-and UW lost to 3 of them. UW’s strength of schedule (according to SRS) was 3.32; it was 7.83 in 2023.

SRS includes components for both offense and defense. For 2025, UW’s offense was 6.94, which is the 23rd best in the country. UW’s defense was 6.07, which was the 24th best in the country.

Indiana

Not surprisingly, this season’s Indiana team is their highest rated in school history. Last season’s team was #4 in their history, with 1945 and 1944 being #2 and #3. Their 2020 team was #5, so 3 of their top 5 seasons have been in the last 6 years.

Some people have started comparing Indiana’s season to some of the best ever. Here is how Indiana’s SRS compares with the SRS leader over the last 25 years. (Note that the SRS leader each year isn’t always the #1 in the polls.)

The “Rank” in the table above is the rank among those 25 teams-not of all teams over that time.

While not among the top-5, Indiana’s season (so far) certainly compares favorably with the top performances this century. It is not far off of the 2016 Alabama team or the 2022 Georgia team. And those values could go up if Indiana beats Miami.

National Championship Game Prediction

As mentioned above, the SRS values give you an idea about how good a team is. Indiana is at 25.35. Miami is at 20.65. Both teams have top defenses. Indiana’s is the #2 defense according to SRS; Miami’s is #4. The difference is that Indiana’s offense is #11 while Miami’s is #28.

Based on the SRS ratings, Indiana should be more than a FG favorite, and the odds-makers do have Indiana as the favorite-by even more.

Final Thoughts

SRS, like other advanced stats, is a tool. It is not perfect-nor does it claim to be. There are a lot of factors that come into play when looking at matchups or rankings like injuries, schedules, weather, motivation, penalties, turnovers, etc. that can impact the outcome of a game. But what these kinds of ratings and rankings should do is to give the human voters of the polls information to help inform them when they vote. Some will use it; some will ignore and trust their ‘gut’ or the ‘eye test’.

Based on SRS, as well as many other advanced stats (like FEI, SP+, FPI, etc.) UW should be considered a top-25 team when the final polls are released next week. If UW is not ranked in the top-25, then you’ll know that some of the voters did not pay enough attention to rankings like SRS.

While UW should be a top-25 team, they are still a ways off from being one of the top teams. Even when UW made the playoffs in 2016 and 2023, their SRS value was below 20. From the table above, almost every year over the last 25, the top team has been in the 20’s-and Alabama was over 30 one year. UW was at just over 13 in the 2025 season, which was just below Alabama (13.32) and Oklahoma (13.20) which made the playoffs. For the 2024 season, UW was at 5.2. To really compete for the title, UW would need to improve as much as they did in the last year. Can they really jump up that much in 2026? Or will it take 2 or more years to get to that level? There will be hope among Husky fans as long as the trend is in the right direction.