Tyre Lottery at the 2026 Dakar Rally: What’s going wrong?

During the first week of the 2026 Dakar Rally in Saudi Arabia, there have been numerous tyre failures. Almost every team and vehicle in the top class has been affected, with some drivers suffering multiple punctures in a single day. On some stages, pit stops for tyre changes were introduced as some teams were even struggling to complete the distance. 

This has led some drivers to describe the race as a “lottery”. With such close time gaps in the leading group, the eventual winner could simply be the one who reaches the finish with the fewest punctures. In the bivouac, criticism is mounting against tyre manufacturer BFGoodrich.

“We are not happy with BFGoodrich at all,” emphasises Joan Navarro, head engineer at M-Sport Ford, in an interview with Motorsport.com. “The tyre is a new one, not the same as last year.

“They developed it further over the course of the year. We used this tyre for the first time [in October] at the Rallye du Maroc. That was very last-minute – we couldn’t react, couldn’t do anything.

“We said from the start that this tyre wasn’t validated – because to start at Dakar, a tyre must be validated. Normally, we validate every component over more than 5,000km, and this tyre simply wasn’t validated.”

For the new tyre, BFGoodrich changed the internal structure. The goal was to reduce damage to the tread surface, which had been a recurring issue in past years.

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“They actually achieved that,” Navarro admits, “but now we have more sidewall damage. So, in the end, you have just as many punctures overall, only in a different spot. We’re not happy with that at all.

“That’s something we have to work on for next year. Without the pit stops, it would have been a disaster. If you look at Stage 2 or 3 – for seven cars, we had more than 15 punctures, I think. That’s enormous!

“Without the pit stop, probably all cars would have been stranded somewhere mid-stage without tyres. That’s not acceptable, and it’s something that needs fixing.”

But the tyres aren't the only culprit for the high number of punctures sweeping the field - the damage is also related to the terrain in Saudi Arabia.

Razor-sharp stones in Saudi Arabia

In Saudi Arabia, there are many rocky sections filled with stones embedded in the mountainous terrain – especially in the northern region. Most of the first week’s stages took place there, while the classic sandy desert lies mainly in the south of the country.

“The terrain is totally different from what we’re used to in Europe or other regions,” says Dacia team principal Tiphanie Isnard. “That’s tough on the tyres, but it’s part of tyre management – and it’s clearly tied to the terrain.”

Still, the Frenchwoman notes: “I’m satisfied with what we’ve achieved. They reinforced the tread, which is exactly what we asked for because punctures on the tread are pure bad luck.”

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Toyota team manager Jan Verhaegen sees the cause of the high volume of punctures more in the type of stones found along the route, rather than in BFGoodrich’s design. Saudi Arabia has a history of volcanic activity and, even today, many volcanic craters are still visible.

“What I’m hearing from the guys – and I’ve been out on the ground myself – is that you come across some razor-sharp stones out there,” Verhaegen explains. “These black, flat stones – I’d almost call them ceramic-like.

“When you drive over them, the front tyre flicks them up and the rear one catches them. So, in short: I’d clearly attribute this to the terrain, not BFG. We have observed ourselves that most – if not all – of the punctures occur on the sidewall.

“But again, I really think this is more about the terrain, and perhaps the sidewall is the area that still needs strengthening. It’s a learning process for next year. But once again, I don’t want to publicly blame BFG here.

“In my view, the organisation and the terrain play the bigger roles.”

Primarily, it's up to rally director David Castera to decide where the route takes competitors via the roadbook.

Will luck decide the overall winner?

The words “luck” and “lottery” have often been heard in the bivouac during the first week. “What’s tricky are the cases where the drivers don’t even notice when they’ve picked up a puncture,” says Ford team boss Matthew Wilson.

Ford M-Sport team area

“Those are situations that are very hard to manage from a driver’s perspective. But one thing’s certain: BFGoodrich really tried to tackle and fix the old problem. Unfortunately, that seems to have created a new one.

“Perhaps we saw signs of it already in Morocco, but because that rally was shorter and had fewer top cars, the full extent only became apparent here. Unfortunately, the sidewall has now been exposed as a new weak point.

“That now seems to be an even bigger issue than the previous tread damage,” Wilson says. “It’s really frustrating – the whole thing has become a bit of a lottery. You can imagine how much money everyone invests to be here.

“And in the end, the winner might just be the one who suffers the fewest punctures. That’s not a fair basis. Sure, some of the sections they drove and some of the punctures would have happened no matter how strong the tyre is.”

“I think even the organisers knew that – that’s why they introduced the pit stop.”

Wilson believes many factors play into these tyre failures: the rocky terrain, the weight of the cars, and also the racing itself.

What influence can Dakar organiser A.S.O. have?

“We’re basically turning this into a sprint race now,” says X-raid boss Sven Quandt. “Every day they’re pushing to the maximum – only a few are still playing the strategy game, because most think it’s all or nothing.”

“There’s a stone sticking out of the sand – the first car hits nothing, the second hits nothing, but the third or fourth, then it hits and we’ve got a problem. But it could also be the first one that gets unlucky.”

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The question arises whether the T1+ vehicles could be slowed down via the roadbook, but that would create other problems, as Quandt explains: “The organiser runs into trouble if it’s too slow.”

“Because then the Challenger and Side-by-Side vehicles get too fast and start mixing with the front-runners again – and that’s not what you want. You need a balanced course; otherwise, the classes flip around.

“We know that in slow sections, a Challenger or Side-by-Side is already very fast – they’ve been given a lot of power. Their power-to-weight ratio compared to a T1 car is already very high.”

It remains to be seen what role the tyre issues will play in determining the rally’s outcome during the second week. After the rest day in Riyadh, the route heads south toward Wadi ad-Dawasir and Bisha before returning north through Al-Henakiyah to the finish in Yanbu on the Red Sea.

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