Taking a look at some plays the Packers could come back to against the Bears this weekend.
Earlier this week, we looked at a specific concept the Green Bay Packers ran against the Chciago Bears a couple times this year and how they may look to tweak it in this Wild Card game. Today, we’re just looking at a couple of missed opportunities from the Week 16 game after backup quarterback Malik Willis entered the game. I’m not really doing this from a “what could have been.” It’s more of a way to review some things that were left on the table and see if they will revisit them this week.
We’ve got three plays. Let’s go.
Play 1: 3rd & 1, 10:05 remaining in the 3rd quarter
Good ol’ PA Boot (or, in the Packers playbook, simply Keep).
This is a concept that plays heavily off Wide Zone runs, so it was a huge passing concept in LaFleur’s first couple of years. As defenses started taking away Wide Zone as a basis for offense, this play was dialed back significantly. It has made a resurgence this year. It was the Packers’ 3rd most used passing concept this year, and it was a good, solid concept. They dialed up PA Boot 42 times this season, averaging 6.7 YPA, with a 66.7% success rate and 16.7% explosive rate.
The Packers are in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) out of a static, 2×2 formation. This version has Jayden Reed [11] with an outside release on the backside of the play, running vertically down the field. With the switch release on that side between Reed and Romeo Doubs [87], Reed ends up cutting sharply up the seam and throwing up his hand.
With all the bodies at the line, confusion on the defense with the switch release and the single-high safety fading to the boot side, Reed is wide open.
Willis is running the play as-is, so he carries out the boot and finds Luke Musgrave [88] in the flat for 5 yards and the 1st down.
There are versions of this that call for a half-boot by the QB, pulling up on the far hash and looking to the backside for a shot. The most well-known being Leak.
If the Packers find themselves facing a similar look, I wouldn’t be shocked if they have a check to a version of this where Jordan Love pulls up on a half-boot and goes for the home run up the opposite seam.
Play 2: 1st & 10, 9:27 remaining in the 3rd quarter
This All Go concept is one that was a huge play for the Packers in 2020 and 2021, then slowly faded out of the playbook as defenses changed. We’re seeing it come back this year in selective spots (Packers ran it 14 times this season for 10 YPA, 42.9% success rate, 21.4% explosive rate).
The Bears look like they’re in a Cover 3 look pre-snap, then spin to a Quarters look post-snap. It looks like Willis is looking to throw to Christian Watson [9] in the middle of the field, but Kevin Byard [31] is looking to drive on that crossing route, so Willis pulls it down and scrambles for 11 yards.
Not a bad decision, but take a look at (once again) Reed on the right side. With the coverage rotation, Reed gets lost up the sideline. The read on this would be Watson as the #1, Musgrave as the #2 up the seam and Reed #2 on the outside.
The Bears’ post-snap rotation is likely what leads to Willis staying on Watson as long as he does. If he recognizes the rotation, he’d either hit Watson immediately or give him a quick glance before moving to Musgrave, then to Reed.
If the protection holds up a bit better – or if Willis rolls through the progression a bit quicker – this is a walk-in TD. It’s pretty much a given we’ll see the Packers dial this up at least once this weekend, and you’d better believe Love is going to be checking the outside.
Play 3: 2nd & 7, 9:30 remaining in the 4th quarter
The Packers are in 610 formation (6 OL, 1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR) and are running a variant of one of their core concepts. It’s one I typically tag Cross-Country Dagger. It’s a two-man concept, with the inside man running an intermediate crossing route and the outside man running an in-cutting route behind it. On this rep, Reed is running the crosser while Watson is on the in-cutter.
The read is Reed #1, Watson #2. The idea is to have the crosser either get open through the middle, or draw the attention in the middle to open the in-cutter behind it.
This variation has Watson running a Blaze Out on the outside. Fake the in-cutter, then break back to the boundary. The speed of Watson pushes the safety over him deep, and the quick step in sees the safety bailing entirely. Between that and the underneath defender passing falling back into his shallow zone, there’s a nice pocket of space to Watson on the boundary.
The defense can close on this quick, so the ball needs to be out to Watson in a timely manner. Willis stays on Reed through the middle and never works back to Watson. He ends up scrambling for 6 yards.
With Cross-Country Dagger being such a huge part of the Packers’ arsenal, this feels like something we’ll see them look to come back to this weekend.
Albums listened to: Blondshell – If You Asked For a Picture; Adult Mom – Natural Causes
Category: General Sports
