Packers-Bears Wild Card Preview: 5 Questions with the Enemy

Shoutout to Bill Zimmerman of Windy City Gridiron, who writes for our sister site Windy City Gridiron and covers the Chicago Bears. Zimmerman stopped by this week to help us break down the Green Bay Packers’ wild card round opponent for our 5 Questions series. If you want to read the companion piece to this article, you can find it HERE.

Did Bears fans want this matchup as badly as Packers fans have? After the Chicago loss, we had some people suggest that the team just try to lock in the seventh seed so that we played the Bears (which were still a moving target at that point). I don’t think I know anyone who didn’t want this in the first round of the wild card after the second game between us.

I honestly think the Chicago fan base was split on this. If I’m being honest, and I think objective Packers fans would agree, from a straight football standpoint, other than the Panthers, the Packers would be the best team to face in the postseason. The 3 teams in the NFC West are dangerous, and the Eagles are defending Super Bowl champions. The Packers are a 9-7-1 team, and if you want to advance, that’s the best team to play. This isn’t the team in October with Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons; they are certainly vulnerable. Doesn’t mean the Bears will win, but the Packers give them the best chance to win and advance to the next round.

But that being said, it’s the Packers. There is a sizeable part of the fan base that wanted to face the Packers because of the rivalry and because they have confidence that the tide has started to turn, they trust Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, they love that this game will be in Chicago, and they wanted to face the Packers for the rivalry and for bragging rights.

But there is certainly another group of the fan base that has significant trauma from the last 30+ years. For those fans, there’s a sense of dread that the Bears can’t beat the Packers when it matters, and that this will be another chapter in that sad story. I saw some fans on social media who wanted the three seed so they could avoid the Packers. So I would say the majority of Bears fans wanted to face the Packers, but it’s far from unanimous.

So you’re finally getting receiver Rome Odunze back after he missed the first two Packers games this year. Let’s hear about how he’ll change the offense.

Well, here’s what I would start with: the Bears haven’t had all their offensive weapons healthy and on the field at this point in their development yet this season. Colston Loveland and Luther Burden have really come into their own over the last 5 or 6 weeks. Odunze has missed 5 games, and with him back, this will be the potential for the most potent group of weapons. With Rome back and Burden becoming a weapon, DJ Moore is arguably the team’s WR3 with Loveland and Cole Kmet being utilized in 12 personnel, and their running back duo of D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. That’s 7 legitimate weapons for Caleb Williams to utilize, so a healthy Rome provides more depth to the pass catchers for sure.

Beyond the depth, Odunze has been Caleb’s favorite target throughout the season. He missed 5 games and yet still led the team in targets with 90. Odunze has been Caleb’s favorite target largely because he runs clean routes and he’s where Caleb expects him to be. The other thing that’s been frustrating for fans is scramble drills, which, as you would know, when Caleb rolls out of the pocket, is important, and the way many of the receivers are moving in those moments isn’t great, except for Odunze.

That’s where, I think, Odunze and Williams are at their best. That’s where their chemistry comes through. Odunze regularly works the field with Williams and comes back towards the ball and gives Caleb the best chance to complete passes when he’s improvising. DJ Moore isn’t great at it. Burden and Williams are building chemistry and aren’t just there yet, and Olamide Zacheaus doesn’t have good hands. Odunze is the guy who helps make Williams more dangerous in those moments.

C.J. Gardner-Johnson has already been ruled out with a concussion that he suffered last week. My understanding is that the next man up would be Kyler Gordon, who was just designated to return this week and is listed as questionable, with Nick McCloud being the third option to play the slot on defense for you guys. What are the drop-offs between those options?

The good news here is that Kyler Gordon is going to play. He’s listed as questionable, but he will be on the field (as long as he doesn’t hurt himself in warmups again). That’s critical, because while I think CJ Gardner-Johnson and Kyler Gordon are both similar in what they can provide to the defense, if both of them are out and Nick McCloud is playing, great googily moogily, that’s a giant hole in the defense (for a defense that doesn’t need more holes).

When Gordon is at his best, he’s an incredible piece for this defense in terms of the versatility he brings and how he can be utilized in blitzing schemes with Dennis Allen. The question is going to be how close to 100% he is, and he is going to be the “Spiderman” that Bears fans love? We will only know that answer until we see how he looks on the field on Saturday night.

Be honest with me, where would you rank this defense? The turnovers are a fluke, right?

Alright, let’s be fair about this defense. It’s not good. But let’s dive into that, and since you brought it up, let’s start with the turnovers. Are they a fluke that they are that high? Probably. However, the Bears attack the football, and do it with a fervor that I don’t see watching other NFL games (and I watch A LOT of other NFL games). So there’s a mentality to get the football away from the team that Dennis Allen drives home. So I do think turnovers will always be a part of this defense’s identity. But getting turnovers against better teams is a lot harder than getting them from the Cleveland Browns.

As for the rest of this defense, the secondary was supposed to be its strength, but it’s been difficult for that to be the case this year when Gordon and Jaylon Johnson miss 24 combined games. That’s literally their two best defensive players. They are both back, and if they both play like they can, that’s a huge boost for this entire defense. The question is, will they be their usual selves? The linebackers are fine. Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards are overpaid for what they do, but as linebacker duos, they are certainly good enough to get the job done and have had excellent moments during the season.

But that brings us to the defensive line. It’s terrible. Montez Sweat is good, but not good enough to carry the front four on his own. Grady Jarrett has had some moments the last couple of weeks, but hasn’t been what they hoped he would be. Gervon Dexter would be a nice DT3, but not the strongest DT2. Andrew Billings is on the wrong side of 30. I could go on. The Bears can’t generate pressure without blitzing.

Their run defense isn’t great, but I don’t think it’s as bad as people think it is when they’re healthy. Their pass defense has been bad, especially with the amount of explosive plays they give up, but if the secondary is healthier, perhaps they can reduce that on Saturday. But the inability to consistently pressure the quarterback is 100% this defense’s biggest problem.

Where would I rank this defense? It’s definitely a bottom-10 unit. I think some people would put it bottom 5, but I think with their solid play on third downs and red zone defense (especially at home, where they are 2nd in the league), I wouldn’t put them quite that bad. The question is, if Johnson and Gordon are their usual selves, could this team be a mid-tier unit? If they are, it elevates the entire team, but if they are struggling because of their injuries, this unit is a bottom-10 unit that will give up too many explosive plays and could cost the Bears a victory.

Give me a game prediction and the reasoning for it. Say the thing.

If the thing is a Packers win, I’m not saying the thing. If this game were in Lambeau, I would say the Packers would win this game, but I think the home-field advantage plays a role here for Chicago. I think this game is going to be high scoring. On my podcast, I called it 31 to 27 Chicago, and I’ll stick with that, unless this wind picks up and starts impacting the passing game. I think the Bears are going to run the ball really effectively against the Packers’ front without Parsons and Wyatt. If the Bears run the ball well, they’ll keep the Packers offense off the field and limit the number of chances Jordan Love has for explosive plays against this defense. I’ll stick with my 31 to 27 prediction and, of course, an offseason where the fan bases don’t try to torture each other at all.