Conference Preview: America East Men’s Basketball

Author’s Note: If you didn’t read my pre-season America East preview piece, it might be wise to. This one would make much more sense with that context in mind. 

My name is Tanner McGrath. I’m a Vermont native, a Catamount basketball superfan, and the America East beat writer here at Mid-Major Madness.

And I’m here to tell you:

I’ve been covering the league for six seasons, and this is by far the worst one yet for my beloved low-major conference. 

Here are my current AmEast Power Ratings, with overall records and national rankings included:

YIKES.

But that’s not going to stop me from consuming everything and anything America East basketball over the next three months. I am a sicko for this stuff. 

Let’s check in on where every team stands heading into AmEast play, in order of where I think they’ll finish in the standings.

Typically, I add a little more flair to these pieces, including film cuts, award selections, and so on. To be completely honest with you, I ran out of time and had to skip a bunch of stuff. I hope you still enjoy the long-winded line-by-line analysis — apologies if you get buried in the paragraphs. 

Also, a little programming note: Throughout the conference season, I plan to write weekly previews for the Thursday and Saturday games, along with weekly recaps. The previews will drop on Thursday mornings, and the recaps will fall on Monday nights (probably). It’ll be a good way to keep up with the ins and outs of the league throughout the season, so check in often.

1. Vermont Catamounts

I’m going to get a little nitpicky with my beloved Catamounts, so let’s set a quick baseline for our analysis. 

Vermont is far and away the best team in the America East. The Cats’ offense is the only legit unit in the entire league. 

Gus Yalden will power that offense as the leading candidate for CPOY. The Gus Bus is averaging 17/5/2 on 55%/38%/70% splits. He’s an elite post player (1.32 post-up PPP, 93rd percentile) with an unguardable backdown and turn-through right-handed layup, and he’s an elite passer out of the post when opponents bring the double. 

He’s precisely what head coach John Becker has been looking for. A big man who can pull attention to the interior and open up perimeter shots in a balanced, inside-out, four-around-one motion offense. It’s also nice that you can still run five-out with him and not sacrifice any spacing, given he’s got a shockingly smooth shooting stroke — I had no idea the guy could rip it like that. 

With Yalden on the interior and the TJs (Long and Hurley, if you didn’t know) running around screens (1.14 off-ball screen PPP, 75th percentile) and knocking down shots on the perimeter, the Cats’ half-court offense should hum all the way through March. 

We could stop here. But what’s the fun in that?

The questions surrounding the Catamounts are the same as they were in the preseason: lineup constructions around Gus and the wings, and defense. Those issues go hand in hand. 

Regarding the former, I’m still working through my thoughts on the point guard position.

Sean Blake has gotten most of the run at that spot, and to his credit, I think he’s played pretty well. He’s shooting a bit better of late, and he’s always been an enticing option off the bounce with his explosive first step and decent passing vision (4.1 APG; 1.05 ball-screen PPP, 77th percentile). 

But he still hasn’t totally solved his turnover issues (2.8 per game at a 25% rate), and he’s a lousy POA defender (1.00 ball-screen PPP allowed, 27th percentile). 

The other option, Lucas Mari, has a far higher upside but clearly hasn’t come close to hitting his ceiling. While he flashes moments of brilliance as a ball-screen navigator and passer, he has been far too inconsistent in that role (.83 ball-screen PPP, 37th percentile). I expected him to be a nightmare as a downhill off-the-bounce playmaker, but he simply hasn’t been that impactful yet. But it’s still early, and transitioning from Spanish pro ball to the monster that is the America East might take some time. 

It’s worth mentioning that by most advanced metrics, Blake is the obvious choice. But that analysis is a tad shortsighted. If Mari can grow into a more consistent dribble-drive initiator, he’s likely a better shooter than Blake, and almost certainly a better defender (.70 ball-screen PPP allowed, 71st percentile) — for a team that hasn’t stopped anyone off the dribble this season (more on that later), that might be needed. 

As a quick aside, I expect Ben Johnson to be the first point guard off the bench, and that’s good. He’s a defensive liability and not the best ball mover, but he’s hit over 40% of his triples this year while posting the third-highest OBPR on the team (+2.09). I don’t think we’ll see a ton of it, but the three-man off-ball screening sets that Johnson can run with the TJs are wicked. 

Those three have shared the court for 45 minutes this year. In those minutes, Vermont has posted an offensive rating of 131.5 and a defensive rating of 131.5. It might not be smart basketball, but I just want to watch more of that for enjoyment’s sake. 

OK, back to the point: John Becker has shifted Mari down to the four spot often this year, given he’s a massive dude who can hold his own as a wing defender, post defender, and rebounder. Plus, it gives Vermont some interesting dual-point guard lineups at times. 

However, that means you have to take Noah Barnett off the court, which is a tough ask when the sophomore is having a full-on breakout season. He’s a monster on the offensive glass, has scored at-will on the block (1.44 post-up PPP, 99th percentile; 75% 2-point shooting), has walled up on defense (.63 post-up PPP allowed, 78th percentile) while providing rim protection. 

That also brings us to a more critical point: as a slow-footed, grounded big man, Yalden won’t provide much defense. And, aside from Mari, none of the perimeter guys have stayed in front of the dribble (.99 ball-screen PPP allowed, 10th percentile). So, you’ve got a lousy perimeter defense combined with nobody to clean up the mess on the interior, meaning the Catamounts haven’t stopped a soul so far. 

The Cats flashed solid defense just once in the non-con, during the Pepperdine-Merrimack-Siena three-game stretch. What happened? David Simon returned, and the Catamounts started playing almost exclusively two-big lineups, which really helped wall off the rim. 

Simon missed the past two games against Iona and Princeton, and the defense struggled. 

Ultimately, I think the Catamounts need to run two-big lineups with the trio of Yalden, Barnett, and Simon. Otherwise, they’ll be in high-variance shootouts all season. That puts Mari in an awkward spot, but it might force him to play his way into more minutes at point, potentially hitting his ceiling and creating the best-case two-way scenario — if he can be himself on defense and Blake on offense, the Cats five-man lineup would be a legit threat in the NCAA Tournament. 

At the minimum, at least the Cats are rebounding well (eight second-chance points per game allowed, 99th percentile) and sustaining Becker’s patented elite transition defense (six fast-break points per game allowed, 98th percentile). 

2. UMBC Retrievers

OK, UMBC hasn’t really played anybody. The Retrievers’ SOS leaves much to be desired. 

But I don’t care. This is still the second-best team in the AmEast. 

They’ve mostly taken care of business against lower-end teams — save for that gross three-point home loss to Army — and they’ve put genuine scares into Dayton (six-point loss), Georgetown (nine-point loss), and Buffalo (four-point loss). 

The offense looks the same. Jim Ferry’s guard-centric motion offense is moving off the ball well (.96 off-ball screen PPP, 53rd percentile), sharing the ball well, and shooting well (35% from 3). Surprisingly, Ferry has seriously pumped the brakes this season (224th nationally in adjusted tempo), but the Retreivers’ speedy little guys are still deadly in the open court (1.15 transition PPP, 73rd percentile). 

Regarding those guards, Ace Valentine has exceeded expectations (10/5/5 on 56% from the field and 43% from 3), especially as a rebounder (more on that soon). Ferry has put a lot of trust in Jah’Likai King as the team’s top scoring option (15 PPG on a team-high 13 FGA per game) with Devin Ceaser injured. King is an uber-explosive shot-creator and fun to watch, although I wish he would take fewer mid-range jumpers. 

But the surprise breakout guard has been DJ Armstrong Jr. 

The son of NBA veteran Darrell Armstrong announced himself to the Northeast basketball community with back-to-back miracle game-winners but has since established himself as a legitimate, well-rounded offensive threat, averaging 14 PPG. He’s still at his best as an off-ball sniper (42% from 3; 1.16 off-ball screen PPP, 74th percentile), but he’s a rock-solid secondary ball-handling option averaging over three assists per game while sliding in as a low-usage ball-screen initiator (.93 PPP, 70th percentile). He’s also electric in transition (1.46 PPP, 92nd percentile).

Throw in his rock-solid perimeter defense (.65 ball-screen PPP allowed, 70th percentile; .69 spot-up PPP allowed, 81st percentile), and Armstrong has been the AmEast’s most impactful player by BPR (+1.85, the only one that grades out above average on both ends of the court). 

I love the guys Ferry plucked from Division-II, and the Texas Permian Basin transfer looks to be his prized jewel. 

The frontcourt situation has been weird. 

My preseason pick for CPOY, Josh Odunowo, started the season injured and has played a surprisingly limited role since returning. I’m hopeful that we’ll see his usage increase to his normal levels as the season progresses. 

I’m sad to say that Jose Roberto Tanchyn hasn’t been the breakout candidate that I hoped he would be. Instead, freshman Riley Jacobs has stepped in as a reliable defensive anchor (+0.49 DBPR), starting every game for the Retrievers at the five. 

None of these guys can hang one-on-one in the post (1.14 PPP allowed, third percentile), so opponents have targeted the Retrievers down there consistently (eight post-up PPG allowed, most nationally). 

However, despite these potential issues, UMBC’s defense has improved substantially, making the exact changes that could make it a threat in the America East. 

For starters, in probably the single most crucial year-over-year change for any team in the America East, everybody is rebounding. The Retrievers are getting boards from Valentine at point, Dickerson and Diggs on the wing, and Odunowo and Jacobs in the frontcourt. With everyone crashing the glass, UMBC ranks an unfathomable 63rd nationally in defensive rebounding rate (73%), just a year removed from ranking 335th in the same metric (66%). 

Just finishing possessions on the defensive end would be enough for the team to improve mightily, but UMBC went one step further. 

The perimeter defense has been borderline dynamite. A massive shout-out to Dickerson, who has been uber-impactful as a low-usage two-way wing who holds his ground on defense, makes all his interior shots (61%), and has chipped in a 19% defensive rebounding rate. At the same time, Diggs, Armstrong, Valentine, and King all grade out above-average against the dribble. 

So, ironically, the interior defense has improved mightily despite UMBC not adding any impactful interior defenders, because everyone is swarming against the dribble. They also don’t have to play much help defense because everyone is super sticky in their base man-to-man, meaning they’re also running everyone off the 3-point line (33% 3-point rate allowed, 27th-lowest nationally). 

Last year, opposing offenses could either dump the ball down into the post for an easy bucket or drive into the lane for an easy bucket. This year, they can only do the former, which has made a massive difference in their defensive profile — the Retreivers rank above-average nationally in 2-point shooting allowed (50%) and average 2-point distance allowed (6.1 feet) after ranking sub-300th in both metrics last season. 

I adore this team. The guards rock, the ball movement is electric, and the defense is improving at every turn. 

You know what’s better? I see this team getting better in conference play. 

Opponents are shooting 37% from 3 against the Retrievers, which is an unsustainable rate that should positively regress in conference play (ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts allowed). 

And imagine if Odunowo gets his mojo back in the scoring department? The offense could add another deadly bucket-getting option, and arguably their most efficient one. UMBC could use a few more post buckets, as I think it’d help the spacing (the Retrievers rank a surprising 320th nationally in ShotQuality’s spacing metric). 

Somewhat related to Odunowo, UMBC has also been dealing with injuries across the lineup throughout the non-conference. Imagine if Ferry gets all his guys fully healthy? I’m hopeful that Ceaser can get back at some point, although I’m worried about King missing the team’s final non-con game against Coppin State. 

Look, Gus Bus is going to destroy UMBC when those two meet up. But I’m dangerously close to believing the Retrievers can put a scare into the Catamounts. 

3. Bryant Bulldogs

I’m more bullish on Bryant than my numbers are, for a bunch of reasons. 

For starters, the Bulldogs have played a murderer’s row of defenses, the 24th-hardest nationally. Their offensive profile is gross, and there are reasons for that beyond just a demanding schedule. Still, it doesn’t help when an entirely new roster with a new head coach has to try to install a brand-new system against Siena, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, UConn, High Point, and Marist. 

Additionally, the Bulldogs are sporting a -8.1% 3-point delta (29% 3-point shooting, 37% 3-point shooting allowed; the second-worst mark in the conference), and considering they rank top-50 nationally in both 3-point rate and 3-point rate allowed, positive regression in that area would significantly alter the Bulldogs’ analytical profile. 

The Bulldogs are also sporting a +4% non-steal turnover delta (8.4% on offense, 260th nationally; 4.6% on defense, 364th nationally), which isn’t as impactful, but non-steal turnovers are a super non-sticky statistic and a 4% shift in their actual turnover differential would really help a currently disastrous mark (+62, second percentile and the second-worst mark in the conference). 

I’m also pretty bullish on the defense. The Bulldogs are the nation’s fifth-tallest team by average height, and Jamion Christian leverages their length and versatility in the right ways by leaning into their switchability. The Bulldogs are hanging tough in ball-screen coverage, forcing tough isolation sets, and ruthlessly denying catch-and-shoot opportunities. 

Quincy Allen is the most athletic player in the conference. He’s an absolute weapon at this level. And while he has some serious deficiencies on offense (more on that later), he’s been a devastatingly disruptive defender, ranking in the top 80 among all college basketball players in Hakeem rate (11%) behind over three stocks per game (1.7 steals, 1.6 blocks). He also holds up well as a dribble defender. 

There have been a few duds, especially the Marist game (you can’t let the Red Foxes drop 80 on you). However, there have been more good moments than bad, including the games against Iona, Stonehill, Harvard, UConn, and Virginia Tech. 

Ultimately, I think this is one of the better defensive units in the conference. It’s going to be tough to score over all that length. 

Unfortunately, the offense is still a mess. 

I noted in my last AE Column that Bryant was running far more motion-based principles than I expected. That’s fine, but it was clear the guys were still trying to figure out this new offense, as so many possessions were ending with a 3-point shot from a wing who can’t shoot. 

Over the past few games, Christian has started running more spread pick-and-roll sets, which is what I expected in the pre-season. However, freshman Ty Tabales hasn’t quite found his footing as a ball-screen initiator, averaging just .76 PPP (25th percentile) with a few too many turnovers. 

Tabales is starting to meet expectations as a shooter, and he’s averaging over three assists per game at a 28% rate. He’s a frosh guard — he’s going to have his ups and downs, but he should improve as the season progresses, especially against worse competition. 

However, fellow freshman Timofei Rudovskii looks like a fully-formed product. The 6-foot-9 Russian has proven himself a dynamic scoring wing with surprisingly elite off-the-bounce skills for his massive frame. He’s leading the team in scoring (12 PPG) while shooting 50% from inside the arc and 37% from deep. 

He’s been the team’s best spot-up player (1.33 PPP, 93rd percentile), and he’s been deadly in DHO actions, with Bryant often using him and center Keegan Harvey together in some big-to-big actions. He’s also probably the team’s second-best defender, and he’s leading the team in rebounding (five per game). 

All in all, Rudovskii is my frontrunner for Conference Freshman of the Year. What a find by Christian. 

I think you can build a half-decent offense around Tabales and Rudovskii, but the rest of the pieces worry me. 

Allen will chip in his usual 10 points a night, but he’s still a dangerously inefficient scorer who’s only really effective as a downhill rim-runner. Keegan Harvey has been mostly a disappointment as a roller (.67 PPP, 11th percentile), poster (.57 PPP, 10th percentile), and shooter (16% from 3). Ashley Sims hasn’t shot the ball well (16% from 3), and there doesn’t seem to be much shooting on the bench. 

Bryant ranks 319th nationally in ShotQuality’s Shot Making metric. For an offense that ranks 12th nationally in 3-point rate, that’s not ideal. 

Some things will improve in conference play after a demanding non-conference schedule. But personally, I think a serious scheme change is needed on the offensive end, as I don’t think Christian is getting the right shots for the right players, at least yet. 

4. Albany Great Danes

The whole Will Richardson situation sucks.

That said, I ripped on him in my preseason preview, so this might be a tiny addition-by-subtraction issue. 

Of course, the rest of the Danes need to get healthy. Ife West-Ingram has been on and off the court. Nas Muhammad missed a few games. Abdoulaye Fall and Sully Adewale have been MIA. 

However, through all that, Albany has actually played half-decent ball. 

Yeah, the Danes have precisely one Division-II win, but they’ve also played just one opponent outside the top-200 nationally in my power ratings, smoking Stony Brook on the road. 

Among AmEast squads, only New Hampshire played a tougher non-conference schedule than Albany, so the Danes’ 4-11 record should be viewed in context. 

In that context, Amir Lindsey has played like a First-Team All-Conference point guard. He’s averaging 17/4 while taking a team-high 14 FGA per game and shooting 37% from deep. The Danes don’t run a ton of ball-screens, but Lindsey has been effective as a PNR passer (1.17 PPP). 

Instead, Albany has leaned into a ton of iso ball, with JUCO transfer Jaden Kempson sliding into Richardson’s spot as a top scoring option. In straight ISO sets, he’s been fine (.95 PPP, 62nd percentile), but the shooting splits haven’t looked great (44% from 2, 31% from 3). 

Still, he’s a bucket-getter who can give you 12 points a night, and he’ll dish out his fair share of assists as a secondary lead ball-handler (three per game). The best thing that Lindsey and Kempson do is hunt for fouls, with the two combining for nearly nine FTA per game. 

Muhammad has been a bust so far. He knows his role as an off-ball shooter, but he’s not making enough 3s (shooting just 33%) to compensate for the fact that he’s a non-ball mover, a non-rebounder, and an atrocious defender (-2.42 DBPR; 1.14 ball-screen PPP allowed, eighth percentile). 

All three guards have been dreadful as dribble defenders (1.00 ball-screen PPP allowed, 10th percentile), which has brutalized Albany’s interior defense and forced Dwayne Killings to start playing with a matchup amoeba zone — to little success (1.08 PPP allowed, 24th percentile; Yale tee’d off on it). 

As the team has played more zone, the defensive rebounding has taken a hit. Albany’s allowing a whopping 15 second-chance points per game (sixth percentile) while ranking sub-330th nationally in defensive rebounding rate (63%). Plus, the zone allows more 3s. 

With West-Ingram on the sideline, Zach Matulu has made an impressive Year 2 jump on the wing. I love watching him play, as he always seems to make the right plays and do all the little things right. He only gives you nine a night but does so super efficiently (58% from 2, 41% from 3), scores at a high clip in transition (1.65 PPP, 97th percentile) and in spot-up situations (1.12 PPP, 76th percentile), plays solid wing defense against the dribble (.62 ball-screen PPP allowed, 73rd percentile), and snags nearly two steals per game. 

He’s a great low-usage wing to pair at the three alongside Lindsey and Kempson. I’m a big fan. 

I don’t know how I feel about the frontcourt rotations. Each of Okechukwu Okeke, Isaac Abidde, Ma’Kye Taylor, and Yaya Keita has seen minutes this season, and they all bring different things to the table. 

Abidde seems the most playable among the group, given he’s the team’s best defender (+0.47 DBPR, 17% DRB, 3% BLK) and roller (1.09 PPP, 54th percentile). Okeke has scored uber-efficiently on the interior while blocking over two shots per game. 

Albany’s getting all its scoring from the backcourt, as this group of forwards isn’t overly dynamic offensively. At the same time, the Danes are getting all their defense from the frontcourt, as the Lindsey-Kempson backcourt is getting toasted off the bounce. And Nobody is really doing anything all that efficiently. 

Of course, as mentioned, the Danes have done this all against a murderer’s row of borderline-elite mid-major opponents (UMass, Rhode Island, Siena, Colgate, Fordham, Columbia, Yale, FAU, Cornell) while dealing with severe personnel issues. 

So, can this group get healthy and pull it together in a down year for the AmEast? 

My numbers think so, as I have Albany power-rated as the conference’s third-best. At their best, I could see the Danes having a backcourt with tons of scoring pop, paired with a stout defensive frontcourt that can clean up the perimeter issues on the back end. 

But among the conference squads, I feel I’ve learned the least about the Danes in the non-conference. I’ll stay away from making any significant assumptions for now. 

5. New Hampshire Wildcats

Is New Hampshire … good? 

I currently have the Wildcats’ defense power rated as the best in the conference. Belal El Shakery leaves plenty to be desired on offense, but he’s a nightmare as a defensive anchor — he’s tough, mobile, rebounds everything, and records 2.5 stocks per game. 

He has the best DRAPM (+1.7) and DBPR (+1.52) among all AmEast players. If the Wildcats keep trending this way, he might be my DPOY pick. 

New Hampshire’s straight-up half-court defense isn’t great. The Wildcats’ one-on-one defense isn’t great in any specific area. 

However, they do a few things really well.

Their transition (.91 PPP allowed, 88th percentile) and rim (1.06 PPP allowed, 78th percentile) defense have been borderline-elite. El Shakery, Comeh Emuobor, John Squire, Jon O’Neill, and Giannos Xanthopoulos are a physically formidbale group of forwards who also happen to finish almost every possession on the glass (10 second-chance points per game, 66th percentile). 

They also play a shallow drop in ball-screen coverage and do a reasonable job denying catch-and-shoot opportunities by sticking on those off-ball shooters. 

Altogether, Nathan Davis has coached up an untalented but highly competent defense that does plenty of little things right. That’s pretty good in a conference filled with defenses ranging from incompetent to clueless.

The other end of the court is still a mess. The Wildcats are playing heavily through El Shakery and the frontcourt in the post, but nobody has been great in that role. 

As an aside, I think El Shakery can shoot it, but he’s an absurd 1-for-21 from 3 on the season. If he can start making some shots, he could be a rather dangerous stretch five. 

That would open things up for my new favorite America East wing, Jack Graham.

The freshman has come out of nowhere as a microwave off-the-dribble shot-maker. He gave Nebraska, Saint Louis, and Providence — three good defenses — all they could handle in 17-, 18-, and 21-point efforts. 

He’s got a smooth pull-up game, is deadly in transition (1.54 PPP, 95th percentile), and has proved valuable as a low-usage ball-screen initiator (1.33 PP, 97th percentile). If he can start shooting better from 3, watch out. 

The Wildcat offense leaves a ton to be desired, and Davis has to get his guys to play faster. But you can build a potential winner around a Graham-led offense (with a bit of KiJan Robinson sprinkled in, who’s been a solid point guard with a 21% assist rate and 13% turnover rate) and a hard-nosed defense. 

I’m keeping my eye on these Cats. I might have to make a few trips to Durham. 

6. UMass Lowell River Hawks

The River Hawks were a high-variance team entering the season.

I’m starting to think they have figured a few things out and could finish toward the upper end of their outcome range. 

Pat Duquette has mostly figured out the offense. 

He’s still running the same old flex-adjacent, rim-oriented offense. Austin Green has taken the lead as the interior focal point, cutting, rolling, and smashing the offensive glass en route to 13 points per game on nearly 60% shooting. Predictably, he’s averaging 10 paint points per game and the second-chance points per game. He’s also drawing fouls like crazy, but needs to shoot better than 50% from the line (free-throw shooting has been a significant problem in Lowell so far). 

Frosh JJ Massaquoi has burst onto the scene as the secondary big man. He may have been initially billed as a guard, but his 6-foot-6, 240-pound monster frame has made him perfect as a rim-running cutting bully in Duquette’s offense. 

Regarding the backcourt, Duquette has opted for a two-guard system, with Darrel Yepdo and Xavier Spencer splitting ball-handling and distributing duties. While Spencer has exceeded expectations (11 PPG, 4 APG, 4 RPG, 1.2 SPG), Yepdo has fallen short (aside from shooting 42% from 3). 

The bigger problem is that both of them have been throwing the ball away like crazy, as the team ranks 345th nationally in offensive turnover rate — Green, Yepdo, and Spencer have combined for 7.5 per game. Turnovers have long haunted the River Hawks, and this year seems to be no different. 

The wing situation is interesting. Jared Frey has fallen flat on his face, while Shawn Simmons and Isaiah Walter have gotten hurt. Angel Montas and Khalil Farmer have stepped up in different ways — Farmer with his shooting, Montas with his ball-movement. 

I’m most excited to see what Victor Okojie does with his minutes. He’s an impactful two-way wing/forward ‘tweener who can score efficiently inside the arc with some enticing on-ball skills. 

The defense is atrocious. 

Yepdo has not been the POA bully-ball defender I expected him to be, while Spencer, Farmer, and Walter have struggled alongside him (.95 ball-screen PPP allowed, sixth percentile). At the same time, the River Hawks are running really small on the interior, so they’re not cleaning up any messes, protecting the rim, or rebounding. The Hawks are currently allowing 38 paint points per game (10th percentile) and 14 second-chance points per game (14th percentile). 

But based on their offense alone, I have this team power-rated as a top-four team in the AmEast. I like their chances of scoring enough to compete for a home playoff game. 

7. Binghamton Bearcats

I’m lost on Binghamton. 

I was so high on the Bearcats entering the season, but they’ve just taken hit after hit. 

Everyone has gotten hurt. At one point, Levell Sanders was down to six healthy rotation guys. He’s entering the conference season with Demetrius Lilley and Bryson Wilson — two of the prized portal grabs of this offseason — potentially injured. 

They haven’t hit a shot all season (27% 3-point shooting), and everyone has shot the lights out against them (38% 3-point shooting allowed). 

They’ve been super unlucky. 

At the same time, Jeremiah Quigley has played his heart out, racking up over six assists per game at a 42% rate. The Bearcats are still rolling, cutting, and rim-running at a decent clip, also ranking third nationally in free-throw rate (51%). Before his injury, Lilley was nearly averaging a double-double (15 points, nine assists). 

Yet, also at the same time, the Bearcats have run into the exact same problem as last season — turnovers. Their +64 turnover differential is the worst in the conference, and they rank sub-350th in both offensive and defensive turnover rate. 

Just as it did last season, their turnover issues are tied directly to their inability to defend in transition. Binghamton ranks second-to-last nationally in transition PPP allowed (1.29). It’s not exactly defending well in the half-court, either. 

As a result, Binghamton is 1-11 against Division-I competition despite playing one of the softest schedules in the nation — the 11th-easiest to be exact. They’ve been blown out by two top-100 teams (Pittsburgh by 40, Syracuse by 38) and have lost to six sub-300 teams. 

I currently have Binghamton power-rated as the worst team in the America East and the fourth-worst team nationally. However, I’m still of the opinion that the talent, combined with some better injury and shooting luck, can help this team avoid the bottom of the barrel. 

But I really don’t know. 

8. NJIT Highlanders

To be completely frank with you, dear reader, I have totally missed my deadline on this piece and need to wrap it up. Here are some short thoughts on NJIT. 

The shine from the Highlanders’ 3-1 start has worn off, and the offense has sunk into the basement. 

I’m still a firm believer in freshman David Bolden, the leading scorer and Tariq Francis replacement. And I actually haven’t minded bringing Sebastian Robinson off the bench. 

But in the end, the offense has devolved into what it’s always been, a gross ISO-fest that doesn’t create any easy buckets and relies on the shot-making prowess of some not-quite-talented-enough guards. 

The Highlanders rank 351st in 2-point shooting (43%), 361st in paint points per game (22), and 318th in average 2-point distance (7 feet). At the same time, they’re consistently jacking up mid-range and above-the-break dribble jumpers, which can be fun, but are ultimately ineffective in the modern era. 

The defense ain’t half bad, which is nice. The Highlanders have a reliable half-court dribble-denial defense and a good transition defense, but they’ve been beaten up on the block and on the boards. I like some of the frontcourt pieces on that end, including Ari Fulton, Jordan Rogers, and Malachi Arrington. 

Of note, Melvyn Ebonkoli has recently returned from injury, and he could have another positive impact on the defense. We should see NJIT in plenty of grinders for the rest of the year. 

9. Maine Black Bears

It’s over for Maine. 

The Black Bears are 1-13 against Division-I competition. They lost their best player, Killian Gribben, for the season. They also lost one of their point guard options, Darius Lopes, for the season. It’s worth noting that a former assistant coach texted me saying he thought Lopes would’ve been “the best freshman in the conference.” 

Chris Markwood is left to pick up the pieces. 

He’s done some good things. In classic Markwood fashion, the guard trio of Logan Carey, Mekhi Gray, and Bashir N’Galang are hard-nosed and disruptive, so the Black Bears are starting to force turnovers again (20% rate, 60th nationally). Ace Flagg has flashed some solid defensive skills at the four. 

Unfortunately, Markwood’s extended pressure scheme often leaves the Bears vulnerable at the rim and on the boards, and the Bears have been smashed there without Gribben. Flagg and Keelan Steele can’t quite keep up. 

The defense will still be solid — I have them power-rated as the league’s second-best — but it won’t be nearly enough to compensate for an offense that, predictably, has fallen off a cliff without Kellen Tynes, Jaden Clayton, AJ Lopez, Quion Burns, and Chris Mantis. 

The Bears have almost zero competent dribble creators in the ball-screen motion offense. They’re all turning the ball over (23% rate, 361st nationally), and there’s no shooting or spacing anymore. 

I am still a massive fan of TJ Biel. I’ll be watching him intently through conference play. 

I still fully believe in Markwood, but it’s going to be a long rebuilding year up in Orono.