You’re Nuts: How will Ohio State men fare in January?

Ah yes, January. For Ohio State fans, especially those who follow the men’s basketball team religiously, the first month of the year has become a boogeyman that they think their team just can’t seem to shake. The Buckeyes (9-3, 1-1) have nine games in January — the most of any month of the season — starting with Rutgers tonight. Over the next nine days, they’ll also face No. 13 Nebraska at home, and follow that with a Pacific Northwest trip to face Oregon and Washington.

The narrative that the Buckeyes are always bad in January is a bit worn down and perhaps a bit exaggerated, because over the past five Januarys, Ohio State has finished .500 or better in three of them, including a 4-4 record last January. In total, the Buckeyes are 19-22 in the month of January over the past five seasons.

The reason some Ohio State fans think that January is where the Buckeyes’ season typically goes to die is probably because of the 2022-2024 seasons. Those two years, Ohio State combined to go 4-13 in the first month of the year, ultimately contributing to Chris Holtmann’s abrupt firing on Valentine’s Day 2024. Those two Januaries were miserable, but every January has not been that miserable.

Last week, Connor and Justin debated whether Ohio State would ever find its three-point shot again. Ohio State is currently tied for 13th in the Big Ten in three-point shooting at 33.7%. Last season, Ohio State shot 36.8% – the fourth-best team in the Big Ten at shooting the long ball.

Connor said no, what you see is more or less what you get, because Ohio State’s three best three-point shooters — Bruce Thornton, Devin Royal, and John Mobley — are all shooting better than 38% this year. Expecting guys off the bench to suddenly become knockdown three-point shooters or for Christoph Tilly to start knocking them down after starting 4-for-34 feels like wishful thinking.

Justin said the shooting will improve, mostly because Tilly and Brandon Noel are so far below their career averages, and he is confident that both of them will see some positive regression towards their averages. He also said that more playing time for Taison Chatman — who is 6-for-9 from three this season — could improve Ohio State’s three-point percentage as a team.

Ohio State starts a nine-game January slate later tonight — nine games in 31 days, or one game every three days, on average. A bad January could crush Ohio State’s March Madness dreams, but a positive one could put them on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble heading into February. What say you?

This week’s question: How will Ohio State fare in January?

Connor: 4-5

I think Ohio State will go 4-5 in January, which will have them sitting at 5-6 in the Big Ten heading into February, where their first three Big Ten games of that month will be Maryland, Michigan, and USC. If things play out this way, Ohio State will probably be on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, but will have plenty of opportunities against great teams to improve that resume.

Ohio State was also 5-6 through the first 11 games of the Big Ten schedule last season, and the end result was a 9-11 record in conference play and being one of the first four teams left out of the NCAA Tournament.

Rutgers is one of the worst Big Ten teams of the past decade, so I’ll cautiously take them to win on the road Friday night. However, Nebraska is a wagon this year, and Ohio State struggled with the Cornhuskers last year when they weren’t nearly as good, so I think Nebraska gets the win in Columbus.

Oregon and Washington will end the season having comparable Big Ten records, I think, but most fans would probably be satisfied if Ohio State is able to split the two games in the Pacific Northwest next week.

Ohio State will split the two home games against UCLA and Minnesota — the Bruins have yet to put it all together, but they are an elite three-point shooting team (39.8%) and historically have played great defense under Mick Cronin. Minnesota is a team that Ohio State has to beat at home.

The final three games of January are: at Michigan, home against Penn State, and at Wisconsin.

Michigan is the best team in the conference and the country. Ohio State will be double-digit underdogs in that game, and KenPom gives the Buckeyes just a 5% chance to win in Ann Arbor, so I will take the Wolverines there. Penn State is another bottom-dwelling Big Ten team that Ohio State has to beat if they’re serious about playing in the NCAA Tournament. On a neutral floor or at home, I think Ohio State probably beats Wisconsin, but the Buckeyes have lost three in a row at the Kohl Center, so I lean toward Wisconsin there, too.

Justin: 6-3

I think the Buckeyes will go 6-3 in the month of January. And they pretty much have to go 6-3 or better, because compared to January, February is much more difficult. There are three games in January that they must win, and two games that I don’t see them having much of a chance to win.

The three must-wins are at Rutgers on Jan. 2, at home against Minnesota on Jan. 20, and at home against Penn State on Jan. 26. Those are simply the three worst teams in the conference and games that you win if you want to have any chance at the NCAA Tournament this season.

The two games I do not think they have much of a chance to win are at home against UCLA on Jan. 17 and at Michigan on Jan. 23. UCLA is a bad matchup for the Buckeyes as currently constructed, and Michigan is the best team in the country, along with Arizona.

That puts Ohio State at 3-2. I have confidence they can win both of the West Coast games at Oregon and at Washington to put them at 5-2. And I think they will beat Wisconsin and lose to Nebraska, to make them 6-3 in January.