2025 Holiday Bowl Preview: Arizona Wildcats vs. SMU Mustangs

Game notes

• Time and date: Friday, January 2 at 8:00 p.m. ET
• Network: FOX
• Location: Snapdragon Stadium — San Diego, CA
• Spread: Arizona (-1.5)
• Over/under: 52.5
• All-time series: Series tied, 1-1
• Last meeting: Arizona 28, SMU 6 — October 5, 1985
• Current streak: Arizona, 1 (1985)
• Arizona last bowl: 2023 Alamo Bowl, 38-24 win over Oklahoma
• SMU last bowl: 2024 CFP First Round, 38-10 loss to Penn State
• 2024 Holiday Bowl matchup: Syracuse 52, Washington State 35

Setting the scene

The 2025 college football season is coming to a close. When the Holiday Bowl is complete Friday night, there are only three games left on the docket. So it’s time to cherish our waning moments of this great sport until August 2026 rolls around.

And the 2025 Holiday Bowl presents one treat of a matchup. The Arizona Wildcats (9-3, 6-3 Big 12) enjoyed a tremendous bounce-back season and are encroaching on their fifth 10-win season in program history and second in the last three years. The SMU Mustangs (8-4, 6-2 ACC) just missed out on their second-straight College Football Playoff appearance, but aim to rebound and produce their first bowl win since 2012.

It’s been 40 years since these two collided on the gridiron. The winner likely comes out with a ranking beside its name.

Arizona Wildcats outlook

Arizona struggled mightily in year one of Big 12 membership, but the Wildcats triumphantly clawed back to the Top 25 under second-year head coach Brent Brennan. Although it’s with a different coach, this season somewhat feels like déjà vu from 2023 where the Wildcats rattled off 7-straight wins to conclude their schedule. This time, Arizona rides a 5-game win streak headed into its first Holiday Bowl appearance since 2009.

Arizona can contribute much of its offensive success to a resurgent campaign from quarterback Noah Fifita. Fifita was a full-fledged freshman phenom in 2023 with 2,869 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and six interceptions for a 10-3 Wildcat squad. After a down 2024, Fifita unlocked the best version of himself and sits at 2,963 yards, 26 touchdowns, and five interceptions entering his second bowl start — earning First Team All-Big 12 honors in the process.

Fifita first made a splash working with a standout receiver in Tetairoa McMillan, but in his first season without the current NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, the quarterback has worked well with a balanced receiving corps. Kris Hutson is the top option with 57 catches for 740 yards; however, three other Wildcat targets have at least 350 yards on the year — Javin Whatley, Tre Spivey, and Chris Hunter. It’s a very wide receiver dominated passing game, as no tight ends or running backs rank in the roster’s top six in receptions nor receiving yards.

Arizona’s running backs also play a vital role in this 26th-ranked scoring offense. It’s a three-man group featuring Ismail Mahdi, Kedrick Reescano, and Quincy Craig, who all handle the rock quite often. Mahdi and Craig demonstrate explosiveness with over 6.0 yards per carry apiece, while Reescano has the team-lead with nine touchdowns in 2025.

As strong as Arizona’s offense was, defense proved to be the calling card of Brennan’s second Wildcat team. Defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales is the architect behind one of the country’s best passing defenses. Toledo is the only other FBS program besides Arizona ranking in the top five nationally in both fewest passing yards allowed (156) and lowest opponent completion percentage (53.0).

Five-straight opponents managed fewer than 200 passing yards on this vaunted defense (including Baylor’s 4th-ranked passing offense) ,Accordingly, Arizona landed four All-Big 12 defensive back selections, including two First Teamers. Cornerbacks Treydan Stukes and Jay’Vion Cole each corralled four interceptions in the regular season in addition to lockdown defense. Strong safety Dalton Johnson also landed four picks along with a team-high 97 tackles, while free safety Genesis Smith recorded 77 stop, broke up eight passes, and forced a pair of fumbles.

With interceptions to go around the entire defensive backfield, Arizona is third in the FBS in total takeaways with 28 (19 interceptions, 9 fumble recoveries), and no program currently boasts a better average turnover margin than the Wildcats’ +1.33 per game. They’re slightly more vulnerable against the run, ranked 63rd in yards surrendered per game. However, Arizona still lets up fewer than 4.0 per attempt, with defensive tackle Deshawn McKnight serving as a disruptive presence with 11.0 tackles for loss.

SMU Mustangs outlook

SMU entered the ACC as the ultimate underdog, and two years in, the Mustangs are clearly a force to be reckoned with in the league. Heading into the final week of the regular season, SMU appeared bound for a second-straight ACC title game. However, the Mustangs allowed a last-minute touchdown at California — dropping just their second conference matchup in 16 tries since joining the ACC (and both were on last-minute lead changes).

SMU missed out on a trip to Charlotte for the championship, as well as a second-consecutive College Football Playoff appearance. Although the disappointment stings, Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs can quickly quell that feeling by attaining something the program hasn’t done in over a decade — win a bowl game. SMU has switched conferences twice since it last prevailed in the 2012 Hawaii Bowl over Fresno State. The program rides a 5-bowl losing streak, and the majority of those unfolded in lopsided fashion.

The Mustangs can arrive to San Diego confidently by placing their faith in quarterback Kevin Jennings, who is slated to return for his third year as a starter in 2026. Jennings is 15th in the FBS in passing yards and 16th in touchdowns prior to the Holiday Bowl, firing over 3,300 yards on a 66.1 completion rate. The quarterback played on a nicked up ankle throughout the entire season but showed progress during his later games — firing for over 300 in three of his last four starts.

However, the ankle clearly limited Jennings’ mobility, as his rushing total plummeted from 354 to 50 year-over-year. SMU didn’t dabble too heavily in the run game this year, and the Mustangs are currently ranked 125th in attempts. They’re 65th in rushing average though and displayed notable improvement down the stretch of the season, as Chris Johnson Jr. rushed for 128 in the final while T.J. Harden posted 130 and 90 in the two games prior.

SMU’s strongest position group offensively is its receiving corps, which includes a dynamic tight end duo in RJ Maryland and Matthew Hibner. The team’s leader in receiving yards is Jordan Hudson at 749, and he’ll make his sendoff performance as a Mustang in San Diego after a stellar three years in Dallas. Romello Brinson is the top deep threat, picking up 14.8 yards per reception as a frequented option on deep posts and streaks. Yamir Knight is the short-yardage specialist, thriving with contested catches and hauling in five touchdowns.

Defensively, the Mustangs were quite sturdy, allowing 24.7 points per game. They only allowed north of 24 points in three contests and finished 0-3 in such matchups. Although it’s a completely different grouping, just like last year, the strength of SMU’s defense under Scott Symons is the d-line. Isaiah Smith earned Second Team All-ACC honors at defensive end, registering 8.5 sacks and an ACC-best 17.0 tackles for loss. Cam Robertson, Terry Webb, and Jeffrey M’ba also generated at least 7.0 TFLs in a unit that ranks 17th in the FBS in sacks per game.

With great pressure comes great turnover output. SMU specializes in havoc plays, checking in at fifth in the nation with 27 takeaways and ninth in turnover margin. The Mustangs snatch interceptions left and right, with First Team All-ACC free safety Ahmaad Moses and longtime starting strong safety Isaiah Nwokobia as the key playmakers.

However, SMU’s passing defense can be of concern when the turnovers aren’t there, as it ranks second to last — only ahead of Stanford — in aerial yards allowed.

Prediction

The key matchup in this one involves SMU’s passing offense vs. Arizona’s passing defense. Both are elite at what they do, and something has to give. The Wildcats have done a stand-up job since mid-October on eliminating almost everything through the air. But Kevin Jennings only had one game with fewer than 247 passing yards this year, and it’s likely the quarterback can still inflict some damage to keep SMU’s offense afloat.

Both teams force turnovers at a high clip, but generating takeaways is more essential for the Mustangs in this game, because they need to prevent their struggling pass defense from rearing its head. Noah Fifita matches up excellently against this unit, and a higher-scoring game should favor Arizona in this one. Wildcats secure win No. 10 for the second time since 2023.

Prediction: Arizona 38, SMU 28