Oh, this won’t be fun. The Jays picked up Brendon Little in November 2023, in a trade for cash. Little was a first round draft pick in 2023. He pitched in 49 games in 2024 with a 3.74 ERA, 0.1 bWAR with 1 save, 7 holds and 3 blown saves. Not bad for a guy […]
Oh, this won’t be fun.
The Jays picked up Brendon Little in November 2023, in a trade for cash. Little was a first round draft pick in 2023.
He pitched in 49 games in 2024 with a 3.74 ERA, 0.1 bWAR with 1 save, 7 holds and 3 blown saves. Not bad for a guy who, until that point, had less than an inning of MLB experience.
This year?
| WAR | W | L | ERA | G | GS | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP | WHIP | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | 4 | 2 | 3.03 | 79 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 68.1 | 48 | 28 | 23 | 2 | 45 | 4 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 295 | 141 | 2.92 | 1.361 | 2.02 |
Baseball Reference had him at a 1.1 WAR. Fangraphs 1.3, giving him a value of $10.1 million to the Jays.
He had a 2.92 FIP and a 3.37 xFIP.
Brendon had a .297 BABIP (.262 last year). 72.7% of his baserunners were stranded (78.1% last year).
His strikeout rate was 30.8% (up from 18.7 last year), and his walk rate was 15.3% (up from 9.8).
Little’s line drive rate was 17.3% (up from 14.2). Ground ball rate 59.0% (down from an amazing 70.9). Fly ball 23.7% (up from 14.9).
His soft contact was 19.1% (down from 23.4). Hard contact 31.8% (down from 35.0).
Brendon was pretty much equal vs LHB (.195/.304/.297) as RHB (.197/.340/.252).
His soft contact was 20.8% (up from 18.4). Hard contact 27.1% (about the same as last year, 27.2).
He was much better at home (1.60 ERA, .163/.309/.207) than on the road (4.97 ERA, .236/.341/.355).
Brendon was better in the first half (2.03 ERA, .177/.305/.234, in 44.1) than the second half (4.88, .230/.355/.345 in 24 innings)
Little by month:
- April: 0-0, 2.77 ERA in 16 games. In 13 innings, batters hit .220/.304/.340 with 1 home run, 6 walks and 21 strikeouts.
- May: 3-0, 0.00 ERA in 12 games. In 13.1 innings, batters hit .136/.269/.159 with 0 home runs, 7 walks and 16 strikeouts.
- June: 1-1, 3.75 ERA in 11 games. In 12 innings, batters hit .190/.333/.190 with 0 home runs, 9 walks and 17 strikeouts.
- July: 0-0, 4.59 ERA in 12 games. In 10 innings batters hit .205/.340/.410 with 1 home run, 8 walks and 18 strikeouts.
- August: 0-0, 5.23 ERA in 14 games. In 10.1 innings, batters hit .216/.375/.243 with 0 home runs, 9 walks and 9 strikeouts.
- September: 0-1, 2.79 ERA in 14 games. In 9.2 innings, batters hit .212/.325/.303 with 0 home runs, 6 walks and 10 strikeouts.
The Jays were 51-28 in games he appeared.
By Catcher:
- Tyler Heineman: 1.80 ERA. Batters hit .153/.242/.212 in 96 PA.
- Alejandro Kirk: 3.50 ERA. Batters hit .211/.326/.385 in 191 PA.
- Ali Sanchez: 10.80 ERA. Batters hit .333/.455/.333 in 11 PA.
He was better in high leverage spots holding batters to a .167/.292/.233 than in low leverage spots, .218/.316/.398.
Yariel threw 2 innings in 7 appearances (not allowing an earned run in any of those game) and more than one inning in 24 appearances, but never more than two innings.
By catcher:
- Tyler Heineman: 2.62 ERA, batters hit .176/.290/.318 in 24 innings.
- Alejandro Kirk: 3.46 ERA, batters hit .204/.337/.243 in 41.2 innings.
- Ali Sanchez: 3.38 ERA, batters hit .250/.400/.375 in 2.2 innings.
In high leverage spots batters hit .210/.300/.267. Medium leverage batters hit .266/.416/.354. Low .082/.233/.180.
Brendon threw 2 innings once and over an inning 12 other times. He got one out or less 16 times.
The playoffs:
| Series | W | L | ERA | G | GS | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALDS | 0 | 0 | 3.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| ALCS | 0 | 1 | 81.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| WS | 0 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
The season was much better than the playoffs for him. Two home runs allowed during the season and two home runs allowed in the playoffs (in 4 innings).
Things went better for him when they chased his pitches out of the zone.
Baseball Savant shows him as a pitcher of extremes.
- 96th percentile in xBA.
- 100th percentile in whiff rate.
- 92nd percentile in strikeout rate.
- 1st percentile in walk rate.
- 7th percentile in hard hit ball rate.
- 97th percentile in ground ball rate.
His breaking ball value was high (86th percentile), fastball low (39 percentile).
He threw a knuckle curve 46.0% of the time, sinker 45.6%, cutter 7.8% and four seamer 0.6%.
The knuckle curve was the best pitch with batters slugging .185 off of it. But the sinker (.366 slugging) and cutter (.350 slugging) weren’t as good.
Little might be better off with a change of scenery.
Category: General Sports
