Bills vs Eagles predictions, keys to game as Highmark era nears its end

ORCHARD PARK - Sunday afternoon, the penultimate regular-season game in the 53-year history of Highmark Stadium will commence at 4:25 when the Buffalo Bills play host to the Philadelphia Eagles.

It is quite a full-circle bookend matchup because the Eagles were Buffalo’s opponent for the second regular-season game ever played at what was then 80,000-seat Rich Stadium in 1973. And then next week, wrapping it all up perfectly, the Bills will turn out the lights at Highmark against the New York Jets who happened to be the opponent for the very first regular-season game in 1973.

And when you look at the Buffalo and Philadelphia offenses in the year 2025, we might actually see a game that plays out similarly to that one 53 seasons ago, a time when running backs - not quarterbacks or wide receivers - were the biggest offensive stars in the NFL.

The Bills won that game 27-26 on Oct. 7, 1973 when Philadelphia kicker Tom Dempsey - who would later play for the Bills - shanked a last-second chip-shot field goal to gift-wrap the victory for Buffalo.

That day, the Eagles rushed for 275 yards as both Tom Sullivan (155) and Norm Bulaich (104) surpassed the century mark. Not to be outdone, O.J. Simpson ran for 171 of the Bills’ 229 rushing yards on his way to becoming the first player in history to run for more than 2,000 yards in a single season.

Fast forward to Sunday as Buffalo’s James Cook, the NFL’s rushing leader who should be a strong candidate for the offensive player of the year award, squares off with Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley, the man who won the 2024 offensive player of the year when he became the ninth back to reach 2,000 yards.

Josh Allen deservedly gets most of the publicity, but Cook has been every bit as indispensable as the Bills’ lead the league in rushing at 158.9 yards per game and are third in success rate at 46.9%. He had his ninth 100-yard performance of the season in last week’s victory over the Browns, and he holds a 43-yard edge over Jonathan Taylor of the Colts in his quest to become just the second player in Bills history to win an NFL rushing title. Simpson did it four times after the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, while Cookie Gilchrist won two AFL rushing titles in the mid-1960s.

“He can do so many different things, and I think a lot of the things that he does so well, at times people think he can’t do that,” offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. “He’s so powerful when he runs, and he doesn’t get the credit for the way that he runs because of the size, right? We say, ‘Hey, you’re a powerful running back if you’re 5-10 and 225, and you’re a speed running back if you’re 200 pounds.’

“But when you see him hit the hole in some of those duos, I mean, he packs a punch, and he has such a great understanding of the run schemes and what we’re asking him to do now. He’s taken it to another level, which is so cool because a lot of times when guys get paid … but he’s even risen his level of play which speaks to who he is.”

Barkley has not had nearly the success he enjoyed in 2024, his first with the Eagles when he ran for 2,005 yards, plus another 499 in the playoffs as he led them to a Super Bowl title. This season he just crossed the 1,000-yard mark last Saturday when he gained 132 against Washington, only his third 100-yard game of the season, and his average per carry is down 1.7 yards to 4.1.

But he must be salivating as he prepares to face a Bills’ run defense that ranks 30th in the league (144.3 yards per game), has allowed the most rushing TDs (24) and the second-most runs of at least 10 yards (63).

When he was asked about the Eagles’ run game, Bills’ defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said, “They’ve got the ability to run the ball. I mean, they can throw it, they can run it, they can do it all. They have some pretty dang good players over there.”

He’s right. The Bills’ defense will have its hands full trying to defend receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith as well as tight end Dallas Goedert, but how much damage Barkley does will likely be the key for Philadelphia.

Similarly, with Buffalo’s passing game struggling the way it is, Cook should be the No. 1 priority for the Eagles’ defense.

Here’s my preview of the game, followed by my prediction:

The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Jalen Hurts

Hurts has a couple things that Allen doesn’t: First and foremost, a Super Bowl ring, but also a group of skill players that are the envy of many teams in the league. Brown, Smith and Goedert have combined for 202 catches for 2,449 yards and 21 TDs, and that’s not even taking into account the contributions from Barkley on the ground and as a pass catcher (37 catches for 273 yards and two TDs).

Yet rather incredibly, the Eagles have been a sputtering mess at times this season as they have six games where they didn’t even reach 20 points, and they rank 16th in the league in scoring at 23.3 points per game. There’s a lot that goes into this, but part of it has to do with Hurts’ occasional inconsistency as a passer which has led to a poor 37.7% conversion rate on third down (ranked 24th). That said, it’s hard to argue with Hurts’ 62-28 career record as a starter counting the postseason.

Another thing that is inarguable is that Allen is the better QB, and one could only dream of what he could do with the collection of weapons Hurts has at his disposal. The lack of talent around him is one reason why Allen is coming off one of the least productive games of his career as he totaled just 147 total yards and no TDs in Cleveland. It is one of just eight games that he started and finished where he failed to score, and one of the others came earlier this year in the loss to the Texans.

Buffalo Bills who should impact the game

▶ C Connor McGovern: If the Eagles get back stud DT Jalen Carter - he returned to practice this week after sitting out three games with a shoulder injury - he joins forces with fellow stud DT Jordan Davis which makes an already outstanding defense even more ferocious on the inside. The 336-pound Davis is a wrecking ball who is tied for the team lead with 37 stops, defined as a tackle that causes a failed play for the offense. He is the key up front to the Eagles’ run defense which is a little underrated for this reason: While the Eagles rank 21st at 123.5 yards per game, they stack the box (at least eight defenders) on just 12% of run plays which is one reason why their pass defense is so good. They are like Buffalo in that way, willing to sacrifice ground yards to defend the pass.

▶ TE Dalton Kincaid: Waiting, waiting, waiting. This is the second year out of the three he has been with Buffalo that has been ruined by injury. The Bills have been managing his various ailments most of season in the hope that he can be healthy for the playoffs, but at this point, you have to wonder if that’s even working. This would be a good game for Kincaid to shine because the Bills will need some chunk plays in the pass game and Kincaid is pretty much the only player who can provide them when Allen takes to the air.

▶ DT DaQuan Jones: In the final year of his contract, there was some doubt about the viability of the 34-year-old one-tech, but he has quietly had a pretty good season. In fact, Pro Football Focus grades him as the eighth-best player at his position and surprisingly, it’s because they like the way he has helped in the pass rush. In this game, the Bills really need Jones and fellow DT Deone Walker to man up against the run, though, as the Eagles’ 50 runs of at least 10 yards are tied for fifth-most in the league.

▶ S Cole Bishop: This will be a major test for Bishop if Jordan Poyer can’t play. Bishop’s level of play rose dramatically the second Poyer replaced Taylor Rapp and since then, with just a couple exceptions, Bishop has been one of the Bills’ best defenders on a game-to-game basis. He leads the team with 83 tackles, has three picks and two sacks, but if Poyer is out and the Bills have to go with rookie Jordan Hancock or Cam Lewis, the heat rises significantly on Bishop to hold things down in the back end against a team that can attack downfield.

Philadelphia Eagles who should impact the game

▶ WR AJ Brown: After several weeks of blah, during which it was clear he was not happy with his target share and said so, the mercurial physical specimen is peaking at the right time. In the last five games he has 35 catches for 478 yards and four TDs, and he will pose a dilemma for the Bills. Should they travel CB Christian Benford, who can at least come close to matching Brown’s size (both are 6-1, but Brown has 20 pounds on Benford)? If they do that, the Eagles still can go to Smith who is every bit as dangerous, albeit in a different way with his finesse and speed.

▶ LT Jordan Mailata: He’s one of the best in the NFL so no matter who the Bills send his way, Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau often switch sides, it’s going to be a difficult task for them to get home against Hurts who, while not super dynamic, has the ability to break contain and scramble for yardage. Plus, Mailata is a beast as a run blocker and his effectiveness will only be enhanced if the Eagles get their star RT Lane Johnson back for this game. It’s as good a tackle duo as there is in the league.

▶ LB Zach Baun: The player Davis is tied with for the most stops for Philly is Baun who PFF grades as the fifth-best LB in the NFL, and the very best in pass coverage. He leads the Eagles with 117 tackles, has 3.5 sacks, seven pass breakups, a forced fumble and two interceptions, and he does all that because he’s a great athlete who flies around the field with reckless abandon. In this game, though, Baun won’t have his LB partner, Nakobe Dean, who is expected to sit with a hamstring injury.

▶ DE Jaelan Phillips: There is no player on the Philly defense who knows the Bills better than Phillips who came over at the trade deadline from AFC East rival Miami. Phillips has been a great addition as he has 34 QB pressures in the seven games he has played for the Eagles. Jalyx Hunt leads the Eagles with 52 pressures, while DT Moro Ojomo leads with five sacks, but those totals have both come in 15 games.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 20, Eagles 17

It comes down to two things: The Bills are at home, and the game means a little more to them in terms of the postseason. The Eagles have already clinched their division and at least one home playoff game and will not be worse than the No. 3 seed in the NFC. To keep their microscopic AFC East title chances alive, the Bills have to beat Philadelphia.

As far as being the home team, since the start of 2024 counting the postseason, the Bills are 16-1 in their soon-to-be retired home venue. The lone loss was to the Patriots in early October, a game they handed to New England thanks to three turnovers. However, the Eagles have been tough on the road at 5-3 with impressive victories at Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Green Bay so it will be a grind, but I think the Bills will get it done.

Buffalo Bills 2025 schedule

• Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 7 vs. Baltimore Ravens, W 41-40.
• Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 14 at New York Jets, W 30-10.
• Week 3: Thursday, Sept. 18 vs. Miami Dolphins, W 31-21.
• Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 28, vs. New Orleans Saints, W 31-19
• Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 5 vs. New England Patriots, L 20-23
• Week 6: Monday, Oct. 13 at Atlanta Falcons, L 14-24
• Week 7: Bye Week
• Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 26 at Carolina Panthers, W 40-9.
• Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, W 28-21.
• Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 9 at Miami Dolphins, L 13-30.
• Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, W 44-32
• Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 20 at Houston Texans, L 19-23.
• Week 13: Sunday, Nov. 30 at Pittsburgh Steelers, W 26-7.
• Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 7: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, W 39-34.
• Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14 at New England Patriots, W 35-31
• Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21 at Cleveland Browns, W 23-20
• Week 17: Dec. 28 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
• Week 18: Jan. 3-4, vs. New York Jets, TBD

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at [email protected], and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Eagles prediction, keys to NFL Week 17 game