Jacoby Brissett, Kenneth Walker III, Colston Loveland lead Week 17's Regression Files

The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.

Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.

Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).

I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Jahmyr Gibbs during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.

10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 16: Jaylen Warren and Ashton Jeanty explode

Jaylen Warren and Ashton Jeanty are both coming off career days. Despite up-and-down seasons, the future looks bright for both backs.

• Kyle Dvorchak,

Positive Regression Candidates

Mack Hollins (NE)

Hollins isn’t running cold, exactly. He’s fresh off a game in which he caught seven of nine targets for 68 yards. His receiving profile is weirdly incredible though, in ways that make Hollins viable in Week 17 lineups.

A mere four wideouts over the past three weeks have more air yards than Hollins, who has taken over the (highly) valuable downfield role in the New England offense. Over that stretch, Hollins is averaging about 13 air yards per target. It’s not a terribly high variance number. In other words, he can still have the sort of fine-but-not-astounding stat lines he posted in Week 16 against Baltimore. Kayshon Boutte, in case you’re wondering, ran a couple more routes than Hollins in Week 16 but had an 18 percent air yards share, third on the team behind Hollins and Stefon Diggs.

The upside is there for Hollins thanks to the glut of air yards he’s seeing from Drake Maye, the league’s best downfield passer. With a 28.25-point implied total against a down-bad Jets defense that just made Tyler Shough look like vintage Joe Montana, you’re going to want to play your Patriots in Week 17. That includes Hollins.

Colston Loveland (CHI)

If your fantasy league awards points for good usage, Loveland was a smash in Week 16 against the Packers. He had a season-high route participation (81 percent) and was second on the team with three first-read targets.

If you play in a traditional fantasy league, Loveland was less fun in Week 16. He had three catches on four targets for 30 yards against Green Bay. That route rate means something though, and I think folks would do well to consider Loveland’s usage when making their tight end start-sit choices ahead of fantasy championship week.

The Bears will finally get a decent weather game in San Francisco against a pass defense that has proven vulnerable for most of the season, giving up the third most receptions to slot pass catchers in 2025. Since Week 9, the Niners are allowing 83 yards per game to guys operating in the slot, the ninth highest rate in the NFL. Loveland ran about half of his routes from the slot in Week 16. The pieces sometimes fit like that. It’s nice.

Jacoby Brissett (ARI)

The Brissett Gravy Train, fresh out of gravy, finally sputtered to a stop in Week 16 against the Falcons. I like Jacoby’s chances of obtaining more gravy to fuel his glorious train in Week 17 against the Bengals.

If you survived Brissett’s dud against Atlanta, please — I’m begging you — don’t panic and scour the waiver wire for a fill-in QB for championship week. Brissett’s Week 16 should have been at least slightly better, as Trey McBride dropped a pretty easy touchdown.

Play volume was the main issue for Brissett and the Cardinals thanks to the Falcons’ time of possession domination. Brissett managed just 33 drop backs after averaging 49.4 drop backs over the previous four games. Offensive play volume wasn’t the only issue, however. Brissett was a catastrophic 14 percent below his expected completion rate against Atlanta. The Cardinals also kinda sorta gave up, going 7.5 percent below their expected pass rate.

You can’t bench Jacoby — I know him on a first name basis because I’ve seen his excellent Progressive TV ads — against the Bengals in Week 17. The game has a week-leading 53.5 point over-under with the Cardinals sporting a 23.5-point implied total, going against a secondary allowing the NFL’s second highest drop back success rate and third highest drop back EPA. It would be quite the upset if Brissett, a new batch of gravy in his train, doesn’t manage multiple touchdowns here.

Negative Regression Candidates

Parker Washington (JAC)

I wrote up Brian Thomas Jr. in last week’s Regression Files because he had been the air yards merchant for the pass-happy Jaguars over the previous three weeks. BTJ’s air yards profile translated to a usable Week 15 performance. I surmised he’d do the same in Week 16 against a Denver defense allowing the most air yards per game.

It was Parker, as you know, who ate the air yards in Week 16 against the Broncos. Washington had 147 air yards, or 47 percent of the Jaguars’ total team air yards. Thomas ran a route on 88 percent of the team’s drop backs and notched a miserable little 9 percent air yards share, to go along with two miserable little targets (both of them first-read targets, interestingly). I’m not mad. Please stop accusing me of being mad.

The Jaguars offense has been an air yards producing machine in 2025. They average 280 team air yards per game, the fourth highest mark in the NFL (they also rank as one of the pass heaviest red zone offenses). That means more than one — sometimes up to three — pass catchers can get there for fantasy purposes every week.

Washington in Week 15 had a 52 percent route rate and commanded just 16 percent of the Jaguars’ air yards while BTJ led the way with 43 percent of the air yards. The script for who functions as Jacksonville’s primary downfield guy could flip in Week 17. It’s not as if Washington has had this role/profile for weeks and weeks.

Trevor Lawrence targeted Washington on 33 percent of his pass routes last week against Denver, marking a significant jump over his season long rate of 23 percent. Don’t get cute with Washington as a flex in Week 17 against the Colts, and don’t dismiss Thomas out of hand after his Week 16 dud against Denver.

Kenneth Walker III (SEA)

Walker surely sat on a million fantasy benches last Thursday as he went wild against a usually-good Rams front seven to the tune of 100 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. As much as you don’t want to hear this: You were probably right for not playing Walker in 12-team leagues.

Walker has had zero upside in a Seattle backfield designed in a lab to suppress fantasy output. Zach Charbonnet gets the high-value inside-the-ten touches, the two Hawks backs split pass routes, and Walker gets much of the useless between-the-20s action. Against the Rams in Week 16, one of those between-the-20s rushes turned into a 55-yard score. It happens.

I suppose Walker could once again rip off a lengthy touchdown this week against a middling Carolina defense allowing the league’s seventh highest EPA per rush. Just know that Walker remains a big play-dependent option. Charbonnet this season has 22 rushing attempts inside the ten yard line while Walker has ten in a Seattle offense that ranks 24th in pass rate over expected in the green zone. Charbonnet leads the backfield with 11 inside-the-five rushes. Walker has six on the season. We know who scores the touchdowns here, and it’s (usually) not Walker.

The Panthers since Week 9 have allowed an explosive rush on 5.5 percent of the rushing attempts against them, the ninth-highest rate in the league over that stretch. Carolina has allowed 237 yards on explosive rushes since Week 9, the 12th highest mark. Their 0.17 missed tackles per rushing attempt ranks among the NFL’s top ten. So I suppose there is an avenue for Walker to break off another big run or two. Still, it’s hard to trust a running back who has more than 13 carries in just five games this season.

Chig Okonkwo (TEN)

Okonkwo quietly had the game of his life in Week 16 against the ghost of the Chiefs. He ran about half of the team’s routes and caught six of his eight targets for 44 yards and a touchdown.

The route rate leaves a lot to be desired. That’s nothing new, since the ultra-efficient Gunnar Helm has split routes with Okonkwo for much of the season’s second half. And while it’s notable that Okonkwo saw a team-leading seven first-read targets against Kansas City — no other Titans pass catcher had more than four — it’s hard to rely on a tight end with a 50 percent route rate.

That Week 16 was an outlier for Okonkwo — who has more than four receptions in just three games this season — goes without saying. Realize that he was targeted on 52 percent of his pass routes against the Chiefs when his season-long targets per route sits at a meager 19 percent and you get a sense of how much of an outlier it was. In fact, I’d say Helm — who has been targeted on 25 percent of his routes in 2025 — is a superior tight end option in Week 17 against the Saints, if you are in fact desperate for a streamer in deep formats.