2026 ZIPS projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks posted

As we stare out the window and wait for spring, the projection systems have begun to churn out their expectations for next seasons. One of the most established and well-respected entries in this category is ZIPS, created and maintained by Dan Szymborski over at Fangraphs. He has been releasing the system’s expectations for next season, one team at a time, and today he got to the Diamondbacks. Of course, no projection is ever going to be perfect. “Stuff”, shall we say, has a tendency to happen. But history has shown these are a reasonable, neutral prediction of what to expect. Of course: elements of all 30 fan-bases are convinced Dan hates their team.

Here’s the high-level expectations for each area of the D-backs, as they stand. Naturally, these will change between now and Opening Day, not least because Mike Hazen still has work to do. I’d like to think the bullpen will be better than the one currently projected, for example. Any trade of Ketel Marte will also lead to a seismic shift. But for now, here’s where we are at each position. All figures are fWAR.

Position players

• Catcher: Gabriel Moreno + James McCann, 3.9
• First base: Pavin Smith + Tyler Locklear, 1.2
• Second base: Ketel Marte, 4.5
• Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo, 4.8
• Third base: Jordan Lawlar + Blaze Alexander, 3.0
• Left field: Whoever, 1.5
• Center field: Alex Thomas + Blaze Alexander, 1.0
• Right field: Corbin Carroll, 4.7
• Designated hitter: Whoever, 0.6

The two spots tagged “Whoever” are expected to be something of a grab-bag, without an obvious everyday starter. At left, for example, the players seen as being involved next year include Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Alexander, Jake McCarthy, and even a soupcon of Ryan Waldschmidt. DH includes Adrian Del Castillo, Gurriel, Locklear, Marte and Smith. Adding all of the above positions together, you get a total of 25.2 WAR, which is slightly lower than last season’s actual figure of 26.9. In 2025, Perdomo and Carroll put up more production at their spots, but Locklear and Lawlar were both below replacement level – something which will hopefully change in 2026.

This does also show the areas where the offense might stand to use a little improvement. While the D-backs look set – health permitting, anyway – to be a veritable powerhouse around half the positions, DH and CF look to be weak spots, with LF and 1B also having room to upgrade. Perhaps surprisingly, given all the recent rumblings about Alex Bregman, third base does not appear to be a particular weakness, ZIPS buying into the potential of Lawlar there. Perhaps more so than some in the Arizona fanbase, who seem ready to throw him and his 33 OPS+ under the bus. In 2026, ZIPS projects a line of .232/.308/.379 – I’d take that as a start, from a 23-year-old rookie.

Starting pitching

• Merrill Kelly, 3.0
• Ryne Nelson, 2.3
• Brandon Pfaadt, 2.1
• Eduardo Rodriguez, 1.7
• Michael Soroka, 1.5
• Corbin Burnes, 0.8
• Kohl Drake, 0.8

Nice of Kelly to sign with the Diamondbacks (albeit, still unofficially at the time of writing) before the projections came out. The above would actually represent an improvement for Arizona across the board in the front five, though in Merrill’s case, if you add the time in Texas, it’s basically unchanged (3.1 total this year). Otherwise, Nelson, Pfaadt Rodriguez, and Soroka all tick up – albeit less than half a win each. The Burnes performance is always going to be health-dependent, but it’s interesting to see Drake seen as a significant contributor. The expectation for him in 2026 is a 4.19 ERA. Mitch Bratt is even better, at 3.88, but the depth chart doesn’t give him much playing time. I’m already looking ahead to 2027 – if it happens – when we could be overstocked with starting.

Again, adding those up, and presuming anyone else is at replacement level, we get 12.2 WAR, which is an improvement over the 9.0 the rotation delivered over the season past. A healthy Soroka, taking up those fifth starter outings would certainly be helpful. Zac Gallen might well be a case of addition by subtraction, having only been worth 1.1 WAR this year. That’s less than even Rodriguez, and a far cry from the Gallen we saw in 2022 (4.2 WAR) and 2023 (5.2). Still, as long as he gets a $50 million deal, and we get the improved draft pick resulting from that, he’s going to be someone else’s to worry about, going forward.

Bullpen

• Andrew Saalfrank
• Ryan Thompson
• Kevin Ginkel
• Drey Jameson
• Juan Morillo
• Brandyn Garcia
• Andrew Hoffmann
• Juan Burgos
• in cameo roles Philip Abner, Kyle Backhus, Justin Martinez and Gus Varland

This is likely the area of most flux between now and Opening Day. Right now, you could probably mix and match these, but in a lot of cases it would be like re-arranging deckchairs on the Titanic. There are some arms which have promise. But I seem to recall saying more or less the same thing on Opening Day last year, before the latest iteration of D-backs Bullpen Follies came to pass. Right now, the combined value of the above is 2.8 WAR. This is not good, and looking at this year’s rankings, would only be good for twenty-first in the majors. But it is still a damn sight better than the -0.3 WAR and 28th place posted by the Arizona bullpen in 2025.

Putting these three categories together, the D-backs are currently looking at an overall improvement of 4.6 WAR on their 2025 performance. That would potentially be enough to get them back over .500, and into fringe territory as a wild-card contender. However, I’d still like to see them do more, particularly to improve the bullpen. There are also a number of spots on the diamond where it would not be too hard or expensive to do better. However, as noted above, a Marte trade would seriously upset the applecart, and potentially render much of the above almost useless, depending on the return. So, for now, I will make no comment more prophetic than “We’ll see”.

The detailed breakdown, with projections for each player can be found here. What do you reckon? Over-estimating anyone? Under-estimating them? Have at it in the comments!