We have officially hit the one-third mark of this campaign, so what better time to take stock of an MVP race that is as stacked with top-end talent as it has ever been.
As a number of teams tip off their 28th game of the NBA season on Thursday night, we have officially hit the one-third mark of this campaign, so what better time — after the league crowned its Cup champion on Tuesday — to take stock of an MVP race that is as stacked with top-end talent as it has ever been.
The title picture is coming into clearer view, as the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (24-2) remain clear favorites. They are followed by a number of teams out West that are still trying to convince themselves they can win four games in a series against a team that has lost two all season, namely the Denver Nuggets (19-6), San Antonio Spurs (18-7), Los Angeles Lakers (18-7) and Houston Rockets (16-7).
In the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons (21-5) and New York Knicks (18-7) are the only teams to have claimed contender status, and the MVP discussion reflects the top of the standings on both sides.
Remember, too, that Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is nursing a calf injury, is scheduled to miss his 11th game of the season on Thursday, and one can miss only 17 games before he is ineligible for the award. (Victor Wembanyama has missed a chunk of games, as well, but at least he has returned to the court.)
Let's do this.
Honorable mention: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks; Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics; Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors; Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves; Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers; Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets.
6. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
As the best player on the Eastern Conference's first-place team, Cunningham warrants mention in this conversation. The Pistons are a surprising top seed, if only because we expected so much from the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, and Cunningham is their driving force. Quite literally. He is among the league's leaders in drives, prodding his way to his spots, where he can either pull up over a smaller defender, find Jalen Duren rolling to the basket or spread it out to a shooter. He beats you in many ways.
If there is a nit to be picked, it is that Cunningham was slightly more efficient from the field last season, when he placed seventh in the MVP discussion. He is shooting 32.7% on 6.4 3-point attempts per game, down from a career-best clip of 35.6% last season. Even when at his best, he is a league-average shooter. That is the final piece to a basketball puzzle that is almost as complete as anyone else's in the league.
5. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
We are running out of ways to laud Wembanyama, who as an athletic 7-foot-4 specimen is capable of things on a basketball court that others simply are not. He can score inside and outside, over everyone, but it is his defense that truly separates him. He all but blocks out the sun with his 8-foot wingspan.
When Wembanyama is on the court, the Spurs are allowing 104.3 points per 100 possessions, which would rank second to the West-leading Thunder's defense if averaged over a full season. When he is off the floor, San Antonio allows 117.1 points per 100 possessions, equivalent to a bottom-10 figure. In other words, put Wembanyama in the game, and he will transform you into an elite defense.
Offensively, it is not as if the reverse is true, but San Antonio's scoring has been better when Wembanyama is not in the game. He can slow the flow, as he isolates, still trying to figure out what he is capable of. And he is capable of quite a bit. These are growing pains that we trust Wembanyama will sort out over time. Whether or not he can this season will dictate how close the Spurs come to contending.
4. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
Offensively, you cannot ask for more from Dončić, who is leading the league per game in points (34.7), field-goal attempts (23.1), 3-point attempts (10.7) and free-throw attempts (12.3). He is doing a lot, and while he could be more efficient (his 32.4% clip from 3 is on pace to be his lowest since his sophomore season) there are few players capable of getting to their spots and finishing from them as well as Dončić.
Defensively is where he struggles. When Dončić is on the court with Austin Reaves and LeBron James — an offensive trio that no other team can compete with — the Lakers are allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions, equal to the league's 25th-worst defensive rating. It is a fatal flaw, one Los Angeles cannot overcome as currently constituted. And no amount of offense from Dončić can mask that deficiency.
3. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Brunson is the NBA Cup MVP for the in-season tournament's champion, and — to be quite honest here — who else can claim an accomplishment so substantial through the first third of the season? The goal for the Knicks in the early going was to establish themselves as legitimate championship contenders, and their effort in the NBA Cup (3-1 in group play and 3-0 in win-or-go-home competition) solidified that.
Brunson is the straw that stirs New York's drink on offense. The Knicks operate like the league's best outfit when he is in the game, scoring 126 points per 100 possessions, and like a bottom-five offense when he is on the bench (111.1 points per 100 possessions). With exceptional footwork, he gets wherever he wants, and usually, even at 6-2, he can manufacture a clean look for himself or someone else from there.
Defensively there is a limit to what Brunson can do. The Knicks own an elite defense when Brunson is off the court and a middling one when he is on it. It is a delicate balance. How well he walks that line — and how well he and Karl-Anthony Towns hold up in pick-and-roll defense — will dictate New York's title odds.
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Jokić is averaging another 30-point triple-double, which is ridiculous. He leads the league in rebounding and assists, and he ranks fifth in scoring. His last season, when he finished second in MVP voting, was arguably the most impressive statistically in league history, and he has been even better this year, shooting 67.6% on 2-point attempts and 43.3% on 3s. His production and efficiency are unprecedented.
They are translating into wins, too, as the Nuggets have more than any other team but the Thunder in the West. After taking Oklahoma City to seven games in the conference semifinals in May, Denver looks poised as the favorite's biggest threat again this season. And for the first time in Jokić's career, the Nuggets are outscoring opponents by a slim margin when the three-time MVP is off the court, a testament to improved depth.
The on/off numbers were always what made Jokić's MVP case so convincing. The Nuggets are still monsters whenever he is on the court, but they are also now serviceable when he is on the bench, and that could end up hurting his cause in this discussion, especially in an MVP race so hotly contested.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
I did not necessarily agree with Gilgeous-Alexander's selection as MVP last season, given, as I said, how Jokić submitted arguably the greatest statistical season in basketball history. But SGA won the award, fair and square, and then backed it up in the playoffs, capturing Finals MVP honors en route to a title.
So, someone has to take the honor from him, and nobody has done that. Gilgeous-Alexander's Thunder are 24-2, apace to break the NBA's regular-season wins record (73). They won eight straight to open the year, lost by two to the Portland Trail Blazers, and then won another 16 straight, before losing by two to Wembanyama's Spurs in the Cup semifinals. They have blown 15-point leads in each of their two losses.
The result is a +16.4 net rating that would mark the league's best net rating ever — by a wide margin. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a 32-5-6 and doing so in such a consistent manner that it feels like he is programmed to do so. They have done this largely without Jalen Williams and without a full rotation for a single game this season. They are so far and away the league's best team, and he is so far and away their best player, that it is hard to argue against Gilgeous-Alexander as the league's most valuable player.
Category: General Sports
