Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers @ Toronto Blue Jays

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit a bit of a cold spell, as they’ve now gone just 4-7 in their last 11 games dating back to their series with the Cubs last week. Still, they remain atop MLB’s standings at 83-52, a full 4.5 games better than any other team. The second-best team? The Toronto Blue Jays, who sit at 78-56 entering this weekend’s three-game set between the two squads. Toronto has had a similar trajectory to Milwaukee this season, falling behind the Yankees in the AL East early in the year before finding some momentum in the summer, as they now sit atop the division, 3.5 games up on the Red Sox and 4.5 games up on the Yankees.

The good news for the Crew is that they’re expected to get their young star, Jackson Chourio, back from an IL stint this weekend, as Chourio has missed the entire month with a hamstring injury he suffered in late July. Other injuries include Trevor Megill, Logan Henderson, Rob Zastryzny, Robert Gasser, Grant Anderson, Joey Ortiz, Rhys Hoskins, and DL Hall. All of them, with the lone exception of Henderson, are expected to return before the end of the regular season, with Gasser, Zastryzny, Ortiz, and Hoskins all the closest to returning. Henderson could be back in time for the postseason, but it seems less than likely at this point.

For Toronto, the team is without outfielder Anthony Santander and pitchers Yimi García, Nick Sandlin, Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, Ryan Burr, and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann. Burr is out for the rest of the year, while the other players are all looking to return in the next month or so. Manoah is the only player currently rehabbing, though he’s struggled in the majors since earning an All-Star appearance back in 2022.

Offensively for Milwaukee, Christian Yelich continues to set the pace with 26 homers, 90 RBIs, 78 runs, and 15 steals. He’s joined by sudden power-hitter Brice Turang (15 homers, 22 steals), catcher William Contreras (16 homers), and Sal Frelick (.299 batting average) at the top of the order. Andrew Vaughn has cooled off quite a bit after a hot start with the Crew, while Caleb Durbin, Isaac Collins, Blake Perkins, Brandon Lockridge, Anthony Seigler, and Danny Jansen have all contributed in recent weeks. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .258/.332/.407 (.739 OPS ranks 11th) with 144 homers (19th), 688 runs scored (third), and 140 steals (second).

George Springer is having a strong year, hitting 24 homers and driving in 67 RBIs across 112 games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .292/.389/.486 with 21 homers, 30 doubles, and 72 RBIs, while Bo Bichette and Daulton Varsho have also been solid. Addison Barger has broken out with 18 homers this year, while catcher Alejandro Kirk has also bounced back to hit .299 after a rough couple of seasons. Ty France, Andrés Giménez, Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes, and Myles Straw round out the offense. As a team, the Blue Jays are hitting .268/.338/.431 (.769 OPS ranks third) with 162 homers (11th), 664 runs scored (sixth), and 67 steals (25th).

Abner Uribe continues to star for Milwaukee’s bullpen, with a 1.71 ERA and 78 strikeouts across 63 1/3 innings this year. Jared Koenig, Nick Mears, and Shelby Miller round out the other high-leverage arms, while Aaron Ashby has also seen more high-leverage innings with the injury to Megill. Grant Anderson, Tobias Myers, and Easton McGee round out the bullpen for the Crew. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.63 team ERA (third), including a 3.50 starter ERA (second) and a 3.79 reliever ERA (10th). They’ve struck out 1,183 batters (sixth) over 1,202 2/3 innings.

Brendon Little leads the Blue Jays in appearances with 63, as he has a 2.79 ERA and 80 strikeouts over 58 innings. Jeff Hoffman has served as the closer, though he’s just 29-for-36 in save opportunities with a 4.69 ERA. Yariel Rodriguez, Braydon Fisher, and Tommy Nance also sport solid numbers, with deadline acquisition Seranthony Dominguez taking on plenty of high-leverage innings of his own. Louis Varland and Justin Bruihl round out the bullpen for Toronto. As a staff, the Blue Jays have a 4.23 team ERA (20th), including a 4.37 starter ERA (20th) and a 4.03 reliever ERA (16th). They’ve struck out 1,188 batters (fourth) over 1,189 2/3 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, August 29 @ 6:07 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (2.68 ERA, 3.69 FIP) vs. Shane Bieber (1.50 ERA, 2.79 FIP)

Peralta has now gone three consecutive starts without allowing a run, as he’s lowered his season ERA to 2.68. He also leads the league with 15 wins this year, striking out 160 over 147 2/3 innings as he looks to eclipse the 200-strikeout mark for the third straight season. He went five scoreless frames against the Giants in his last outing, striking out six and allowing four walks and a pair of hits in a game the Brewers ultimately lost 7-1. Peralta has made just one career start against the Jays, as he went six innings with three runs allowed and three strikeouts against them in Toronto in June 2023.

Bieber, who spent the first seven years of his career with the Cleveland Guardians before being traded at this year’s deadline, has made just one start for the Jays since joining the team, as he missed the last season-plus after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In that lone start, he picked up the win over the Marlins, allowing one run on two hits and a hit batter while striking out nine across six frames. The former AL Cy Young winner, now 30, has made two career starts against Milwaukee, with a 1-1 record, 4.50 ERA, and 18 strikeouts over 10 innings.

Saturday, August 30 @ 2:07 p.m.: Quinn Priester (3.44 ERA, 4.37 FIP) vs. Kevin Gausman (3.87 ERA, 3.77 FIP)

Originally slated to pitch on Wednesday against the D-backs, Priester’s start was pushed back to Saturday as he’s dealing with a minor wrist injury. In 24 appearances (19 starts) for Milwaukee this season, he’s 11-2 with a 3.44 ERA, 4.37 FIP, and 104 strikeouts over 128 1/3 innings. He’s continued to have an insane stretch, as the Brewers haven’t lost any game he’s appeared in since May. In his last outing against the Cubs, he went just 4 1/3 innings with one run allowed on three hits and five walks while striking out four in a 4-1 win. He’s made one career start against the Jays, allowing four runs over 4 2/3 innings (7.71 ERA) with three strikeouts in June 2024.

Gausman, now in his 13th MLB season and fourth with the Blue Jays, continues to chug along, as he’s turned in an above-average ERA (i.e., ERA+ of 100 or higher) in each season since 2020. Through 26 starts this year, he has a 3.87 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 149 strikeouts over 153 2/3 innings. The two-time All-Star went six innings in a losing effort last time out, allowing four runs and striking out seven against the Marlins. Gausman has made six career appearances (four starts) against Milwaukee, with a 2-0 record, 1.57 ERA, and 33 strikeouts over 28 2/3 innings.

Sunday, August 31 @ 12:37 p.m.: Brandon Woodruff (3.10 ERA, 3.53 FIP) vs. Max Scherzer (3.82 ERA, 4.65 FIP)

Woodruff has made nine starts since returning from the IL in early July, and he’s been a reliable piece of the rotation for Pat Murphy and Co. Across 49 1/3 innings, he’s struck out 63 batters with a 3.10 ERA and 3.53 FIP. The two-time All-Star went 5 2/3 innings against the D-backs in his last start on Monday, allowing five runs on five hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in a 7-5 win. Despite appearing in 139 career games across eight seasons, this marks Woodruff’s first appearance against Toronto.

After drawing Bieber and Gausman in the first two games of this series, things won’t get any easier for the Brewers in the series finale with 18-year vet Max Scherzer getting the ball. Scherzer has made 12 starts this season, as he’s slowed down quite a bit at age 40. Still, he sports a 3.82 ERA, 4.65 FIP, and 61 strikeouts over 66 innings. He went six innings with four runs allowed and five strikeouts against the Twins in his last start, picking up the win as the Jays won 10-4. In 14 career appearances (13 starts) against Milwaukee, Scherzer is 3-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 101 strikeouts across 78 innings.

How to Watch

Friday, August 29: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Saturday, August 30: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Sunday, August 31: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, MLB Network (out-of-market viewers), and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Prediction

This is a marquee matchup, with the top two teams in the league going head-to-head north of the border. Given Milwaukee’s recent dry spell and three strong starters lined up for the Blue Jays, I’ll take Toronto to win two of three at home.