Matt Jacob delivers three researched betting nuggets for every NFC team.
History suggests the Green Bay Packers are a mortal lock to win and cover their first game at Lambeau field — despite their recent struggles against the opponent (a division rival).
At the same time, think twice before wagering on the New York Giants in Week 1 (or, for that matter, in either of their games against the Dallas Cowboys).
And when it comes to season win totals, there’s a strong “buy” sign on one franchise with the lowest of expectations … and a “sell” sign on another franchise that happens to be a Super Bowl contender.
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These are just a handful of the 48 NFL betting trend gems we dug up for all 16 NFC teams (three for each squad).
Week 1 point-spread history, division-rivalry tendencies, recent ATS moneymakers (and money-burners), win-total and other futures trends — we got you covered … in an effort to help you cover.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
• It’s been exactly three decades since Dallas won its last Super Bowl (or even appeared in an NFC championship game). The Cowboys’ odds of winning Super Bowl LX? As high as 50-1 — their longest preseason price since 2014, when they were 75-1.
• After three straight 12-win campaigns, Dallas slipped to 7-10 last season. The franchise hasn’t finished with fewer than eight wins in back-to-back seasons since 2001-02 (it went 5-11 both years). The Cowboys’ 2025 consensus win total: 7.5.
• Dallas is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six trips to division rival Philadelphia. The lone victory was the 2021 season finale, when the Eagles rested their starters. The NFL season kicks off Sept. 4, when the Cowboys visit Philly as a consensus 7-point underdog.
New York Giants
• New York has stayed under its win total 10 times in the last 12 seasons. The Giants enter 2025 projected for 5.5 victories — a number they’ve exceeded only three times in the last eight years.
• The Giants have lost 15 of 16 games to NFC East rival Dallas since the start of the 2017 season (4-12 ATS). Additionally, they’ve dropped 18 of 22 to Philadelphia since 2014 (11-11 ATS).
• Going back to 2011, New York is 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in season openers. The Giants kick off the 2025 campaign as consensus 6.5-point underdogs at NFC East foe Washington.
Philadelphia Eagles
• Including their run to Super Bowl LIX victory, the 2024 Eagles went 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS. After losing the home opener to Atlanta in Week 2, they won 10 consecutive home games (6-4 ATS).
• Over the past three seasons, Philadelphia is 29-4 prior to December (21-11-1 ATS). The breakdown: 13-2 at home (9-5-1 ATS); 16-2 in road/neutral site contests (12-6 ATS).
• The Eagles have gotten off to fast starts in the past 17 years, going 14-3 in Week 1 dating to 2008 (11-6 ATS). This includes an ongoing four-game season-opening winning streak (3-1 ATS).
Washington Commanders
• Washington’s preseason odds to win Super Bowl LX are as short as 18-1. It’s the franchise’s lowest title price since it was 16-1 entering the 2006 season.
• The Commanders nearly doubled their 2024 win-total expectation of 6.5, finishing 12-5. Washington’s win total this year: 9.5. The last time the franchise won more than eight games in consecutive seasons? You have to go back to 1989-91, when it posted double-digit wins each year.
• Since Week 10 of the 2023 season, the over is 19-9-1 in Commanders games (including playoffs). The over also has cashed in 11 of the last 15 games played at home.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
• In 2018, Chicago went 12-4 and won the NFC North. It’s the only time in the last dozen years the Bears finished with a winning record, recorded more than eight victories and went over their win total. Their projected victory total in 2025: 8.5.
• Chicago closed out last season with a 24-22 upset of Green Bay as a 10-point road underdog. That ended an 11-game losing skid versus the Packers (1-10 ATS) and an eight-game slide at Lambeau Field (1-7 ATS). Even with the win, Chicago is 6-28 SU and 9-25 ATS against Green Bay since 2008.
• Dating to the start of the 2020 campaign, the Bears are 7-23 versus NFC North rivals (10-19-1 ATS). That includes a 2-13 mark at home (3-11-1 ATS).
Detroit Lions
• Detroit has finished 12-5 ATS each of the last three seasons. Moreover, going back to Week 10 of the 2021 campaign, the Lions have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 60 regular-season contests — an NFL-best 71.7% success rate.
• From 2019-21, the Lions were favored in just seven games, going 3-3-1 SU and 2-5 ATS. Since then, Detroit is 29-7 SU and 25-11 ATS when laying points.
• The Lions are projected for 10.5 victories this season. They have exceeded their win total each of the last three years after going 15-6 to the under from 2001-21. However, since 1989, Detroit has never topped its win total in four consecutive seasons. Not only that, but the 95-year-old franchise has never posted double-digit victories in three straight seasons.
Green Bay Packers
• Green Bay has cleared its win-total projection five times in the last six years (after falling short in six of the previous seven). The 2025 Packers are slated for 9.5 victories.
• Green Bay has followed up a five-game winning streak against Detroit by losing six of the last seven meetings (2-5 ATS). The Packers and Lions square off in Week 1 at Lambeau Field, where Green Bay is a slim 1.5-point home favorite.
• The Packers are 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS in home openers since 2007, including an ongoing 11-game winning streak. Over this span, they’re 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS when the first home game is against an NFC North rival (3-0 SU and ATS versus Detroit).
Minnesota Vikings
• Minnesota played in four Super Bowls from 1970-77, losing each time, and has not made it to the big game since. The Vikings have consensus odds of 11-1 to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX and 22-1 to win it all.
• The 2024 Vikings finished 11-5-1 ATS, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. They have turned a point-spread profit 10 times in the last 13 seasons, going 118-88-3 ATS (57.3%).
• Week 1 of the 2025 season concludes when Minnesota visits Chicago on Monday Night Football. The Vikings, who are 1.5-point road favorites, have won and covered five straight games at Soldier Field — part of an 8-2 SU/6-3-1 ATS run against the Bears since 2020.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
• Atlanta has posted seven consecutive losing seasons, clearing its win total just once. The 2025 Falcons are projected for 7.5 or 8.5 victories, depending on the sportsbook.
• Not surprisingly based on their win total, the Falcons are not expected to end their seven-year playoff drought, with postseason odds ranging from +137 to +155. Last time Atlanta missed the playoffs eight straight times: 1983-90.
• The Falcons have dropped six of their last seven season openers (2-5 ATS). They’re consensus 1.5-point home underdogs against Tampa Bay in Week 1.
Carolina Panthers
• In 2015, Carolina had an NFL-best 15-1 record and reached Super Bowl 50. In nine seasons since, the Panthers have had just one winning season, one playoff appearance and have only twice topped their win total. This year, Carolina is projected for 6.5 victories, and its playoff odds range from +230 to +280.
• The Panthers have been favored in just 15 of 84 games since the start of the 2020 campaign. Their record in that role: 3-12 SU and ATS.
• The over cashed in 13 of Carolina’s 17 games last season, tying Baltimore for the NFL’s best over record. Each of the Panthers’ final seven home games in 2024 hurdled the total.
New Orleans Saints
• New Orleans’ 5-12 record last year was the franchise’s worst since the 2005 squad went 3-13. Those are the only two instances this century in which the Saints failed to win at least seven games. Their consensus 2025 win total: 5.5.
• The last time New Orleans won fewer than six games in back-to-back full seasons: 1980 (1-15) and 1981 (4-12). Also, the Saints haven’t endured a five-year playoff drought since 2001-05. This year, they’re a sizable underdog (+650 to +850) underdog to make the postseason. Only Cleveland has longer odds.
• The Saints at least have gotten off to fast starts in recent years, winning six consecutive season openers (3-3 ATS). That streak aside, New Orleans is a consensus 5.5-point home underdog against Arizona in Week 1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Tampa Bay is a strong favorite to win its fifth consecutive NFC South crown, with odds as short as -110. Interestingly, the Bucs captured a total of six division titles in their first 45 years of existence (never once going back-to-back).
• The Bucs have cleared their win total five times in the last six years. They’re projected for 9.5 victories in 2025.
• Tampa has won five straight meetings against division rival Carolina, and 11 of the last 13 (9-3 ATS). It is also 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the last six contests with New Orleans.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
• Arizona has just one playoff appearance in the last nine years. Yet its postseason odds entering the 2025 campaign are as low as +110.
• With Kyler Murray under center, the Cardinals are 13-19 ATS as a favorite but 32-17-2 ATS (65.3%) as an underdog.
• Arizona has covered the Week 1 point spread five times in the last six years. However, it went 2-3-1 SU in those contests, losing the last three in a row — which is noteworthy, considering the Cardinals open as 5.5-point favorites at New Orleans.
Los Angeles Rams
• In eight years since Sean McVay took over as head coach, Los Angeles has posted double-digit wins and hurdled its preseason win total six times. Prior to that, the franchise had posted 13 consecutive non-winning seasons and fallen short of its win total 10 times. This year, L.A. is pegged for 9.5 victories.
• Going back to 2019, Los Angeles is 30-11-1 ATS in December and January (playoffs included).
• Since returning to L.A. from St. Louis in 2016, the Rams are 27-11 against NFC West rivals Arizona and Seattle in the regular season and playoffs (26-11-1 ATS). However, they’re 7-12 SU and ATS versus San Francisco — despite winning the last three in a row and covering the last four.
San Francisco 49ers
• It’s been boom or bust for the 49ers in eight years under head coach Kyle Shanahan. They advanced at least as far as the NFC title game (including two Super Bowl appearances) in half of those seasons but finished under .500 in the other half. This year, San Francisco is the consensus third choice to win the NFC (+750 to +950) and a +165 underdog to miss the postseason.
• The 49ers went 5-0 in Super Bowls from 1981-94, but are 0-3 since. They enter 2025 as high as 20-1 to win Super Bowl LX— their longest preseason title odds since being 40-1 in 2019.
• From Week 12 to the end of the regular season, the over is 15-6 in 49ers games the past three years. However, the under is 6-2-1 in San Francisco’s last nine postseason contests (since 2021).
Seattle Seahawks
• Seattle, which went 10-7 in 2024, is 5-1-1 to the over on its win total since 2018. The Seahawks have registered at least nine victories in 12 of the last 13 seasons. This year’s projection: 7.5 or 8.5 victories, depending on the sportsbook.
• Sam Darnold signed with Seattle during the offseason after leading Minnesota to a 14-3 record in 2024 (11-5-1 ATS). Prior to 2024, Darnold was 21-35 SU and 21-34-1 ATS as an NFL starting quarterback.
• Seattle has won seven straight games against NFC West foe Arizona (6-1 ATS). Conversely, it has lost five of six to San Francisco (2-4 ATS). Prior to the 2022 season, the Seahawks had been on a 16-3 tear against the 49ers (13-5-1 ATS).
Category: General Sports
