The markets suggest that there are as many as eight to ten teams that can realistically win it at all. I agree that the field is wide. But I can narrow that down to six. With 95% confidence. Even with a counterintuitive flyer or two thrown in for good measure.
The markets suggest that there are as many as eight to ten teams that can realistically win it at all. I agree that the field is wide. But I can reasonably narrow that down to six. Even with a counterintuitive flyer or two thrown in for good measure.
I’ve already covered:Penn StateandClemson
Now, Texas.
If you’re already reading Inside Texas [Sign up for Inside Texas TODAY and get the BEST Longhorns coverage!] and you have read or are getting the 13th annual Burnt Orange Bible, you already know why, and we’re done.
Damn. I haven’t reached my minimum word limit. Let’s hit the high points…
Improved QB Play
Arch Manning is a much more dynamic athlete than any of his predecessors during Sark’s regime, but he’s also a better pure passer. Some lessons will only be learned through mistakes, and he’ll have his share, but Texas will go into every game it plays with the best starting QB under center. The best counterpoint to that argument – Florida’s DJ Lagway playing in Gainesville – may be made of tissue paper.
In Year 5 of Sark’s tenure, we still haven’t seen significant parts of his offense. Here it comes.
Top 5 Defense
Texas fans (and coaches) are debating the best possible dispositions at nickel, whether our edge room should play five or six in games, the most optimal stud linebacker next to Anthony Hill, or how exactly we’re going to play all of our good players.
Meanwhile, most teams in college football are searching to find any player who can rush the QB and are praying that their mediocre starting safety doesn’t miss a game since his replacement was just portaled in from Nicholls State in the Spring.
Texas will play very good defense.
Blending System Continuity & New Ideas
Texas has the right balance between continuity and new ideas.
Sark is entering his 5th year as head coach and the primary offensive play caller along with collaborator AJ Milwee and offensive line coach Kyle Flood. Pete Kwiatkowski is entering his 5th year as defensive coordinator. Jeff Banks, the same on special teams. The core has been constant.
At the same time, Texas has shown a facility for hiring new blood, intaking new ideas with a variety of analysts, specialized hires, and consultants. Second year coach Johnny Nansen provided new ideas for the defense last year in the mold of Gary Patterson before him, Michael Bimonte was recently elevated to Co-Passing Game Coordinator, and Texas brought back old veteran Duane Akina for general DB development. Meanwhile, they’ve hired well positionally.
The latest round of specialist hires includes dedicated coaches for the Texas edge rushers (LaAllan Clark) and the nickel (Keynodo Hudson).
Overall Completeness
Veteran-laden Penn State has the fewest sharp edges to round off in college football, but Texas is right up there. The Longhorns may not have the best single unit of any in college football (though that’s debatable), but Pro Football Focus currently ranks six different Longhorn position units among the Top 10 in the country.
This offseason, Texas used the portal well to address needs at tight end, defensive tackle, wide receiver, special teams. They have exceeded reasonable replacement level at several of those spots.
**
Are there any compelling arguments against Texas?
Texas hasn’t done an optimal job preparing itself for the 2025/2026 Arch window on the offensive line. I argued right after the playoff loss to Ohio State that the Horns should portal in an experienced starting OT (and possibly an IOL, too) and unfortunately I’m already right.
The running back room is somewhat overrated nationally, and the valuable Tre Wisner represents its floor, but I see a lot of pennies being thrown into the wishing well. At least one of Clark, Baxter or Gibson must hit.
Texas has been slow to adjust at times in critical moments. Once you enter a playoff tournament format, speed of adjustment and novelty are critical. Last year, Ohio State had the most talented team and proved the most willing to change its approach. Their reward was a national title.
Schedule. Clemson and Penn State have obvious paths to the playoff and a lot of second chance opportunities. Failing to make the tournament would require epic chokes. Texas failing would just require a couple of bad breaks. The Longhorns are preseason road dogs in two spots and a healthy Florida in Gainesville could be a handful. Oklahoma and A&M are far from slam dunks. Texas must navigate a level of risk that some other contenders simply won’t.
Big picture, the Longhorns are a very formidable team. Anyone that draws them in the playoff won’t be happy with their side of the bracket.
Category: General Sports
