Todd McShay breaks down why Arch Manning is expected to bypass 2026 NFL Draft

Archie Manning — the patriarch of the Manning quarterback dynasty — surprised some when he recenty poured cold water on the prospect that his grandson, Texas quarterback Arch Manning, would enter the 2026 NFL Draft and instead return to Austin for a second season as the Longhorns’ starter.

“Arch isn’t going to do that,” Archie Manning told Texas Monthly about Arch Manning’s prospects of declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft. “He’ll be at Texas (next season too).”

Of course, outside of some way-too-early NFL mock drafts released in the weeks after April’s 2025 NFL Draft, Arch Manning bypassing next year’s draft and returning to Texas for the 2026 season has been the prevailing expectation among most NFL personnel for awhile now. Longtime NFL Draft expert Todd McShay echoed those sentiments during Monday’s episode of The McShay Show on YouTube.

“It’s just how the Manning family operates. … If you know the Mannings, you know the process. And the process is: ‘We’re going to do the right thing. We made a commitment to Texas, and we’re going to see that through.’ … And it goes back and forth, that’s how they do business. So, at the end of the day, the process is the process. Eli shocked people when he came back for his final year. Peyton surprised (many) when he came back,” McShay said. “… So it’s not about where do I get drafted, what number pick am I? It’s about are we ready when we get into the league? And we’ve seen that in the last couple of years with Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, guys that were coming in with more starts and having more early success (because they’re) more prepared than guys like even Caleb Williams and certainly Anthony Richardson and like Mitch Trubinsky and Mark Sanchez – the 13-start club.

“But then there’s this other side, talking to an actual (NFL) general manager that actually knows some stuff around it, and his thing was, they’re going through the process head down, working, grinding, doing all the things. There’s an expectation, yes, he’ll be back.”

Todd McShay reveals one factor that could lead Arch Manning to enter 2026 NFL Draft

At this point, McShay opted to play devil’s advocate and suggested there’s one factor that could ultimately impact the Mannings’ decision-making regarding whether Arch ultimately returns for a fourth season in Austin or opts to enter the 2026 NFL Draft after just one season as the Longhorns’ QB1.

“However, one thing to factor in is, and I don’t know that everyone quite understands is, what his day-to-day life of being Arch is in Austin, Texas. And it’s no fault of anyone’s – it’s no fault of Steve Sarkisian, of the program, of the SID, of the president of the school. It’s no one’s fault. It’s inevitable anywhere in the country that he went to school. And Texas is as equipped as if not more than any other program in the  country to shield him from that, they have the resources, they have the money, they have the people, all those sorts of things,” McShay continued. “But at the end of the day, … he’s so generous with his time, he’s so kind … it’s going to wear on anyone. The bubble’s a lot smaller and more intense where you go to get a bottle of water from a 7-11 and there’s 15 selfies and videos and you just feel like you can’t breathe sometimes.

“(But) you get to a NFL city, it’s different. So there may have to be a weighing of quality of life versus am I truly prepared to the level I wanted to be prepared, or should I just go to the NFL for a better quality of life and get into a situation – which the Mannings can also help dictate – where maybe I have a little more time than expected. Just something to think about.”

Arch Manning enters the 2025 college football season with the type of preseason hype that hasn’t been seend since Tim Tebow arrived at Florida. That includes him leading the consensus No. 1 Texas as the odds-on preseason Heisman Trophy favorite over more established quarterbacks like LSU‘s Garrett Nussmeier or Clemson‘s Cade Klubnik.