Premier League 2025/26 predictions: Champions, top four, relegation, best signing, top scorer and more

The Premier League is back and just 33 days after Chelsea appeared to bring the curtain down on the 2024/25 season with their thumping win in the Club World Cup final, champions Liverpool kick off their title defence against Bournemouth at Anfield.

The transfer window continues to rumble on with plenty of deals yet to materialise, which could shift the trajectory of many teams, notably Arne Slot’s side and Newcastle, with Alexander Isak’s future still in doubt.

Arsenal appear closer than ever after near misses in recent years, with Viktor Gyokeres brought in to spearhead Mikel Arteta’s title charge, while Pep Guardiola has rebuilt Man City quickly and Chelsea will hope to ride the momentum of their victory over PSG last month.

Manchester United’s lavish outlay has enabled them to revamp swiftly, Tottenham begin a new era under Thomas Frank, while newcomers Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland hope to avoid a quick return to the ever chaotic Championship.

Here, the Independent’s sports staff preview the new campaign and make their picks for the 2025/26 Premier League season:

Champions

Miguel Delaney, chief football writer: Arsenal. Very hard to pick between Arsenal and Liverpool - and Alexander Isak may change things again - but there's strangely an element of uncertainty about the champions. At the same time, Arsenal have solved a lot of issues they had last season.

Richard Jolly, senior football correspondent: Liverpool. Much the best team last season and though Arsenal should improve and Manchester City definitely could, there has been plenty of ambition in Liverpool's recruitment, whether or not they get Alexander Isak. They will miss Trent Alexander-Arnold's creativity but Florian Wirtz adds another dimension, Hugo Ekitike looks potentially superb and they look stronger in most departments - though still needing a fourth centre-back and another attacker of some description.

Lawrence Ostlere: Arsenal. They had the best defensive record in the league last season, and the additions of Viktor Gyokores and Martin Zubimendi will raise their level in the areas where they most needed strengthening. Arsenal will need some luck avoiding injuries to Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice and the centre-backs, but if Gyokores hits the ground running then Mikel Arteta should have all the tools he needs to finally deliver the title.

Will Castle: Liverpool. The obvious pick. Arne Slot surprised everyone when he won the league in his first season, at a canter at that. They’ve now followed that up by adopting a “galacticos” policy and pumped nearly £300m – which could soon rise to £400m - into an already superior side. The Reds have many a time assumed the underdog role in their history – they’re now such strong favourites that anything less than champions will likely be laughed at.

Alex Pattle: Having been comfortably the best team last year, and having strengthened in a way that Arsenal and Man City have not, Liverpool are clear favourites. I think you'd be brave to bet against them.

Top four

MD: Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea. This is on the basis the table stays as it is and the City case doesn't lead to a points deduction - the club insist on their innocence. If the Premier League gets five Champions League places again, as is expected, Manchester United will also be up there.

RJ: Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea. The same four as last season, admittedly, and the prediction of Chelsea is made with less confidence than the other three (they have done some fine business in the summer but Robert Sanchez is scarcely the most convincing goalkeeper and the loss of Levi Colwill means they may struggle at centre-back) but it's hard to see who could overtake any of them. Newcastle would have been obvious contenders until their awful summer.

LO: Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City. They are the clear ‘big four’ and could finish in any order.

WC: Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea. Three teams with title ambitions, but I fear will struggle to keep up with the favourites as the season progresses. A three-way race for second is thus predicted, a position that has both haunted Mikel Arteta and signified Arsenal’s growth since he took over. Manchester City’s summer business has been encouraging but nevertheless indicates a time of transition, while Chelsea look ready to level up off the back of their Club World Cup triumph.

AP: Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea. I feel Man City's drop-off might be shorter-lived than some fans of other clubs are hoping. If Rodri stays fit – if he stays, full stop – City should be better than last season off the bat, and I fear for Arsenal supporters that the window to win the title might have closed under Mikel Arteta. In fact, I think they may drop behind City this year, with Chelsea rounding out the top four after showing promising signs pre-season.

Relegated

MD: Leeds United, Sunderland, Burnley. There are doubts about Brentford but they're a smart club who will respond to events as the season evolves. As such, it's hard not to go with the recent trend of the three promoted sides going straight back down.

RJ: Burnley, Brentford, Sunderland - It isn't healthy if the three promoted clubs all go down for a third consecutive year. Nothing against Brentford, but perhaps the losses of Thomas Frank, Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Norgaard and Mark Flekken will come at a cost, though I'd like to see both Keith Andrews and Jordan Henderson do well. Of the three promoted clubs, Leeds may have the best chance of staying up, and then of establishing themselves in the division.

LO: Burnley, Sunderland, Wolves. Burnley and Sunderland will naturally suffer from a lack of resources, but Leeds might have enough to sneak above one existing Premier League club. If they do it may well be Wolves, who were near the foot of the expected goals charts last season and have sold two key players this summer in Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri.

WC: Brentford, Leeds, Burnley. Is the idea that all three promoted sides won’t go down blue-sky thinking? Or just plain delusion? I haven’t been inspired by the transfer business of Leeds nor Burnley, and recent history has shown that largely unimproved Championship squads aren’t good enough for the top flight. Brentford, meanwhile, have been tipped for the drop after losing manager Thomas Frank, top scorer Bryan Mbeumo and captain Christian Norgaard. But most controversially, I’ve got Sunderland to stay up – something justified by savvy buys and a personal desire to see a proper Barclays team get back on their perch.

AP: Burnley, West Ham, Sunderland: Maybe I'm hedging my bets in predicting that two of the three promoted teams will go down, while I think Everton and West Ham are clubs that got off lightly last season and need to be wary. Ironically for West Ham, given David Moyes is a former two-time coach there, it's the Scot that I'd back to steer a club away from the drop. With that in mind, the Hammers could be the established side that fall this season.

Player of the season

MD: Bukayo Saka. Last season's injury and a quiet summer means he goes into the campaign with the most rest he's had in some time, and at a prime age.

RJ: If, as I have forecast, Liverpool do win the title, then logically it will be one of Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk or Wirtz. But to go for someone different, and a genuinely high-class footballer, it would be pleasing to see Alexis Mac Allister with the individual honours.

LO: I fancy Cole Palmer to have another big season for Chelsea but I’ll pick DeclanRice, on the basis that if Arsenal win the league, he will probably be their best player.

WC: Alexander Isak. This one’s circumstantial. Isak is wanting out of Newcastle, with Liverpool keen to add arguably the best striker in the world to their already star-studded team. If the Magpies loosen the shackles and let him leave (assuming Liverpool do come back with an improved bid), expect the Swede to only amplify his goalscoring exploits at Anfield.

AP: Florian Wirtz: In a post-Kevin De Bruyne landscape, Wirtz could prove himself as the most impressive creator in the top tier. I almost went for Mohamed Salah, but I think he'll share the goals more this season, with some going to Wirtz – who will also provide a fair few assists, one would assume.

Golden boot

MD: Erling Haaland. There are more variables here than usual, from the potential for chaos in City's season to where Isak plays and how Salah is used. On the basis of the information we have now, though, there's pretty much one guarantee: Haaland will keep scoring.

RJ: Erling Haaland. If he stays fit, he will arguably win it every year and, realistically, Salah might not get 28 goals again. With the arrivals of expensive strikers like Viktor Gyokeres and Benjamin Sesko, with players like Matheus Cunha, Liam Delap and Joao Pedro joining bigger clubs, there could be more forwards getting 20 or more top-flight goals, though.

LO: ErlingHaaland, the best striker in the league. Mohamed Salah will miss a handful of games playing in the Africa Cup of Nations.

WC: Alexander Isak. See above. Again, depends on the move to Anfield, because staying at Newcastle could see him miss at least a handful of games as Eddie Howe tries to reintegrate the Swede. But if he makes the switch, expect him to lessen the goal burden of Mo Salah, perhaps improving his chances for top spot.

AP: Erling Haaland: It would be easy to pick against him – and to back Salah again specifically – but Haaland deserves the benefit of the doubt. He'll need to stay fit, obviously, but history shows that when he does, he's untouchable in this realm.

Signing of the season

MD: Joao Pedro. Just one of those players who looks set to go to another level with a move.

RJ: Florian Wirtz. The sort of signing that is a real statement, from Arne Slot, Richard Hughes and Liverpool's owners. At £100m, the former Bundesliga Player of the Year has not come cheap but, as the assumption had long been that he was bound for Bayern Munich, Wirtz feels quite a coup.

LO: MaximDeCuyper, Brighton’s new left-back, who looks like being the perfect foil for Kaoru Mitoma.

WC: Joao Pedro. No more if, buts or maybes for this one. Watching the immediate impact of Joao Pedro at the Club World Cup gave the impression that Chelsea have landed an absolute belter in Joao Pedro. A versatile player and a proven game-changer, the Brazilian could be crucial in establishing Enzo Maresca’s side as a genuine title challenger.

AP: Joao Pedro: I could have gone for Wirtz, given he is both my pick for player of the season and is a new signing, but for the sake of variety, I'll say Joao Pedro. I'm not sure he'll be able to massively improve Chelsea's fortunes, but I think he'll make them a more comfortable top-four side this campaign. He's already got great momentum from pre-season.

What are you looking forward to most?

MD: Narrative (no, really). There are individual stories, like Brighton's latest regeneration, how Ruben Amorim works without European football and a chance of revival... but, above all, there's the Premier League's capacity to captivate. The competition now faces growing issues, from the regulator to governance problems, but there's no denying its ability to just offer storylines. That isn't PR, either. There is always some remarkable storyline, that has ensured it has captured the world's attention, more than any other domestic league.

RJ: I'd like a proper title race and a relegation battle because, in a lot of other respects, much of last season was very enjoyable, whether the unpredictability and storylines of many of the teams who finished between second and 17th, seeing different clubs win the domestic cups and the new format of the Champions League, coupled with the drama and quality of the knockout stages, so a sequel to each would be appreciated. Not asked, but I am least looking forward to more toxic, tedious whingeing about referees and VAR. Sadly, it's inevitable.

LO: I don’t tend to get excited by the transfer window, but I am really looking forward to seeing how the league’s new high-profile recruits fare, such as Florian Wirtz and Martin Zubimendi, and particularly Viktor Gyokores and Benjamin Sesko after such big build-ups all summer.

WC: The North East has my attention. Sunderland’s long-awaited return to the Premier League poses as much excitement as it does doubt, with many predicting an immediate return to the Championship for the Black Cats. But I’m a huge fan of their summer business, namely the arrivals Simon Adingra, Marc Guiu, Habib Diarra and ex-Arsenal skipper Granit Xhaka. Newcastle, meanwhile, have had a disastrous window. Whether they’ve got Isak or not, it will be interesting to see how they react on the pitch. And of course, we get to enjoy the scenes that come with a Tyne-Wear derby again. Beautiful carnage.

AP: The unifying force of football in wake of Diogo Jota passing away. Yes, I know a sad minority of Crystal Palace fans interrupted the moment's silence before the Community Shield, but Liverpool supporters have decided to applaud their late No 20 in the 20th minute of every home game, which I suspect will extend to every game they play this season. And I suspect rival fans will join in with paying tribute to Jota.