Congrats, Texas on earning the school’s first No. 1 preseason Associated Press poll ranking. Hook ‘em and hang the banner now! That’s because history says there won’t be a Longhorns championship in January. Of the past 21 preseason No. 1 AP ranked teams, 19 failed to win the national title. The last to do so […]
Congrats, Texas on earning the school’s first No. 1 preseason Associated Press poll ranking. Hook ‘em and hang the banner now! That’s because history says there won’t be a Longhorns championship in January.
Of the past 21 preseason No. 1 AP ranked teams, 19 failed to win the national title. The last to do so was Alabama in 2017.
With the release of the preseason AP Top 25 poll on Monday, here are some historical notes to consider:
+++ While the AP’s preseason No. 1 ranking has identified who won’t win the national title, the preseason poll also actually has identified who will win the national title.
In 19 of the past 21 years, the national champion was ranked among the AP preseason’s top seven teams. The exceptions: Florida State started at No. 11 in 2013 and Auburn started at No. 22 in 2010.
So this year’s national champion should be either Texas (if it avoids the No. 1 jinx), Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame or Oregon.
+++ If your favorite team is not ranked in the preseason poll, that’s not necessarily a bad sign. In last year’s preseason poll, 13 of the Top 25 teams finished the season unranked. In the College Football Playoff era, since 2014, an average of 11 teams a year ranked in the preseason poll finished unranked.
In 29 of the last 31 years – except 2011 and 2020 – at least one team that started the season unranked finished in the Top 10 in the final AP Poll. Last year, there were three programs that went from unranked to Top 10: No. 7 Arizona State, No. 8 Boise State and No. 10 Indiana.
+++ While there are annually some surprise teams that begin the season unranked, there are also several preseason Top 10 disappointments. Every year for the past 22 seasons – except 2019 – there has been at least one preseason Top 10 team that finished the year unranked.
Last year, it was preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State that finished unranked. So take a good look at the top 10, there likely will be at least one team won’t be ranked at the end of the year.
There are 10 current head coaches, whose teams started the year ranked in the AP’s preseason Top 10 and finished the season unranked. The list:
Preseason ranking
Sherrone Moore, Michigan ’24 No. 9
Mike Norvell, Florida State ’24 No. 10
Lincoln Riley, USC ’23 No. 6
Brent Venables, Oklahoma ’22 No. 9
Dave Aranda, Baylor ’22 No. 10
Matt Campbell, Iowa State ’21 No. 7
James Franklin, Penn State ’20 No. 7
Mario Cristobal, Oregon ’20 No. 9
Brian Kelly, Notre Dame ’16 No. 10
Lane Kiffin, USC ’12 No. 1
No longer a current head coach, new Florida State offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn had two preseason Top 10 teams when he was at Auburn in 2015 and 2018 that finished the season unranked.
And then there’s former Texas A&M and Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher.
Now a TV analyst, Fisher is in a league of his own taking preseason Top 10 teams to outside the Top 25 by season’s end. Fisher holds the distinction as the only coach in college football history that had three different preseason top 10 teams finish unranked at season’s end: Florida State (2017) and Texas A&M (2021 and 2022).
Full 2025 Preseason AP Top 25
1. Texas
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Georgia
6. Notre Dame
7. Oregon
8. Alabama
9. LSU
10. Miami (FL)
11. Arizona State
12. Illinois
13. South Carolina
14. Michigan
15. Florida
16. SMU
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma
19. Texas A&M
20. Indiana
21. Ole Miss
22. Iowa State
23. Texas Tech
24. Tennessee
25. Boise State
Category: General Sports
