Michigan State Spartans Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

2025 will be Michigan State‘s second season under head coach Jonathan Smith. After finishing 5-7 one year ago, the Spartans are looking to make their first bowl game since 2021 this fall.

Michigan State has had seven 10-win seasons since 2010, and is hoping to trend toward that mark again this fall. However, getting to a bowl game will be the immediate priority for the Spartans.

With only a few short weeks to go until the start of the new season, Phil Steele attempted to predict the Spartans’ forecast in 2025. How does he see Michigan State shaping up offensively and defensively?

Offense

Michigan State ranked 13th in passing and 14th in rushing in terms of total yardage among Big Ten programs in 2025. The Spartans were also one of four teams in the conference to average under 20 points per game (19.3).

Phil Steele: “In 2023, six starters were back but in a disjointed season the numbers fell even further to 15.9 ppg and 289 ypg! Smith’s Oregon St. teams always had a solid run game but the Line and receiving corps were question marks into 2024. My computer called for 321.6 ypg and 22.7 ppg and they were right there with 333 ypg and 19.3 ppg. The banged up offensive line which allowed 34 sacks was a major culprit. This year with a much improved O-Line and now veteran QB, they should put up their best numbers since 2021.”

Defense

Michigan State struggled against the pass rush in 2024, accumulating 19.0 sacks last season. That’s good for 16th best out of 18 teams in the conference.

Phil Steele: “Last year, outstanding DC Joe “Guru” Rossi came over from Minnesota. He had rebuilt the Line – losing 3 starters – and during the season the secondary was decimated by injuries – 9 DBs getting injured, including 3 starters. They could not blitz at times in order to protect the secondary. They went through an amazing stretch of 6 games without a sack, but my computer called for them to allow 26.0 ppg and they allowed 26.1!!

“Mich. St did hold foes to just 332 ypg and 29 pg below their average. This year, they lose 5 starters (4 of top 5 tacklers), but last year’s injuries and some great portal additions give them solid depth in all 3 phases. With Rossi calling the shots, this defense will surprise.”

2025 Forecast

Improvements on both offense and defense bode well for Michigan State’s 2025 forecast. Steele predicts this team will find its way into bowl contention by the end of the season.

Phil Steele: “This is Year 2 for Coach Smith and including transfers he has 15 returning starters. The schedule is tough again with home games vs Michigan and Penn State and road games at USC, Nebraska, Indy. Minnesota and Iowa with only 3 Big Ten games in Spartan Stadium. They have a now veteran QB and a very underrated defense and, despite the schedule, are capable of getting to a bowl but not yet ready to get back to contending in the loaded Big Ten.”