Arch Manning expectations have Texas at No. 1 in preseason poll. Are we sure he is ready?

If everything we know about Texas’ starting quarterback was exactly the same except that his name was Art Janning instead of Arch Manning, the Longhorns would not be the No. 1 team in the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll. 

No disrespect intended, of course. The Longhorns have established themselves as one of the nation’s elite programs under Steve Sarkisian, a talent-accumulating factory that might already have a national championship if not for a shaky play call from the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter of last season’s semifinal against Ohio State.

But to believe the Longhorns are a deserving No. 1 – which is where a plurality of voters in the coaches’ poll have them heading into 2025 – requires corresponding conviction that Manning is ready to live up to his family name and high school reputation. 

I just have one question about that: Are we sure? 

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Pull the name off the jersey. Forget about the maturity, the presumed intangibles, the osmosis of a lifetime spent in proximity to two uncles who did some pretty good things on the football field. What do we really see? 

We see a player who has thrown a mere 95 passes in two seasons on campus, a player who didn’t play a meaningful snap against a good team last season outside of some situation-specific quarterback run packages. We also see a quarterback who was apparently not a viable option for Sarkisian in the second half of last season, even when it was clear that starter Quinn Ewers was not 100 percent healthy and dragging down the potential of Texas’ offense. 

Maybe it’s not fair to read into that. Coaches are notoriously weird about quarterbacks, hypersensitive to locker room dynamics and public perception if they even acknowledge the possibility of a change. If Sarkisian’s loyalty to Ewers wavered even an inch, it would have unleashed a cacophony of noise around the Texas program that might have been worse than watching his quarterback throw six interceptions over the final five games. 

That said, if Manning wasn’t ready to give Texas a better chance to win a national title last year when the deck was stacked in the Longhorns’ favor everywhere else on their roster, isn’t it fair to be a little skeptical that he’s going to be ready now? 

Most folks, it seems, are not skeptical. Manning begins the 2025 season as the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at some prominent sports books. Texas was the far-and-away choice among SEC media members to win the league in their preseason poll, with Manning being named to the all-conference third team. And in perhaps the most outrageous bout of Arch Madness we’ve seen yet, ESPN/SEC Network commentator Paul Finebaum predicted he would be “the best college quarterback we have seen since Tim Tebow entered the scene in 2006.”

Mind you, since Tebow’s Heisman run in 2007, we’ve seen Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels come through college football. If Manning is even in the top half of that group, then yes, Texas will probably be this year’s national champion. 

But can’t we just slow down a little bit given, you know, the lack of on-field evidence that Manning deserves this level of expectation? 

A year ago, Manning in fact did get his chance to start for Texas when Ewers strained his oblique muscle in the middle of their third game against Texas-San Antonio. Manning remained at the controls for the next two home games against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State and was largely good. Not transcendently great, but good. 

Then Ewers return from injury, and that was pretty much Manning’s season for all intents and purposes. Two full games and a little more than half of a third, all against bad opponents. And that was with the best and most experienced offensive line in college football protecting him. It’s not a critique of Manning whatsoever to say we didn’t learn much about what he’s capable of. 

Sarkisian talks about Manning in far more measured tones. He understands what the two-year buildup of hype has created and the potential for narratives to turn quickly if his quarterback plays poorly in the opener against No. 2 Ohio State. He also knows that turning over four starters on the offensive line is a wildcard that will probably make things incrementally more challenging for his inexperienced quarterback. 

“He's a great guy. He's a great teammate,” Sarkisian said last month at SEC Media Days. “He's got an unbelievable work ethic. And I think, if he stays true to himself, that's going to help him navigate these waters as they present themselves. We've got to do a great job of supporting him around him, as coaches, as players, and ultimately, I think he's prepared for the moment. But now it's just time for him to go do it and enjoy doing it quite frankly.”

Notice that’s quite a bit different than how Sarkisian spoke the same day about “the deepest and most talented defense that we’ve had” or the receiving corps that “we’re really excited about.” 

Maybe that’s just Sarkisian intentionally lowering the temperature, with the full understanding that his fan base has been frothing to watch Manning finally take his place in Texas history. Or maybe there’s a tiny part of him that’s skeptical his quarterback can live up to the trail of hosannas laid in front of him based more on name and reputation than on-field accomplishment. 

One way or another, after more than half a decade of hearing about the next-in-line to the Manning quarterback dynasty, we won’t have to wait long for an answer. 

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Arch Manning, Texas top preseason poll Top 25 with huge expectations