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The Lions had another heartbreak in the playoffs.

It's hard to imagine anyone rooting against the Detroit Lions. They have a likable team led by a relatable head coach, a passionate fan base and have been terrible for most of their existence. Their rise to the elite tier of the NFL has been fun.

So there's no joy in wondering if the Lions' best chances for that elusive Super Bowl appearance have already past. It's possible Detroit fans will be sitting around 20, 30 years from now and still rueing how the 2023 and 2024 seasons ended.

Ranking playoff losses by the level of heartbreak isn't the most healthy exercise, so let's just say that the Lions' past two playoff losses are tied for first. In the NFC championship game two seasons ago, the Lions led the San Francisco 49ers 24-10 and their win probability reached 90.4%, according to Next Gen Stats. San Francisco stormed back to win.

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Last season hurt in a different way. The Lions had a historic season, going 15-2 with the fourth-highest scoring team ever at 564 points. All they had to do was win two home games to make the Super Bowl. The Lions were 15-4 at home over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, including postseason, heading into their playoff game against the Washington Commanders.

That game against the Commanders felt like quicksand, with the Lions sinking further every time they tried to take a step. A defense that was decimated by injuries was chasing Washington and its rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels all game. Detroit's offense suddenly couldn't stop making mistakes and turning the ball over. The Lions lost 45-31 and it was hard to put into words the devastation for a franchise that has never even been to a Super Bowl.

There have been only nine teams in NFL history to win 15 regular-season games. Before last season, only one didn't win a playoff game. Now it's two. The 2011 Green Bay Packers were a great team but ultimately more forgettable than the 2010 team that went 10-6 but won a Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Lions, they don't yet have that Super Bowl win to ease the pain of that unexpected one-and-done.

"It's disappointing. It's hard," quarterback Jared Goff said. "We had everything we wanted. Home-field advantage, the fans were incredible and unfortunately, we just let it slip out of our hands."

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When you become good, other teams pick at your roster and coaching staff. For decades, nobody wanted Lions coordinators. This past offseason, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn were two of the top three candidates on the head-coaching market, with Mike Vrabel being the other. Johnson was hired by the Chicago Bears and Glenn went to the New York Jets. It won't be easy to replace two of the best coordinators in football. The Lions have had a great offensive line the past few years but 40 percent of it needs to be replaced after guard Kevin Zeitler left in free agency and center Frank Ragnow retired. That's another huge blow.

The good news is Detroit is still very, very good. The Lions' roster is still full of blue-chip players. Dan Campbell looks like one of the better head coaches in the league. And maybe the losses at coordinator won't be that bad. John Morton, who was on the Lions' staff in 2022 and spent the past two seasons with Sean Payton in Denver, takes Johnson's place as offensive coordinator. Glenn is replaced as defensive coordinator by Kelvin Sheppard, who was coaching Detroit's linebackers the past four seasons. They're both capable of keeping the Lions heading in the right direction.

But things change quickly in the NFL. The Philadelphia Eagles look hard to beat in the NFC. The NFC North is the toughest division in the league. Injuries can hit at the wrong times, which the Lions know all too well. Sometimes you catch the wrong matchup against a red-hot team in the playoffs, which Detroit also knows all about.

Detroit will remain one of the best teams in the NFL. But you can be an elite team and never make a Super Bowl. After letting incredible opportunities slip by each of the past two seasons, then losing a lot of coaching and playing talent in the offseason, the Lions have to fear that possibility.

Lions coach Dan Campbell looks on during his team's divisional round playoff loss to the Commanders last season. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images) — Lions head coach Dan Campbell looks on during his team's divisional-round playoff loss to the Commanders last season. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)

Offseason grade

The Lions have spent a lot of money on big contracts for their stars, but still found enough money to sign one of the best free agents on the market. D.J. Reed signed a three-year, $48 million deal. Reed was a sought after free agent but his deal, in terms of average annual value, was only fourth among cornerbacks who changed teams in the offseason. The Lions got a slight discount for an upgrade over Carlton Davis III, who left for the New England Patriots. The offseason was rough on the offensive line, with guard Kevin Zeitler leaving in free agency and center Frank Ragnow retiring at age 29. Zeitler was ranked as the NFL's third-best guard in Pro Football Focus' grades last season and Ragnow was the No. 2 center. Detroit drafted defensive tackle Tyleik Williams in the first round and offensive lineman Tate Ratledge in the second. Ratledge could play a big role right away with Zeitler and Ragnow gone.

Grade: C

Quarterback report

Jared Goff didn't look like a mainstay at quarterback for the Lions when they traded for him in 2021, but that's what he became. He has a 100.2 passer rating in his four Lions seasons, and over the past three seasons he has averaged 4,547 yards and 32 touchdowns per season.

Of course, those three seasons came with Ben Johnson running the offense. Johnson is off to Chicago, and now Goff has to prove he can have the same level of success with John Morton replacing Johnson as offensive coordinator. Goff said the two already have a good rapport, and part of that was Morton being in Detroit for the 2022 season as a senior offensive assistant. Morton has said he wants to maintain the status quo — "I mean, I'm not changing much,” he said, via the Detroit Free Press. “Why? It's working, right?" — and Goff seems to already have a good vibe with him.

"Johnny's been great. He's got such great ideas," Goff told Fox 2 in Detroit. "He was here a few years ago and so helpful for Ben in that first year, just ideas and whatnot, and he’s continued with that. Seeing some of the ideas that he’s brought to us from the passing game standpoint is stuff I’ve never done before, but I’ve seen around the league. Him being able to teach it to us in a certain way and show us how to do things, and certainly it will still be a lot of the same stuff we’ve done, but there’s a lot of really cool new wrinkles that he’s been able to add that I’m really excited about."

BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “This is still one of the best rosters in the league, but it does feel like Detroit’s Super Bowl window is closing. Losing both coordinators (Aaron Glenn to Jets, Ben Johnson to Bears) to head coaching jobs will be tough to replace, along with the surprise retirement of center Frank Ragnow. But Aidan Hutchinson’s return from injury and the free-agent signing of edge rusher Marcus Davenport should help the pass rush. Detroit still has a win total of 10.5 at BetMGM, is a heavy favorite (-200) to make the postseason and has the second-best odds (+475) behind the Eagles to win the NFC. Can they break through in the playoffs this season?"

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “The market gets nervous when someone like Ben Johnson leaves Detroit, but Jared Goff is a tenured quarterback in Detroit — he's essentially a coordinator for this offensive unit. Goff isn't going to forget what's worked with Amon-Ra St. Brown the last four years. The Sun God lost some volume last year but made it for it with a spike in his touchdown rate. But even if he regresses to the 2022 touchdown rate, we're still talking about a player with a very high floor. I have no problem paying the sticker on St. Brown, which is somewhere in the 9-12 range in most Yahoo leagues."

Stat to remember

This won't surprise anyone who paid the slightest attention to the 2024 Lions, but they finished the season as the most injured defense in the NFL. The Lions had 86.5 adjusted games lost to injury on defense according to FTN Fantasy, most in the league. FTN's Aaron Schatz said that was the sixth-most games lost on defense since he started tracking the stat in 2001. Despite that, the Lions' defense finished fifth in DVOA. There's a reason Aaron Glenn is off to coach the Jets.

The biggest injury was to defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who looked like he might make a run for NFL Defensive Player of the Year before he suffered a grisly broken leg in Detroit's fifth game. Through five games Hutchinson had 7.5 sacks. The reports on Hutchinson's health have been positive, and getting him back will change Detroit's defense. The Lions had to blitz more without him, which puts extra stress on the back seven. Other players will return from injury and assuming the bad injury luck doesn't happen two straight seasons, Detroit's defense should rebound. Not that it was bad last season, despite all those injuries.

Burning question

Can Jahmyr Gibbs handle more?

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the best 1-2 running back punch in the NFL. But we all know Gibbs is the better talent.

The Lions have split the work between the two backs and with great results. Gibbs has started just seven games in two seasons, a nod of respect to Montgomery and his role. But Gibbs showed last season how great he can be as the clear featured back. Gibbs started the final three games last season with Montgomery out, and he had 477 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns while logging three of his four largest carry totals of the season. Montgomery wasn't 100% in the playoffs and Gibbs had 175 total yards and two touchdowns. It will be hard to resist seeing how much more Gibbs can handle in his third season. We've already seen what the results could look like.

The Lions don't really spread the ball around much. Almost all of the production will come from these players: Gibbs, Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. That's a pretty good nucleus to rely on. Gibbs had 1,929 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns last season despite sharing with those other stars, particularly Montgomery. We'll see if new coordinator John Morton plans to use Gibbs a little more this season.

Best-case scenario

For once, maybe the loss of coordinators is being overstated? Probably not, because Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn were fantastic. But John Morton promises to not change the offense much, and new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard has learned from Glenn the past four seasons. Yet, there hasn't been a Lions discussion all offseason without mentioning Johnson and Glenn, while ignoring that the roster is pretty much the same. The Lions' offense was one of the highest scoring in NFL history with an array of star players and Detroit's defense was mostly very good despite a ridiculous run of injuries. In DVOA the Lions finished second in offense, fifth in defense (with all those injuries) and first in special teams. It's really hard to finish first in all three phases, but that's actually possible for the Lions. A top three finish across the board is definitely not a stretch. The Lions would have done it last season if not for the defensive injuries. Detroit went 15-2 last season and that's unlikely to repeat. But finishing with the best record in the NFL, taking advantage of a No. 1 seed to win the NFC and going on to win Super Bowl LX is obviously on the table for the Lions.

Nightmare scenario

The loss of two great coordinators is not the Lions' only concern. The strength of Detroit the past few seasons has been the NFL's best or second-best offensive line just behind Philadelphia. Losing one of the best centers and guards in the league without a great replacement plan turns the Lions' strength into a potential issue. Detroit's offensive line won't fall too far — just like the offense and defense won't collapse without Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn — but the Lions have a surprisingly small cushion. They play in the only division in the NFL in which all four teams should be viewed as playoff-level teams. Detroit won 15 games last season and didn't clinch the division until the final game of the regular season, and a similar test from the Minnesota Vikings, Packers, Bears or maybe all three should be expected. A small step back could cost the Lions the NFC North, forcing Detroit on the road in the playoffs. And we all know that anything less than a Super Bowl season would be a disappointment.

The crystal ball says

It's weird to talk about the Lions in "Super Bowl or bust" terms, but here we are. Detroit has already advanced to an NFC championship game and it just posted the greatest regular season in franchise history. Only one step remains. The way the playoffs ended for Detroit the past two seasons adds to the urgency. The Lions know they're close, but getting over the hump is hard. I think the Lions have at least one more season as NFC North champs, but the rest of the division is coming on fast. And coming into this season, the Eagles look like the better team in the NFC. I won't rule out Detroit clearly being the best team in football now that its defense is healthier, but I'm not as confident about that as I was a year ago. While the Lions winning a Super Bowl would still be one of the greatest stories in American sports, every year that passes lessens the possibility of it happening. The window won't stay open much longer.

Category: General Sports