Is this Justin Gaethje’s swan song? Are we about to enter the “Paddy the Baddy” era?
After a six-week hiatus, the UFC returns this week with its first premium show, UFC 324. Since these numbered cards can no longer be call pay-per-views (since they aren’t directly for sale), they will be called … well, numbered cards. The good news is UFC 324 is fairly stacked, with an interim lightweight title fight between Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje, as well as a big-time bantamweight fight with direct title implications between Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong.
As always with cards like these, we have questions.
Let’s jump in and address the most burning among them!
It’s no doubt the biggest spot of Paddy Pimblett’s career, headlining the first big card of a new era — but is Justin Gaethje his toughest test?
Petesy: It cannot be understated how big a step up this is for Paddy Pimblett. To break this down in out-of-camp Paddy terms, this is like going from a Happy Meal to an XL Big Mac meal with a side of nuggets. Although a lot of people thought Justin Gaethje was passed his sell-by date on a number of occasions, he proved against Rafael Fiziev he’s still got that dog in him.
I don’t know if his unsuccessful claims to the lightweight crown have led people to underestimate him, but I feel he’s being undervalued as the UFC appears to be cranking the superstar machine into overdrive for Pimblett.
Chuck: Listen, Petesy, I am a card-carrying member of the Jordan Leavitt Fan club, but even I can admit he’s no Justin Gaethje. This is a massive step up for Pimblett, who has feasted on the lightweights who are longest in the tooth — Tony Ferguson (41), King Green (39) and Michael Chandler (39). Gaethje, at 37, is a spring chicken by comparison.
As you mentioned, Gaethje still brings it, too. Both fights with Rafael Fiziev were acts of defiance in the most impressive way, as Gaethje took out a guy that many of us had bookmarked as a future champion. It’s going to be an interesting litmus test for Pimblett, who has some kryptonite at his disposal with the grappling game. The other thing here, Petesy, which isn’t insignificant? This is Paddy’s first UFC main event. He has handled himself well in the spotlight so far, but this moment is unlike any he has faced.
What happens with Justin Gaethje if he loses?
Chuck: I am not sure what’s left for Gaethje if he loses because down the stretch all motivations have been geared toward winning a title. Once that’s off the table, is he going to go back to fighting top-10 guys and try to make his way back? I think that prospect will depress him, unless there’s a legacy fight out there that he’s been wanting.
Most likely scenario in my mind is Gaethje calls it a career if he can’t get by Paddy. It doesn’t help that he seems to be at odds with the UFC financially as we head into UFC 324, saying the money in the new era is no different than the money in the old. If the dollar signs aren’t even a strong enough lure to keep him around, I can’t think of why he’d stay.
Petesy: That’s a good shout, Chuck. Honestly, with the amount of emphasis he put on wanting to fight for the title after his loss to Max Holloway, it feels like he wanted one last crack at immortality before he heads off into the sunset. Based on how averse he was to fighting in anything but a title fight, I think it would be difficult for him to start at the bottom rung of the rankings and work his way up again. As entertaining and violent as he has been, I don’t really see him falling into the category of just having “fun fights” either, so I think you’ve hit the nail on the head here.
If Sean O’Malley beats Song Yadong, do you make the rematch with Petr Yan next for the bantamweight title? And in that case, what do we do with Merab Dvalishvili?
Petesy: Of course, Merab Dvalishvili should be the dude fighting for the title next, but that just isn’t how the modern-day UFC works. Sean O’Malley is the money fight at bantamweight, and he will take precedence in the title stakes with any kind of win over Song Yadong.
You know what? In this one case, let meritocracy be damned because the first three-round fight between Yan and the man you once described as “an exotic bird” was an all-time banger. I thought Yan won the damn thing despite the judges going in the other direction. A five-round rematch would be fantastic, and I think every MMA fan would love to see it.
As for Merab, I hope he does the opposite of what he did last year. I hope he waits in the cut and lets his body heal. The best version of him (although maybe not the one the UFC loves the most) can beat both of those guys, and who wouldn’t want to see him attempt to regain his throne later this year, regardless of the outcome?
Chuck: Yeah, with you on this one, Petesy. I think the UFC has a slam dunk to pair O’Malley with Yan should “Suga” Sean prevail this weekend. And you’re right — it’s a damn good fight. It has nothing to do with the meaningless feel of Diego Lopes getting another crack at Alexander Volkanovski. Most people thought Yan won the first fight, as he had six takedowns and nearly six minutes of control. Give it five rounds to play out?
That’s gold.
As for Merab, not to pinky-link and skip along with you here, but I have to agree again. He could use a little time off after four title fights in 2025. That version who lost to Yan wasn’t his best, and I think he was a little conflicted as he wanted to make it an entertaining fight. If the UFC wants to make a fight for Merab, give him Umar Nurmagomedov if Umar gets by Deiveson Figueiredo. That first fight was fun, and they don’t like each other (which is also fun).
Man, after typing all that and believing a good deal of it … Song Yadong can sure bring a lot of scenarios crashing down come Saturday!
Oddsmakers have Rose Namajunas as a big underdog against Natalia Silva — what shot do you give her to pull the upset?
Chuck: The one thing I have learned in my Rose Namajunas connoisseurship is that you never count her out. The times I have, she shines brilliantly. The best examples are the ones that have filled in her legacy — the back-to-back wins over Joanna Jedrzejczyk, the avenging win over Jessica Andrade, and then the two wins over Zhang Weili. Against Jedrzejczyk she was a huge underdog, and people thought Joanna Champion was in her head. Turns out, it was the opposite.
I think Silva is a dangerous, unsung fighter who at 28 years old is just coming into her own. The work she put in against Alexa Grasso was eye-opening, and she has looked tremendous going 7-0 in the UFC. But, I think the line — Rose a +310 underdog at BetMGM — is a little wonky here, Petesy. In my mind, Rose is the best opponent Silva will have faced, so parlay-ists beware.
Petesy: You’re absolutely correct in terms of Rose being able to find an extra gear when it matters most, but I do think that Zhang and Joanna fought her in her own wheelhouse for the most part. Silva represents a challenge in an area where Rose has sometimes suffered: getting out from underneath a dominant grappler.
We saw this recently with Erin Blanchfield. In that fight, “Thug” was held on the canvas for nearly nine minutes. Although the flyweight move has helped her look slicker on the feet against larger opponents, her smaller frame can go against her when facing a top-heavy mauler.
Although “mauler” isn’t the best word to describe Silva, she has the grappling chops to make this a really tough night at the office for Namajunas.
Arnold Allen and Jean Silva kick off the main card, so it’s prediction time — does the winner of this bout fight for a featherweight title in 2026?
Petesy: Well, it seems as though Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev will never fight for the belt, so why the hell not, Chuck?
I really like this fight, though. I think the bookies are doing our boy Arnie dirty with that line too (+225 underdog at BetMGM). Diego Lopes showed us some serious holes in Silva’s game, and I’ll be surprised if our meal-deal loving friend doesn’t capitalize on things he learned in that fight.
Easy for me to say, of course. I won’t have a fully grown man hanging off the fence and barking at me like a dog before he fights me to the death on Saturday night. So, best of luck, I guess, Arnie.
Chuck: The path to a title will surely have to go through either Lerone or Movsar, the latter whom I have been calling to get a title shot since 1988 (or so it has felt). But, given that this Silva-Allen fight is happening in January, this somewhat absurd proposition is at least feasible. Whoever wins this should get one of those two names, and whoever wins that sits in the catbird seat for a title shot at the end of 2026.
It's funny with Jean Silva. He was all fits and fangs heading into that Mexican Independence card, and now there does seem to be some usable tape on him. People forget how good Allen can be, in part because he looks like the kind of guy who might shower at a truck stop. Of all the fights on UFC 324, this is perhaps the most intriguing to me.
BONUS: What fight on the prelims has a chance to steal the show for the big debut on Paramount+?
Chuck: I will take the low-hanging fruit here and say Ateba Gautier, Mr. Cricket Eater. That dude is who Frank Frazetta imagined when he drew “Conan the Barbarian.” More than that, he strikes with great force. Deliberate. Poised. Terrifying.
It’s funny, I had a piece about Ateba this week. I didn’t get to use the quote, but I asked him if he could take one of his own punches. This made him very contemplative indeed.
“I honestly don’t know,” he said, not wanting to discount his chin. Then he thought of it from an offensive perspective, and added, “I hit hard.”
Petesy: Gautier is definitely the most hyped prospect of the year so that’s a helluva choice, Chuck. I’m quite looking forward to seeing how Umar Nurmagomedov gets on against former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Umar is the biggest favorite on the card, and for those odds you’d expect him to cut through the Brazilian like a knife through butter. Something tells me Figgy Smalls won’t go out like that, and I expect him to make a fight of it before ultimately coming up short against the Dagestani bantamweight.
Category: General Sports
