The American Express DFS picks 2026: I'm buying this player who thrives in birdie-fests

The PGA Tour returns to the mainland as players head to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, Calif., for The American Express at PGA West.

The first stop on the annual West Coast swing is one of the few remaining pro-ams on the PGA Tour schedule, featuring three rounds played alongside amateurs on a three-course rotation. The Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course will each host one of the opening rounds. The 156-player field will rotate across the three venues before the cut, with those who advance returning to the Stadium Course for the final round.

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While the 2024 renovation of the greens and bunkers by Tim Liddy made the Stadium Course play significantly tougher last season (-0.65 strokes per round), La Quinta Country Club (-2.97) and the Nicklaus Tournament Course (-2.75) have ranked as the two easiest annual courses on the PGA Tour over the past three years. Designed by Pete Dye, the Stadium Course is defined by a demanding set of par 3s, numerous visually intimidating bunkers and water hazards that come into play on seven holes.

Each course in the rotation shares many of the same characteristics. With typically calm winds and clear desert skies, this event is often described as “dome golf,” creating some of the easiest scoring conditions players will face all season. All three layouts feature four scoreable par 5s and measure around 7,200 yards or less. They also share similar agronomy, with smooth Poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways bordered by a non-penal first cut of overseeded rye rough, followed by a layer of dormant Bermuda rough beyond that.

From a DFS standpoint, the “Scottie Scheffler dilemma” begins in earnest this week. Checking in with a DraftKings salary of $14,200, he has only been priced higher at last year’s Procore Championship (which he won). Let's be honest, if you are multi-entering contests, it's not whether you should play Scheffler, but how much you should play him. On a week-to-week basis, the answer to that question will be largely determined by the depth of the field. With this week’s American Express being the strongest field in its recent memory, there are plenty of lower-tier golfers with upside to build around Scheffler in your lineups.

Golf Digest Logo 9 players who will make you money in 2026

Mike Mulholland

If you’re choosing to fade Scheffler, there are several strong options at the top of the board, and I’m going right back to Ben Griffin this week. After a T-19 at the Sony Open, Griffin is one of the few players in this range with competitive reps already under his belt early in the season. He also ranks third best in the field in birdie-fests (events that play at -1.50 per round or easier) averaging -1.64 strokes per round. What really stands out, though, is his experience in tournaments similar to the American Express: Among golfers in this price range, Griffin has played the most rounds in birdie-fests over the past three years with 81.

Burns has always tended to thrive in easier scoring conditions with nine top-eight finishes in “birdie-fest” events since 2021, and a scoring average of -1.48 per round (fifth best in the field). Per our Rabbit Hole data, he is sixth in the field in proximity to the hole from the crucial 100-150 yard wedge range. He also has three top-11 finishes in his six appearances at the American Express.

The ability to spike with short irons on approach is one of the key metrics in my modeling process this week. Not only has English struggled with his recent approach form, but over the past 18 months he has gained 2+ strokes on approach in just 8.4 percent of his rounds—the lowest rate in this tier. Additionally, English is far better suited for difficult scoring environments, gaining 0.83 strokes per round in tougher conditions compared to just 0.19 strokes per round in birdie-fests over the last three years.

Jonathan Bachman

While I also love both Alex Noren and Taylor Pendrith in this range, J.T. Poston offers more savings in lineups with Scheffler. Poston has among the most extreme positive splits on “very easy” courses gaining an average of 1.63 strokes per round compared to only gaining 0.17 on difficult courses. Though course history matters little for this event, Poston has gained the sixth-most total strokes in the field since 2015 at PGA West, including four top-12 finishes.

The young Danish Ryder Cup phenom endured a somewhat rocky first season on the PGA Tour, recording just one top-10 finish in 2025. While he has flashed upside with both spike approach play and hot putting, those traits are both necessities this week. That said, I have concerns about Hojgaard’s ability to keep pace in an event that demands birdies in bunches from the opening hole. He is also far more effective with long irons than from wedge range, where roughly 33 percent of approach shots are expected to come this week.

Cliff Hawkins

Berger looked very sharp at last week’s Sony Open finishing T-6 and gaining 3.5+ strokes both on the greens and on approach. Over the past nine months, he has gained the eighth-most strokes on approach out of any player in the American Express field. Over the years, he has also possessed an affinity for desert courses similar to PGA West. Per our Rabbit Hole data, in his past 50 rounds played at “desert” courses, he has the fourth-best SG average in the field, gaining an average of 1.40 strokes per round.

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Mike Mulholland

When combining “easy scoring” with “short courses,” Cole is ninth-best in the American Express field gaining 1.06 strokes per round over the past three years. At last week’s Sony Open, coastal winds and penal Bermuda rough turned Waialae into a much more difficult test than expected. Cole once again struggled to find the fairway, yet gained 1.6 strokes on approach in his two rounds. With three guaranteed rounds this week on short resort courses with little threat of danger off the tee, I’ll lean on his skill set of strong approach play and putting in a tournament that accentuates those qualities.

Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X) is a PGA Tour data analyst for Betsperts Golf.