UNC’s season is wobbling, and the spotlight is back on Hubert Davis

North Carolina’s season is unraveling before the heart of ACC play even arrives, and Hubert Davis is suddenly facing the most scrutiny of his tenure in Chapel Hill.

Although North Carolina is 14-4 on the season, which isn’t terrible, the Tar Heels have lost three of their last four games, including an 84-78 loss to Cal that saw the Bears shoot 50% from the field (29-for-58) and a blistering 62.5% from 3-point range (10-for-16). It marked the fourth straight game the Tar Heels have surrendered at least 40% from beyond the arc. Since the start of ACC play, opponents have hit 72 3-pointers against UNC, an average of 14.4 per game.

The Tar Heels’ terrible defensive play isn’t going to get any better soon, especially with North Carolina yet to reach the heart of ACC play. And given the expectations placed on Carolina going into the season, it could be Hubert Davis’ last season as head coach.

That’s what many Carolina fans are saying and thinking, and it’s not unreasonable to do so given the amount of expectations on the Tar Heels entering the season — or every season.

However, Davis’ seat isn’t hot, but it’s definitely past 80 degrees Fahrenheit.

Why it’s starting to get hot

For starters, Carolina spent $14 million for this season’s roster that includes Luka Bogavac, Kyan Evans, Henri Veesaar and, of course, Carolina’s freshman phenom Caleb Wilson.

While Veesaar and Wilson are arguably the ACC’s best backcourt duo, Bogavac and Evans aren’t in the starting lineup anymore because of their struggles of late.

And the Tar Heels’ lackluster defense, which has already cost them games — and potentially many more — is giving Davis’ detractors more reasons to say he shouldn’t be the head man in Chapel Hill.

The larger issue is the pattern. Davis’ first team stumbled through much of 2021-22 before catching fire, upsetting Duke in Coach K’s final home game and riding a Cinderella run to the national title game. A year later, North Carolina opened as the preseason No. 1 and ended as the first team in that spot to miss the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded in 1985.

In 2023-24, the Tar Heels regrouped, starting at No. 19, winning the ACC regular-season title and reaching the Sweet 16. Last season, they began at No. 9, faded to unranked and barely reached the NCAA field through the First Four in Dayton.

It’s a résumé defined by wild swings — something Duke under Jon Scheyer and Virginia under Ryan Odom haven’t shared — and Carolina appears stuck, if not slipping backward.

The lack of consistency is not what Tar Heels fans want. It’s never easy to replace a legend like Roy Williams, especially for a first-time head coach like Davis.

However, Duke’s transition from Mike Krzyzewski to Jon Scheyer has been like nothing changed. Scheyer led the Blue Devils to the Final Four last season, and every year the Blue Devils have gotten better.

Virginia has also bounced back extremely quickly under Ryan Odom, and it looks like the Cavaliers are the second-best team in the conference after Duke.

Carolina is not moving forward. It’s either staying in the same place or going backward.

Why it’s not hot just yet

It’s pretty simple why he’s not on the hot seat just yet: The Tar Heels are 14-4, and there are still plenty of games left.

College basketball is a weird sport, and we have seen teams play subpar basketball and take it up a notch as the season goes along.

Two great examples of this are North Carolina’s 1997 Final Four and 2022 Final Four squads.

The 1997 squad, one that had Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison, started off the season 12-6 before going on a 16-game winning streak and advancing to the Final Four as a No. 1 seed. That team also won four straight games against ranked opponents to close out the regular season, which included wins over Tim Duncan-led No. 4 Wake Forest and No. 7 Duke.

The 2022 team spent most of the season unranked and even lost to an 11-21 Pitt team, giving the Tar Heels an 18-8 record. However, UNC followed the loss to Pitt with a five-game winning streak to end the regular season, including its shocking win over Duke in Coach K’s final home game in Cameron Indoor Stadium. That kick-started its Cinderella run to the national championship that season.

While Davis’ coaching ability is being questioned right now, the Tar Heels have a lot of time to fix issues that are largely fixable. And while his tenure has been inconsistent, a lot of programs around the country would kill for Davis’ first four years at the helm.

However, time is beginning to run out, and tension is starting to arise in the Southern Part of Heaven.

This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball: Is Hubert Davis on the hot seat?