Divisional Round X-factors: R.J. Harvey could be Bo Nix’s best outlet vs. Bills

Now that we’re full-on into the playoffs, it’s time to stop looking in the rearview with our Secret Superstars series, and start looking forward to the next game with Postseason X-Factors. The principle is the same — using game tape and metrics to uncover those hidden gems for every team who are primed to bring their best when their franchises need it the most.

The Denver Broncos are the AFC’s one-seed based on a ferocious defense and a complementary, balanced offense in its own way. One issue that could upend the Broncos on the path to their first Super Bowl berth in a decade is Bo Nix’s response to the Buffalo Bills’ pressure packages in the divisional round. Here’s where one rookie could make all the difference.

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has enjoyed a fine second NFL season for the most part, but one thing that has to have head coach and offensive shot-caller Sean Payton concerned as the Broncos’ postseason journey begins is how Nix has done against pressure. This season, Nix has completed 89 of 176 passes when pressured for 818 yards, seven touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 67.9. Among quarterbacks who have started at least 50% of their teams’ snaps, only Joe Flacco, Jordan Love, Geno Smith, and Cam Ward had lower passer ratings in the 2025 season.

While the Buffalo Bills, Denver’s divisional round opponent, don’t have one alpha pass-rusher, they manage to disrupt opposing quarterbacks just fine as a group. Their 35.1% pressure rate ranks 12th in the NFL, and fifth among the remaining playoff teams. Buffalo’s 37 sacks? That’s a bottom-third number, but when you can get enough pressure against a quarterback like Nix who would really prefer that you didn’t, that can be enough to end plays, drives, and games.

The obvious answer for Payton is to give Nix quick reads to get the ball out, and in second-round rookie R.J. Harvey, Payton has an able assistant. Throughout his time as an NFL head coach, Payton has always been great in utilizing smaller, quicker, versatile backs who can function equally in the run and pass games. Harvey has qualified in his inaugural campaign with 540 yards and seven touchdowns on 146 carries, and 47 catches on 57 targets for 356 yards and five touchdowns. At 5’9” and 208 pounds, Harvey isn’t your typical bellcow back, but when Payton and the Broncos got him, you had a pretty good idea how he’d be used.

Harvey has been a great outlet receiver when Nix is under pressure, and that could be a Very Big Thing in Saturday’s game. When pressured this season, Nix has thrown to Harvey eight times for eight completions, 77 yards, and two touchdowns. Not huge numbers, but in a one-and-done game, the quality of plays matter more than the quantity.

And Harvey is capable of more than your basic running back routes. In Week 9 against the Houston Texans’ demonic pass rush, a pressured Nix hit Harvey for a 27-yard touchdown pass with 12:34 left in the game. That and a two-point conversion pass to Troy Franklin changed the score from 15-7 in Houston’s favor to a tie game, and Wil Lutz’s 34-yard field goal as time elapsed put an 18-15 Denver win in the books.

“Look, last night we didn’t do the school songs,” Payton said postgame of this play. “We had every one of their family members call in on the video and each one said, ‘Hey, this is your play, go make it.’ So, he gets the video award. It’s a pirate route. We got the right coverage. We set it up after halfback choice, and all of a sudden take off. We’re just starting to see right in front of our eyes, [Harvey] is the guy that we felt strongly about, and he can go. He and [running back J.K.] Dobbins, that one-two combination is nice to have as a coach.”

Another example of Harvey’s route acumen came against the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day. Nix wasn’t pressured here as he was booting out to the right, but Harvey did a great job staying with Nix on the one-yard touchdown with 1:45 left in the game that made the difference in a 20-13 Broncos win.

“It was covered initially, then he climbed,” Payton said postgame of that one. “He has receiver skill sets that are – I couldn’t see the angle and I heard the cheer. I said, ‘Please tell me that isn’t an interception’. It was loud enough where I didn’t know if it was the Kansas City cheer. Fortunately, it was the Bronco cheer. I am sure it was a heck of a throw and catch. To score seven greatly changes the dynamic with their kicker. You know how the kicking game is. You are starting at the 35[-yard line] average. It greatly changed the outcome of the game, that they needed a touchdown.”

Trust us, Coach — it was a great route and adjustment.

With their defense, the Broncos don’t need Bo Nix to go out there and be Superman — they need him to manage the game, provide the occasional explosive play, and avoid mistakes. Job One for Nix’s coaches is to give him reads and openings under pressure that won’t break the machine, and R.J. Harvey has already proven that he can get it done in those circumstances.