Newcastle's Alexander Isak dilemma: Three big questions as transfer rumors rear their head

A few weeks can make a huge difference in evaluating a club's season outlook, and the flurry of reports regarding star striker Alexander Isak's mindset have put a worrying cap on a troubling fortnight at Newcastle United.

Eddie Howe's goal heading into the offseason was to act quickly in the transfer market, giving him a full preseason to bed-in new signings for a fight on several fronts including the UEFA Champions League.

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The signing of Anthony Elanga from Nottingham Forest on July 11 was a good start but has so far not signified much other than a single terrific playmaker joining the Toon Army. Isak's exit could set the entire Newcastle project back further than Elanga's arrival nudged it forward, but his staying and making double anyone else could fast-forward their plans at a head-spinning pace.

Newcastle did not exactly fail to properly fuel their last run in the UEFA Champions League, but will know what it looks like when a plan goes down a peg thanks to that season's unexpected suspension to Sandro Tonali.

Howe was ahead of schedule when he led the Magpies to the 2023-24 UCL, where a brutal group draw of AC Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, and Borussia Dortmund saw them claim just five points while exiting at the group stage. That was understandable, especially without Tonali, but it cannot happen again even in the new format if the Magpies aren't heading back to the Champions League for next season.

But there are three massive questions revolving around Isak now.

• Just how good is Alexander Isak?
• Can the Magpies compete on all fronts without him?
• Would paying Alexander Isak upset the Newcastle project?

Just how good is Alexander Isak?

Let's start here: He plays in a style that recalls legendary total strikers like Thierry Henry and he produces like a one-man army. Isak's 23 goals in the Premier League last season trailed only Mohamed Salah (thanks in part to Erling Haaland's injuries limiting him to 22).

Granted Newcastle had perhaps the most-complete midfield in the Premier League last season, but also consider the men around him on the following lists.

Premier League expected goals/90 minutes, 2024-25

minimum 1500 minutes

1. Erling Haaland, 0.78
2. Mohamed Salah, 0.74
3. Alexander Isak, 0.71
4. Yoane Wissa, 0.63
5. Ollie Watkins, 0.63

Premier League xG=xA/90 minutes (excluding penalties), 2024-25

minimum 1500 minutes

1. Bukayo Saka, 1.01
2. Mohamed Salah, 0.97
3. Erling Haaland, 0.80
4. Alexander Isak, 0.79
5. Kevin De Bruyne, 0.76
6. Dango Ouattara, 0.76
7. Yoane Wissa, 0.74

Haaland is the tip of the spear of the best chance-producing team of the last decade, Salah was on the Premier League champions and a European Cup contender, while Saka's Arsenal were sensational while trophy-less.

Perhaps more relevant? City, Liverpool, and Arsenal were three of the four top possession teams in the league, all 57% or better. Newcastle were ninth at 51.2% and eighth in big chances. There's no guarantee he'd better with better service, but the probability is very high.

Newcastle's next-best xG producers were Anthony Gordon, 35th in the PL, and Harvey Barnes (45th). Isak is exceptional.

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Can the Magpies compete on all fronts without him?

Well, this is a loaded question that will test the depth of Newcastle's scouting department.

Assuming Newcastle would only accept a bid somewhere near their British record evaluation of just over $200 million, the Magpies will be able to bring in a striker who won't fall too far off Isak's levels but the real test is in how Newcastle supplement that move.

Say Newcastle woos Benjamin Sesko or another hotshot center forward who would be a safe bet to near 20 goals in the Premier League if healthy. Where will they spend the rest of that money to ensure proper depth for both a top-four challenge and knockout round caliber UCL contestant?

I'll call upon a previous argument here. This isn't quite the same case as when Liverpool simply had to accept the crazy Barcelona offer for Philippe Coutinho. It's a lot closer to Real Madrid's purchase of Gareth Bale.

And it's about the speed of business. If Newcastle are forced to sell Isak, it is imperative that know exactly where they are going with the money and seal those deals post-haste. Being ready for the start of the season absent such a key piece as Isak requires time.

Would paying Alexander Isak upset the Newcastle project?

To me, this is the only question that really matters.

Newcastle's new ownership have the wealth to make the club one of the world's behemoths. At some point, it will be paying someone like Isak his reported request of a $330,000+ per week pay packet.

Fourteen players in the PL made that sort of money last year: Six play for Man City, four for Man Utd, two for Arsenal, and one each for Liverpool and Chelsea.

But that $330,000+ would be well over $100,000 more than Newcastle's current top earner in Bruno Guimaraes, a player just a bit older but nearly as important.

That doesn't mean every Newcastle player will immediately demand a raise, but it will mean that new additions and blossomed stars will no longer measure their offers by Guimaraes.