Cubs BCB After Dark: Should the Cubs trade Nico Hoerner?

It’s a new week here at BCB After Dark, the grooviest gathering of night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. Come on in out of the cold. We’ve got a fire going in here. There’s no cover charge. We can check your coat for you. The hostess will seat you now. Bring your own beverage.

BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.

Last week I asked you about your opinion of the Edward Cabrera trade, which seems like old news by now. In any case, 81 percent of you were enthusiastic about the deal and only four percent were against it. The rest of you were “meh.”

Here’s the part where we listen to jazz and talk movies. The BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic is well underway, but there’s always time to jump in. But you’re free to skip ahead if you want. You won’t hurt my feelings.

Tonight we have one of those videos from pianist Emmet Cohen, where he invites a bunch of talented musicians to come play with him and he puts the results up on YouTube. Tonight, Cohen is joined by saxophonist Joshua Redman and trumpeter Skylar Tang. Philip Norris on the bass and Kyle Poole on drums round out the ensemble.

This is Charlie Parker’s “Scrapple from the Apple.” This video was released just last week.

You voted in the BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic and as I suspected, Planet of the Apes (1968) came out on top over La Jetée. I love both films, even if they couldn’t be more different. Even though it lost, I’m still quite happy about how many of you wrote that you love La Jetée or that you discovered it through this tournament. Again, if you’re a fan of 12 Monkeys, La Jetée is a must watch.

Tonight is our final second-round matchup in the “New Hollywood” bracket, with 2001: A Space Odyssey taking on Seconds.

1. 2001: A Space Odyssey. (1968) Directed by Stanley Kubrick. Starring Keir Dullea and Gary Lockwood.

Here’s what I wrote last time about 2001: A Space Odyssey.

2001 is one of those films that I assume that everyone who cares to follow along with this tournament has seen at least once. I also think it’s a film that’s aged well. That it’s ranked as one of the top ten films of all-time in the lastest BFI Sight & Sound poll speaks to that. It seems like “artificial intelligence gone rogue” is more relevant today than it was in 1968. And unlike every other science fiction film from this era, the special effects still hold up today.

Here’s director Christopher Nolan giving his thoughts on 2001: A Space Odyssey.

5. Seconds (1966) Directed by John Frankenheimer. Starring Rock Hudson and Salome Jens.

Here’s what I wrote last time on Seconds.

Here’s Criterion giving three reasons to watch Seconds.

I also have to stress what an incredible matchup of cinematographers we have tonight. Geoffrey Unsworth on 2001 had the unenviable task of getting all those special effects shots right and making sure they have the biggest impact. But Seconds’ James Wong Howe may be the greatest cinematographer of all-time (although there is some competition for that title) and he does a masterful job making the look of Seconds straddle the line between paranoid political thriller and science fiction classic. You can tell just by watching that short video from Criterion.

So now it’s time to vote:

You have until Wednesday to vote.

Up next, we go into the “Star Wars” bracket and Star Wars (the “New Hope” one) faced off against Alien. Good luck with that one.

Welcome back to everyone who skips the music and movies.

As you may have heard, the Cubs signed free agent third baseman Alex Bregman. With a full n0-trade clause, something that Boston was reportedly unwilling to give him, Bregman should be the Cubs third baseman for the next five seasons.

One of the first things that got mentioned when Bregman was signed was “What’s going to happen to current third baseman Matt Shaw?” But that question is inextricably tied in with the question of “What is going to happen to Nico Hoerner?”

While Shaw filled in admirably at third base last year, pretty much everything thinks his best position is second base. Incumbent second baseman Hoerner only has one year left on his contract before reaching free agency. There had been lots of speculation that the Cubs might try to trade Hoerner for a starting pitcher before losing him to free agency, if they don’t intend to sign him to a extension.

The speculation that Hoerner might get dealt was bubbling under the surface even before the Cubs signed Bregman. But it’s ramped up several degrees since Saturday night. To be clear, most of this speculation is coming from national writers (who need something to talk about) and fans of other teams who would like to acquire Hoerner. Much less of this talk is coming from the North Side.

But the talk got loud enough that Sahadev Sharma in The Athleticwrote a piece on how stupid it would be to trade Hoerner. (sub. req.) The Cubs are in win-now mode and trading away Hoerner would be counter to those goals. Sharma adds that there is no indication that the Cubs are trying to trade Hoerner. If teams call, they’ll listen, but it would have to be too good an offer to turn down for them to even consider trading Hoerner, he believes.

But should the Cubs consider trading Hoerner? The argument against it is strong. According to Baseball Reference, Hoerner had the highest Wins Above Replacement total of anyone on the Cubs last year. According to Fangraphs, he was second to Pete Crow-Armstrong. Hoerner was a Gold Glove second baseman who finished second in batting average in the National League at .297. Hoerner has elite contact skills. Only the Padres’ Luis Arrárez and the Athletics’ Jacob Wilson struck out in a lower percentage of at-bats last year than Hoerner, among qualified hitters. He’s also a good base runner with 29 steals in 35 attempts last year and 31 in 37 the year before.

So why would the Cubs even consider trading Nico Hoerner? With the acquisition of Bregman, Shaw doesn’t have a position anymore. Shaw had a rough start to his rookie campaign and even got sent back down to Iowa early on. But he turned things on after the All-Star Break, hitting .258/.317/.522 in the second half. He was also a surprisingly good defensive third baseman, even though he was playing out of position. With the acquisition of Bregman, the second-year Shaw no longer has a position. That is, unless the Cubs open one up for him by trading Hoerner.

The other, and probably the biggest, reason that the Cubs might trade Hoerner is that he can become a free agent at the end of 2026. Hoerner is entering his age-29 season and a great deal of his value is tied up in that Gold Glove defense. If he loses a step after turning 30 (and a lot of players do), then he may not be a player that the Cubs would want to tie up for four or five years after this one. Especially since the Cubs have Matt Shaw under team control for the next five seasons.

Trading Hoerner now would be selling high. Yes, his value would be undercut somewhat by the fact that he only has one year of control left, but he’s coming off the best season of his career. There are several contenders looking for infielders. The Mariners have long been rumored to be interested in trading for Hoerner and they badly need a second baseman. The Yankees don’t need a second baseman, but they need a shortstop and Hoerner can play there. And the Red Sox are short an infielder at the moment.

Before the Cubs acquired Edward Cabrera, the main idea was that if the Cubs were to sign a third baseman like Bregman, they might be interested in dealing Hoerner for a starting pitcher. The Cubs need for a starter is less now, but as we learned last year, you can never have too much quality starting pitching. Another option, should the Cubs decide to trade Hoerner, is to get prospects to build the farm system back up. They might not get an elite prospect back, but they could get someone at least as good as Owen Caissie back for Hoerner.

Of course, the Cubs don’t have to trade Hoerner. Shaw can serve as a bench player for 2026, getting in at-bats to give the four infield starters days off. The Cubs starters played way too many games last year because of a weak bench. Then the Cubs can either let Hoerner walk as a free agent or sign him to an extension and trade Shaw, either this winter or next. Should Shaw have a strong season as a bench player in 2026, he might be extremely valuable on the trade market next winter. (Of course, the flipside of that is that if he has a poor season, his value will tank.)

So what do you think the Cubs should do with Nico Hoerner?

By the way, the “sign him to an extension, trade Matt Shaw” option doesn’t necessarily mean that you want to trade Shaw this year. You could keep him as a bench player for 2026. But voting that option does mean that you think Shaw should have to be dealt before the start of the 2027 season.

Thanks for stopping by tonight. We’re so glad you decided to stop in. Please get home safely. Let us call a ride for you if necessary. Stay warm out there. Recycle any cans and bottles. Tip your waitstaff. And join us again tomorrow evening for more BCB After Dark.