MBB Preview: Mizzou looks to extend win streak against the Ole Miss Rebels

Game Info

When | 5:00 p.m. CT

Where | The Sandy & John Black Pavilion; Oxford, Ms.

TV | SEC Network

Radio | Tiger Radio Network

Twitter | @MizzouHoops

ESPN win probability | 44.0% chance

The Starters

Mizzou (12-3, 2-0 SEC)

G: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 11.3 PPG)

G: Jayden Stone (GR, 13.6 PPG)

F: Jacob Crews (GR, 13.1 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.2 PPG)

C: Shawn Phillips, Jr. (SR, 7.7 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Trent Pierce (JR, 7.5 PPG)

Ole Miss (8-7, 0-2 SEC)

F: James Scott (JR, 4.7 PPG)

F: Malik Dia (SR, 14.7 PPG)

G: Ilias Kamardine (SR, 11.3 PPG)

G: Eduardo Klafke (SO, 3.1 PPG)

G: Patton Pinkins (FR, 8.5 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: AJ Storr (SR, 11.3 PPG)

Note: these starting lineups are projected.

Get to know Ole Miss: a team in the midst of a rebuild looking for its first conference win

Unlike its football counterpart, the Ole Miss Rebels basketball team has slim playoff hopes. After a Sweet Sixteen run last season, the team’s deepest run in two decades, Head Coach Chris Beard had to formulate a brand new team with two returning vets: Malik Dia and Eduardo Klafke. The Rebs were middle of the pack for some media in pre-season rankings but a feeble non-conference record has not paired well with an 0-2 conference start.

Dia has remained the standout of the Ole Miss team averaging nearly 15 points per game. The 21-year-old is also balancing about 7 rebounds per game alongside his offensive prowess. Outside of Dia, a load of production for the Rebels was lost, I’m talking the top five players in minutes played are gone and only three players remained on the roster when the season concluded. Behind Dia, the three top scorers are new additions AJ Storr, Ilias Kamardine and Patton Pinkins.

Storr began at St. John’s before moving to Kansas and ultimately Ole Miss, a classic example of what the portal and NIL has become. In our season preview he was described as a “talented but enigmatic scorer, rediscovering his form after inconsistency derailed him at Kansas.” Kamardine hails from across the pond in France where he spent playing professional ball with JDA Dijon, averaging eight points over 18.2 minutes per game. The guard also has the MVP trophy from the FIBA U20 Eurobasket on his list of accolades. Meanwhile, Pinkins is a freshman from Tennessee shooting over 50 percent from the field and north of 46 percent from beyond the arc. Overall, Beard added eight transfers, three freshman as well as a French signee.

To start conference play, the Rebels fell to the Oklahoma Sooners by 16 points on the road. The freshman Pinkins led the way with a season-high 25 points but the offense wasn’t able to be explosive enough to claw its way back in the game. The squad then dropped its second game to the No. 15 Arkansas Razorbacks at home, but not without a fight. A second half surge of 55 points brought the team some life and the defense kept its heart beating, but ultimately the Rebels weren’t able to find the missing piece to a victory.

The Rebels are hungry for a win in conference play. Last year, they opened conference play 3-0 but now they’re staring down the barrel of a 0-3 start. A three game winless streak would be the first of its kind since the 2012 season.

3 Keys to the Game

Unity

Something in the air shifted between December 22nd and January 3rd. A colossal loss against Illinois seemed to have dampened the spirts of the Mizzou faithful; however, Dennis Gates and crew put it all to rest against the defending national champion Florida Gators.

“I want to publicly thank our guys for allowing me to be the biggest asshole known to man in the last week,” said Gates. “And they took ownership and established their own identity without me being able to say a word, at the end of the day.”

One of the main takeaways postgame against Kentucky was the new identity of this Mizzou bunch. Now, the return of Jayden Stone and Trent Pierce aid in the breath of fresh air, but this team looks solid on the floor and have powered themselves to its best SEC start in program history. One image sticks in my mind as I see this team moving forward to March and I think they will continue to establish themselves against Ole Miss.

The need to play a full forty minutes

While the record might not be the best reflection of the fight in Ole Miss, it still prevails, and anything is possible when it comes to conference games. As mentioned earlier, the Rebels are a scrappy, aggressive team that is able to hold themselves against any opponent. Case in point: Arkansas. The nationally ranked Hogs marched to Oxford in hopes of a victory and were quickly taken aback by a 55-point second half, the second-most in a single half in Beard’s tenure, that had the Rebels charging right back in. Offensively, the Rebels aren’t all that strong, but in their latest outing they had five players reach double digits.

Something Mizzou hasn’t been able to do consistently this season is remain locked in for an entire forty minutes. Maybe it’s a bit hypercritical of me, but it appears the Tigers have shown energy in scoring bursts but struggle to sustain intensity across both halves. The team is capable of overwhelming opponents on runs and playing with emotion, as it did after the Trent Burns buzzer beater. On the flip side, they’ve let intensity overpower them after big moments from opposition and let games slip away.

Ole Miss will take any chance they can get and the Tigers will need to be ready to go from the jump.

Limit the turnovers

It’s one of the earliest things you’re taught in Park District basketball: protect the basketball. It’s crucial for Mizzou to follow this principal in road to its third victory. Currently, seven Tigers average one turnover or more per game and that will need to be limited Saturday afternoon.

Ole Miss forces opponents to turn the ball over about 12 times per game, alongside averaging 7.3 steals. Beard has built effective defensive teams over the years, his bread and butter, and even with major roster turnover, the Rebels have become a defensive force to be reckoned with. According to KenPom, Ole Miss has the 68th best defensive efficiency compared to Mizzou’s spot at 99. Handing the Rebels the ball for free only ends in a downward spiral and a huge deficit to climb.

Currently, Mizzou averages 82.5 points per game while Ole Miss only allows 69.6. It will be Mizzou offense versus Ole Miss defense. Another reason to thank Stone for be being healthy for conference play.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Mizzou 79 – Ole Miss 68

Keep the good times rolling, right? The Tigers are carrying massive momentum alongside the best SEC start since joining the conference in 2012. They have a prime opportunity to expand that in facing an undefined Ole Miss roster. I think Ole Miss hangs around in the second half but Mizzou overpowers them offensively and seals the game away late.