BYU heads to Salt Lake City Saturday for the first of two BYU-Utah matchups this month. Both teams are on opposite trajectories this season; BYU is one of the top teams in the country while Utah through 15 games looks like they could finish last in the Big 12. Despite that, this isn’t a spot […]
BYU heads to Salt Lake City Saturday for the first of two BYU-Utah matchups this month. Both teams are on opposite trajectories this season; BYU is one of the top teams in the country while Utah through 15 games looks like they could finish last in the Big 12. Despite that, this isn’t a spot BYU can overlook. BYU has lost their last two games in the Huntsman Center, and although Utah is 8-7, they’ve been competitive in most of their losses.
The games tips off Saturday night at 8pm MT on ESPN.
BYU and Utah by the Numbers
Utah KenPom: 129
NET ranking: 143
Record: 8-7
Best Wins: Ole Miss (N), Cal Baptist (H)
Losses: Cal Poly (H), Grand Canyon (N), Cal (A), MS State (N), Washington (A), Arizona (H), Colorado (A)
AP Ranking: N/A
BYU KenPom: 10
NET Ranking: 9
Record: 14-1
AP Ranking: 9
KenPom Prediction: BYU 88, Utah 75 — BYU 89% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -14.5
Point Total: 166.5
Utah Overview
Alex Jensen’s first season in SLC has been rocky. Utah is the lowest rated Big 12 team in both KenPom and NET by a wide margin. Utah has some good individual scorers, but they have really struggled on defense. The Utes don’t have a rim protector inside and lack perimeter length and strength, and consequently they’ve struggled to slow down teams. Utah doesn’t force many turnovers, can be susceptible on the glass, don’t protect the rim well, and allow teams to get to the rim and breakdown their defense. On paper they are the worst defensive team by a wide margin in the Big 12.
Offensively, Utah has some good pieces which has allowed them to stay in games. Terrence Brown and Dom McHenry take on the brunt of the scoring load, and returnee Keanu Dawes is their top player in the frontcourt. Terrence Brown is a ball-dominant guard who will attack the paint and try to breakdown a defense to either finish at the rim or kickout to open shooters.
Even with Utah’s porous defense, they have largely remained competitive in their losses. Their largest loss of the season was last Saturday at home to Arizona (19 points). Defense has often faltered them late in games, including their most recent loss to Colorado where the Buffs pulled away at the end to win by 12.
Players to Watch
Terrence Brown, Guard — Listed at 6-foot-3 and 175 pounds, Brown is the clear focal point of Utah’s offense. After averaging 20.6 ppg last year at Fairleigh Dickinson, Brown now leads the Utes with 21.4 ppg and 4 assists per game. Brown is a ball dominant guard whose games relies on getting to the paint. He averages 8 free throw attempts per game and the majority of his field goal attempts are in the arc. He averages 3.6 three-point attempts per game and shoots 29.6% from distance. Brown is a high volume shooter and can score in bunches, but he also has inefficient nights. In Wednesday’s loss to Colorado he shot just 5-17 (29%) from the field. BYU will likely put Kennard Davis and AJ Dybantsa on Brown to disrupt him with their length and strength.
Dom McHenry, Guard — Brown’s backcourt mate is listed at 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds. McHenry averages 18.5 points and is more of a three-point shooting threat than Brown. McHenry averages 6.3 3PA per game and shoots 42.6%. McHenry doesn’t get to the line very much versus good opponents and averages only 1.5 assists, but he is a dangerous shooter who BYU will need to key in on.
Keanu Dawes, Forward — Utah’s most notable returnee averages 12.9 points and leads the team with 9.1 rebounds per game. Dawes shoots and incredible 79% on twos and is a strong forward at 6-foot-9 who will occasionally play the five. Dawes isn’t afraid to shoot the three, but is just 8-40 (20%) this year from distance. If AJ is guarding Dawes, I suspect BYU would feed Dawes in the post to get physical with AJ and try to get him in foul trouble.
Prediction
Utah is not a good team, but they have enough firepower on offense to keep within striking distance if BYU comes out flat. All the jokes of Utah’s poor fan support are well documented and there will be a healthy amount of blue in the arena, but the Utes should get a good student section turnout and the majority of the lower bowl should be red.
This game has a lot of the makings of a blow out. Utah doesn’t defend the paint well and their guards, so AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright should be able to live at the rim. Brown and McHenry are dangerous scorers, but they are small and BYU could be able to bully them around some. BYU just has so much more length than Utah, which should manifest itself on both ends of the floor. BYU’s tandem of Keba Keita and Abdullah Ahmed for 40 minutes should also be able to make things difficult for Brown when he does get to the rim.
The first thing that Utah needs to pull an upset is to hope BYU reverts to old habits of starting off with a poor start. The crowd and team need belief, and if McHenry cans a few threes and BYU starts like 0-4 from three, Utah can get the crowd into it early. Utah then needs the three-point line to be the equalizer. They need to have their best shooting performance of the season and hope Richie shoots like 1-8 from three and BYU struggles to knock down open shots.
The cliche is weird things happen in rivalry games, but I think Kevin Young is motivated to beat Utah in the Huntsman Center and BYU comes out with a comfortable win.
Prediction: BYU 90, Utah 68
Category: General Sports
