The Tigers and their ace were unable to agree by Thursday’s 8 p.m. ET deadline and seem bound for arbitration.
Thursday’s 8 p.m. ET deadline to reach contracts with arbitration eligible players for the 2026 passed with the Detroit Tigers in agreement with everyone but ace Tarik Skubal. The two paries can continue to negotiate prior to an arbitration hearing, but for now they seem set to let an arbitrator decide the ace lefty’s salary for 2026.
Of the remaining players, Casey Mize will make the most, earning $6.15M for 2026, while Riley Greene will make the most among position players, earning $5M in 2026. Zach McKinstry and Will Vest are the two players seeing the biggest salary jump with Vest seeing a bump of $2.6M and McKinstry sees a bump of $3.55M for 2026.
As for the two-time AL Cy Young award winner, Skubal’s representative, agent Scott Boras, has filed seeking $32M for 2026, while the Tigers offered $19M. Per Evan Drellich of The Athletic, the arbitrator will select between those two figures if there is no further negotiation, setting up a real battle with the two parties so far apart on a number.
Juan Soto’s $31M in his final year before free agency is currently the largest amount ever given to a player in arbitration. Per Jeff Passan, who has this unlocked piece on the whole story, David Price received $19.75M in 2015, which remains the highest arbitration number ever awarded to a pitcher. Pretty hard to believe Skubal is going to get less than a pitcher he’s signficantly better than did a decade ago. The Tigers may have shot themselves in the foot by not proposing a more reasonable number for the arbitrator to award, but negotiatons may continue before it comes to a hearing.
Most arbitration estimates have him likely to get $22-23M. For those wondering if the lack of an agreement might mean a long-term extension is still on the table, it’s not impossible but the lack of an arbitration agreement on its own doesn’t mean anything at all. Assuming Skubal is going to free agency, the Tigers have no incentive not to play hardball over the arb figure, and they’ve already taken that tack with players throughout Scott Harris’ time running the team. Famously they haggled with Mize over a difference of $25,000 heading into the 2024 season before conceding in exchange for locking in his $3.1M figure for 2025 in advance.
It would be very odd to see the Tigers go big on an extension offer now after not making any serious bids for a long-term deal after the 2023 and 2024 campaigns, and then lowballing him in exchanging numbers prior to Thursday night’s cutoff. Ultimately, for the situation to change would likely require Skubal himself deciding he wants to stay and giving the Tigers a discount over the $350M or more he’ll likely command next year, and the Ilitch family recognizing that it’s time to get involved and structure a deal that fits into their plans over the next decade. None of those things seem at all likely to happen. For now, the Tigers playing Skubal in 2026 and letting him walk for a compensation pick in the 2027 draft still seems the most likely outcome.
What should also be noted looking at the arb salaries is that the remaining players on the roster are bound to get a lot more expensive beyond 2026. You can expect all the numbers listed by Tigers PR to roughly double for players returning in 2027. Of course, that’s a pretty short list of players involved as well, so it shouldn’t be too impactful on the payroll.
The Tigers do have roughly $83M set to come off the books after the 2026 season in Skubal, assiming his $22.5M in arbitration estimates, Mize, Jack Flaherty, Gleyber Torres, Jake Rogers, and Kenley Jansen. Javier Báez and his $24M per year will be off the books following the 2027 season. Obviously they’ll have to replace all that talent to keep themselves in position to reach the playoffs.
Currently, the Tigers payroll is estimated at $164M by FanGraphs Roster Resource, which is right about league average based on 2025 payrolls.
Category: General Sports
