Ten bold Royals predictions for 2026

It is the beginning of the year, and the time to make fun predictions on what might happen in 2026. You can see how off I was with my predictions last year. But these are bold predictions. I mean how, much fun would it be to predict the Royals are going to acquire Adam Frazier again in July? Everyone knows that is going to happen! So, these are probably long shots. But if they happen, totally give me all the credit.

MLB takes over Royals broadcasts

Main Street Sports Group, which owns FanDuel Sports Kansas City, as well as eight other regional sports networks that air MLB games, is in financial distress. They missed a payment to the Cardinals, and are attempting to renegotiate fees with other clubs. Their escape hatch seems to be a potential sale to international sports platform DAZN, but the landscape of sports on television has shifted to the point where the old model seems to be financially unsustainable.

MLB has already taken over the broadcasts of six clubs, with the Nationals likely to join the fold soon. I will predict MLB takes over the broadcasts of the Royals and eight other clubs in 2026. What this will mean is that you will watch Royals games on something like “Royals TV”, available through your local cable or satellite provider, or via streaming on an app similar to the FanDuel Sports app and likely at the same price point.

But I would expect blackout restrictions are lifted, as there is no need to maintain exclusivity for the channel, at least this year. This also likely means a hit to revenue for the Royals and other clubs as MLB will not fees like Main Street Sports did, instead requiring clubs to recoup revenue from the channel itself. It will be a temporary solution, as ESPN acquired rights from MLB to begin broadcasting games in 2027, but there could be a major shakeup in how MLB games are broadcast on TV.

The Royals acquire Jarren Duran from the Red Sox

I think Boston is more of a motivated seller on Duran than they let on. He’s an intense guy who will run through a wall for you, but they have a glut of outfielders, and it may be it is time for a change of scenery for the young All-Star outfielder. Duran does have some poor road numbers and against lefties last year that are a bit of a red flag, although he hit just fine away from Fenway Park in 2024. Still, he is young and under club control for three years, a terrific defender, and would immediately make the offense better. So let me predict a big three-team deal gets done:

• Kansas City gets Jarren Duran
• Boston gets Ketel Marte
• Arizona gets Triston Casas, Noah Cameron, and Blake Mitchell

The Royals get the outfield bat they need, Boston gets the offensive-minded second baseman they covet, and the Diamondbacks upgrade at first base and in their rotation, while picking up a prospect and moving Marte before he gets 10-5 rights to block a trade. Losing Cameron would be a big blow, but there are some signs of regression for him, and the Royals have the starting pitching depth to withstand a loss.

It’s a lot of moving parts to make a three-team trade, and all three of these teams seem to be overvaluing their assets a bit. But let’s be bold! It’s no fun to predict the Royals acquire, say, Jack Suwinski for Daniel Lynch. Go big or go home!

The Royals will have a six-man rotation for some of the year

The Royals signed Seth Lugo to a two-year, $46 million deal last summer, and he immediately struggled, giving up 28 runs in 26.2 innings in six starts before the team shut him down in September with a lower back strain. It marked the second year in a row that Lugo had struggled in the second half. In his two seasons with the Royals, his split has been rather stark:

• Lugo 2024-25 before the ASG: 37 G, 228 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 2.56 ERA
• Lugo 2024-25 after the ASG: 22 G, 124 IP, 7.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 5.15 ERA

Lugo is 35 years old, and the only season he has thrown more than 150 innings was in 2024, when he finished second in the American League with 206.2 innings. The Royals also have 34-year-old Michael Wacha, and Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, who are coming off injuries. They have developed some starting pitching depth, so I would expect them to go with a six-man rotation at times – perhaps not for the entire year, but at least by mid-season in an effort to keep total innings down. Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, and Bailey Falter could all be called upon to make spot starts as the Royals try to protect the strength of their roster.

Vinnie Pasquantino makes his first All-Star Game

Vinnie finished with a career-high 32 home runs last year, third-most among first basemen, and he was sixth among all hitters with 113 RBI. He played in a career-high 160 games and was nominated for the All-MLB team. So I will predict this is the year Vinnie is recognized as one of the top first basemen in the league with his first All-Star nod.

This will be an uphill battle – the AL already has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays at first, as well as rookie phenom Nick Kurtz of the Athletics, plus Peter Alonso is jumping to the AL with a new deal in Baltimore. But I think Vinnie can improve his walk numbers as pitchers respect him more, and he has been rather BABIP-unlucky the last few seasons. I’ll predict a new level of performance for Vinnie, and he’ll be at the All-Star Game in Philadelphia this July with Bobby Witt Jr. and Cole Ragans.

Jac Caglianone hits 30 home runs

Jac’s rookie season was a major head-scratcher. The concern was that he would struggle with breaking balls and chase too much. His chase rate wasn’t great, but it wasn’t as awful as you would think for a player with his poor numbers, and his strikeout numbers were fine. He hit the ball hard, the underlying metrics suggested a lot of bad luck (a .172 BABIP?!?!?!), and yet he put up one of the worst first-year seasons by an outfielder since World War II.

The problem was that he pounded the ball into the ground. But with 232 plate appearances and an offseason under his belt, I’m confident Caglianone can make some adjustments and elevate the ball next year. And if he can elevate, the ball is going to go a really long way. The Royals hired two new assistant coaches – Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames – and it’s probably safe to say their jobs, and the job of hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, hinge on developing Caglianone and rookie catcher Carter Jensen.

The bullpen becomes a problem again

The Royals had bullpen woes early in 2024, but were able to make some midseason adjustments and turned the unit into a strength by the postseason. The bullpen had a 3.63 ERA last year, seventh-best in MLB. Carlos Estévez led all of MLB in saves and the Royals were the only team not to lose a game they led going into the ninth inning.

But there are some dark clouds on the horizon. The Royals bullpen outperformed their FIP (4.01) by the third-largest margin in baseball last year. Estévez flirted with trouble in many outings. He and Lucas Erceg had worrying drops in strikeout rates, and were among the worst at missing bats among all relievers. The Royals did bolster the pen by adding Matt Strahm from the Phillies and Nick Mears from the Brewers, and that could soften the blow of other regression. But keep an eye on early bullpen issues, which could necessitate some mid-season moves.

The Royals have two pitchers on top 50 prospect lists

The Carolina League proved to be no match for left-hander David Shields, who posted a 2.01 ERA in 18 starts, with an eyepopping strikeout-to-walk ratio of 81-to-15 in 71.2 innings. Oh and by the way, he was 18 years old, the age some guys are spending their senior year of high school. Right-hander Kendry Chourio is even younger, having just turned 18 in October, and he held his own in six starts in the Carolina League, strikeout out 24 in 22.2 innings, with just four walks.

The duo appear to be the most promising pair of pitching prospects in the organization since Yordano Ventura. While the Royals’ farm system is generally ranked near the bottom of baseball, it has made some steady progress, and Shields and Chourio could be the feather in their cap that brings more respect on prospect lists. There are no guarantees of course (TINSTAAP!)

The Royals win the Central Division

The Guardians won the division last year by massively outperforming their run differential and beating up on the White Sox. They have done nothing of note this offseason, and could end up trading All-Star outfielder Steven Kwan before the season begins. They seem to be able to remain competitive by giving random minor leaguers a chance and sprinkling them with pixie dust. But I think their luck runs out this year and they end up with a losing record.

The team that the Royals need to overcome in the division is the Detroit Tigers. They have a good young core, have made the playoffs in the last two seasons, and have a smart front office. But they have been rather quiet this offseason as well, and there are rumors they could trade ace pitcher Tarik Skubal. My guess is they hold onto him and the Royals and Tigers engage in a thrilling divisional race this summer. The Royals have better starting pitching depth, but the Tigers could get a boost from top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark. I’ll predict the Royals win 90 games and take the division by one game over the Tigers, but ultimately fall in the ALDS again.

Carter Jensen finishes second in Rookie of the Year voting

Jensen was called up last September and flat out raked, hitting .300/.391/.550 with three home runs in 20 games, including this mammoth shot in Sacramento. Jensen exhibits a mature approach to the plate, the “identify good pitches and rake” philosophy that Zumwalt advocates. He should get a chance to play behind the plate and help Salvador Perez transition to a DH role more.

Next year’s rookie crop could be quite impressive with postseason star Trey Yesavage of the Blue Jays retaining rookie status, and prospects like McGonigle, Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter of the Guardians, and Walker Jenkins of the Twins all likely to contribute, not to mention Japanese free agents like Munetaka Murakami of the White Sox and Tatsuya Imai of the Astros joining the league. But I’ll predict that Jensen finishes second in Rookie of the Year voting (let’s say, behind Murakami) with a line of something like .260/.345/.440 and 18 home runs, terrific numbers for a first-year catcher.

Kansas City announces a Washington Square Park ballpark

I predicted this last year! At this point, I could be predicting it for years to come! The Chiefs are moving to Kansas, but there appears to be little appetite for extending even more STAR bonds for the Royals. Last year’s offer has expired, and although the Kansas Legislature could reauthorize them this year, it is expected to be a short, narrowly-focused legislative session so that Senate President Ty Masterson can campaign for governor.

The loss of the Chiefs should motivate the Missouri Legislature to get going, and I suspect the city of Kansas City finds a way to work with them on a financial package that bypasses a public vote and results in a new stadium. East Village could still be on the table, but there are some logistical issues with highway access and concerns from the city that a ballpark district there would cannibalize the Power and Light District (although isn’t Washington Square Park further away?). Maybe 18th and Paseo jumps into the picture? And I certainly wouldn’t rule out North Kansas City. But Washington Square Park is my stab in the dark. It still requires a lot of moving parts, but maybe we will finally get a resolution to the ballpark situation this year.