Underwood’s Illini poised for big January

January means the official start of conference play. The Illini are 11-3, for the fourth time in the last five seasons and the third consecutive season. Over the previous four seasons, the January record is 21-11; last season, it was 4-4. The best January in the Underwood era was a 7-0 mark in 2019-20. The Illini have eight games scheduled for January and are already 1-0 after the win at Penn State.

The rest of this month’s schedule is relatively thin. Let’s take a look.

Looking at the next seven games

Jan. 8 vs. Rutgers: ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Illinois a 96.8% chance of winning. Rutgers is a gritty bunch and has played tough against teams like Notre Dame, losing by five, and Ohio State by seven. They have two players averaging in double figures, with F Dylan Grant 14.4 and F Tariq Francis 13.9. As a team, Rutgers shoots 31.9% from 3-point range. They average 39.6 boards and 6.6 steals per game. The Illini are clearly the more talented team, and they will have a decisive height advantage.

Jan. 11 at Iowa:

ESPN’s matchup rating gives the Illini a 55.3% chance to win. Brad Underwood is 3-3 in Iowa City and is 15-9 vs. Iowa during his tenure at Illinois (including tournament games). Iowa’s two losses were to No. 7 Michigan State and No. 4 Iowa State. Illinois will have a height advantage and better overall depth. Iowa’s only double-digit scorer is Bennett Stirtz, 17.8 PPG, along with dishing out 5.2 assists per game, had 27 in Iowa’s last game vs. UCLA with 5 assists and shot 4-6 from three-point range.

Jan. 14 at Northwestern:

This is another game where ESPN gives Illinois a considerable advantage, with an 88.75% chance of winning. Northwestern has two forwards who together average 38 PPG. Nick Martinelli, who is shooting 58.2% from the field and 50% from the 3-point arc, averages 23 (tied for 3rd best in the country), and he is also the team’s leading rebounder at 6.5 RPG. The other forward is Arrinten Page, who averages 15 PPG. Guard Jayden Reid scores 11.6 PPG and dishes out 5.4 APG. Northwestern does run pretty deep and can throw fresh bodies onto the court. But the Illini have height and a more talented bench.

Jan. 17 vs. Minnesota:

Like Northwestern and Rutgers, Minnesota is a massive underdog. ESPN has Illinois at a 92% chance of winning. The Gophers have a top-10 scorer nationally and the second-best scorer in the Big Ten: Cade Tyson, averaging 22.1 PPG on 52.9 FG shooting and 39.7% from three. Illinois will be challenged on the boards but should prevail in the end.

Jan. 21 vs. Maryland:

Just like Minnesota, ESPN has the Illini at a 92% win probability. That could change if they get back leading scorer Pharell Payne. The 6-foot-9 senior was averaging 17.5 PPG when he went down with an injury for the second time this season. They are another team that can challenge the Illini on the glass. But again, without the main cog in the machine the advantage goes to Illinois.

Jan. 24 at Purdue:

NEWS FLASH: ESPN Purdue has a 70.9% chance of beating Illinois. This should come as NO surprise to anyone. Guard Braden Smith is the nation’s Leader in assists at 9.6 per game. They have two of the top 5 rebounders in the B1G with Trey Kaufman-Renn at 9.8 per game and Oscar Cluff at 8.8 boards per contest, on the road at Mackey. It will take a total game effort to win.

Jan. 29 vs. Washington:

The Illini have an 88.8% chance of winning according to ESPN. Washington can put points on the board and rebound well, and match Illinois in height. As a team, they shoot the ball at 45.3% and 31.9% from beyond the arc. They only go about seven to eight deep, so the Illini should have the advantage there, plus the game is at the State Farm Center.

Summary

If things track as ESPN’s matchup rating, the Illini could go 7-1 in January, which would make them 17-4. Considering the balance of the schedule, this could put Illinois in the 4-line discussion for the NCAA Tournament. This will be Illinois’ sixth straight year in the Big Dance. That would be the second-most consecutive appearances by an Illini basketball team. Twice, the Illini have had eight straight appearances 1983-90 and 2000-07.