Canadiens Defensive Impact of Guhle Return To Play

There was some good news on the Montreal Canadiens health front, as injured defenceman Kaiden Guhle took part in practice, […]

Canadiens Defensive Impact of Guhle Return To Play
Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

There was some good news on the Montreal Canadiens health front, as injured defenceman Kaiden Guhle took part in practice, and is expected to return to the lineup in the near future.

According to Eric Engels, Guhle could end up playing as early as Wednesday, when the Habs face the Calgary Flames at the Bell Centre.

Finding A Spot For Guhle

The Canadiens currently have seven defenceman on their roster, which means they’ll likely send at least one player to the AHL once Guhle is cleared to play.

The most logical choice from an experience standpoint would see rookie Adam Engstrom return to the Laval Rocket, but that doesn’t necessarily align with his performance relative to the other blue liners on the team.

When evaluating the relative expected goals (xGF% Rel.), it’s quite clear that Engstrom has done a good job controlling the play whenever he’s on the ice.

(Relative statistics compare a player’s on-ice results to their team’s statistics when they’re no longer on the ice.)

Unsurprisingly, Hutson tops the list, however, it should be noted that Engstrom currently sits in second place, with Mike Matheson in tow. On the negative side of things, we have Arber Xhekaj, Alexandre Carrier, Noah Dobson, and Jayden Struble.

Struble’s numbers are particularly notable, since he spent a fair amount of his season playing alongside Hutson, to the tune of 280 minutes at 5v5.

His stats should be much better, there’s no doubt about it. Though it’s fair to say he usually plays better on the third pairing, rather than in the top four, which was the case when he played with Hutson.

Montreal Canadiens Left And Right Handed Defencemen

The other factor we must consider is how well Hutson has performed while playing on his natural side, the left.

He’s quickly becoming one of the most dominant defencemen in the NHL, and currently sits third in blue line scoring, with an impressive seven goals and 35 assists in 42 games. He trails only Cale Makar (47 points) and Zach Werenski (44 points), and he’s only scratching the surface of his true potential.

It would be a shame to force him to return to the right, even if we know he can produce perfectly acceptable results in that situation.

With that in mind, seeing as Dobson and Carrier are the only right-handed defencemen in the lineup, the Canadiens may want to revisit their pairings.

Matheson and Dobson absorb a ridiculous amount of ice time, and though they started the season by controlling the play, that’s no longer the case. As it stands, they’re controlling roughly 45% of the shots, and less than 42% of the high-danger chances.

A pairing that features Hutson and Dobson may improve the numbers, while allowing for Kaiden Guhle to re-join the lineup in a situation that doesn’t lead to the most difficult minutes in the lineup right off the bat.

And seeing as Matheson knows how to play on the right, he could serve as a partner for Guhle on the second pairing, leaving Carrier, Xhekaj, and Struble to complete the third pairing, with Engstrom returned to the AHL.

The other interesting option would see Matheson play with Hutson, a pairing that has produced very encouraging numbers in the past.

Either way, with Guhle’s return, the Canadiens will have to make at least one important decision regarding their blue line construction.


All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.

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Category: General Sports