6 college basketball men’s Final Four sleepers under the radar right now

It can’t be all No. 1 seeds every year. Last season’s men’s college basketball Final Four featured four top seeds for only the second time since 1979, with fewer early tournament upsets and more heavyweight battles deep into the bracket. It’s trendy to say that the NIL and transfer portal killed Cinderella, but the sample size is still too small to make such bold proclamations.

The Final Four features at least one legitimate sleeper in most years. In 2024, No. 11 seed NC State needed to win the ACC tournament just to get an at-large bid, then danced all the way to the Final Four. In 2023, Florida Atlantic made the Final Four as a No. 9 seed, and UConn won it all as a No. 5 seed. In 2022, North Carolina reached the national championship game as a No. 8 seed. In 2021, No. 11 seed UCLA broke into the Final Four. You get the point.

Here are a few teams that may not get a top-3 seed when the 2026 NCAA tournament field is announced, but have the talent to run all the way to the Final Four.

Virginia Cavaliers

Ryan Odom once pulled off the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history against Tony Bennett’s Virginia team. Now Odom is leading UVA into its post-Bennett era with a star-studded freshmen class that helps put size and shot-making all over the floor. The ultra slow place of the Bennett days has been replaced by a more modern style that has Virginia upping the tempo to almost top-100 levels (after regularly being the 350s under Bennett), chucking threes on 45.5 percent of their field goal attempts (No. 64 in the country), and crashing the offensive glass. The freshman trio of 5’10 guard Chance Mallory, 6’9 Belgian forward Thijs De Ridder, and 7-foot German center Johann Grunloh are all making major contributions and complement each other well. Mallory has been a possession game marvel as an absolute pest defensively despite his lack of size with a nearly five percent steal rate who also has an impressive 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. Grunloh is a monster rim protector with a 12.1 percent block rate, while De Ridder is an efficient scorer all over the floor who is stroking 40 percent of his threes. The offense is already scoring at a near top-15 level, and it feels like there’s more upside here defensively as the freshmen continue to gain experience. This season has shown there’s life after Tony Bennett for UVA hoops.

Saint Louis Billikens

There’s five or six really good teams in the Atlantic-10 right now, and picking any of them as a Final Four sleeper is extremely bold before conference play thins the herd. Let’s have some fun and go with Saint Louis, though. The Billikens have a fascinating statistical profile right now that leans fully into the principles of ‘Morey-ball’ with layups, threes, and a team of very good free throw shooters. Saint Louis’ average two-point field goal attempt is 3.7-feet this season, which is the shortest in the country according to KenPom. That means the Billikens absolutely never take a mid-range shot, preferring to drive to the rim and spam looks from three. Josh Schertz’s team makes 39.3 percent of their threes (No. 5 in the country) while taking 35 percent of their field goals from deep (top-100 in DI). With so much space to cover, the Billikens also make 61.9 percent of their two-pointers, which is No. 8 in the country. Big man Robbie Avila, who rose to prominence two seasons ago with Indiana State, looks awesome this year with 44 percent three-point shooting and 65.8 percent true shooting. Avila plays off some talented guards with Xavier transfer Trey Green and Boston College transfer Dion Brown. Green makes a scorching 45.5 percent of his threes while leading the team in attempts. Brown has ridiculous 72.6 percent true shooting so far. The defense is the biggest issue, but the offense is so fun that I’ll consider Saint Louis the longest of long shots to potentially make a Final Four run.

Illinois Fighting Illini

The Illini are just starting to get healthy and in shape after some nagging injuries throughout the roster, and the talent on this team is Final Four caliber on-paper with some encouraging early results like wins over Texas Tech and Tennessee. The Illini are No. 3 in offensive efficiency right now according to KenPom by avoiding turnovers, pounding the offensive glass, and scoring efficiently inside the arc. Skilled size is the name of the game, and Illinois is loaded in that department. The Ivisic twins are 7-footers who can play on the perimeter with ease, 6’9 freshman David Mirkovic is a skilled four man with a great motor, and 6’6 freshman wing Keaton Wagler has emerged as a potential NBA first-round pick despite only being ranked No. 150 in his recruiting class thanks to his shooting and connective skill set. Add in a tough, veteran two-way point guard in Kylan Boswell and a bully ball wing scorer in Andrej Stojakovic, and Illinois has the horses to beat anyone. They just need to put it all together and get the defense right by March.

Arkansas Razorbacks

The analytics don’t love Arkansas yet ranking only No. 23 in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, but all three losses have come against elite teams (Duke, Houston, and Michigan State) and there aren’t many rosters than can match the talent of John Calipari’s crew on paper. Freshman point guard Darius Acuff is turning into a stud with a rare combination of shooting and playmaking. Acuff may not shoot 44 percent from three all year like he is right now, but having another ball hander has taken pressure off D.J. Wagner and helped him improve his scoring efficiency a bit while cutting down his turnovers significantly. Sophomore wings Karter Knox and Billy Richmond are the swing pieces, and they need to start by being better defensively given their physical tools. Trevon Brazile is a very good play-finisher in the front court who can also space to three-point range, and Malique Ewin and Nick Pringle gives Calipari solid front court depth. Last year’s team went to the Sweet 16 after pulling off a big upset against St. John’s in round two, and it feels like the offense should be better this year with Acuff at the controls. The defense needs to improve to make a Final Four run possible, but the athletes are in place to make that a possibility.

Kansas Jayhawks

Will Darryn Peterson ever get over his hamstring and cramping issues? Kansas fans have been extremely frustrated so far, but ultimately getting him right for March is the only thing that matters. Peterson is such an incredible talent that it’s totally possible he could be the best player in the NCAA tournament if he gets healthy before the end of the season. We know he has better burst than he’s shown so far by looking at the high school tape, and his shot-making in limited run with Kansas has been exceptional. The Jayhawks’ supporting cast feels a little bit better than expected before the season. Flory Bidunga has an elite mix of length and leaping, and he’s been scoring hyper-efficiently around the basket. The pick-and-roll with him and Peterson has plenty of untapped potential. Melvin Council has had an awesome offensive season to give Kansas a legit secondary handler and shot-maker, and Tre White is still a shooter with plus size on the wing even if his decision-making and defense are frustrating. Kansas needs one of Kohl Rosario or Bryson Tiller to pop, and it would be nice if they could something out of Elmarko Jackson. Still, Peterson is such an outlier talent that can put Kansas on his back if he’s close to 100 percent physically. It’s a long season, and he still has two months before the games really start to count.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Vandy is undefeated and ranked at No. 11 in the latest AP Poll, but the program’s lack of tradition combined with all the heavy hitters in front of them still makes the Commodores a sleeper in my mind. Vanderbilt has a breakout star in sophomore guard Tyler Tanner, who is turning himself into an undeniable first-round draft pick with his improved shooting, turnover avoidance, and takeaway generation despite being listed at just 6-feet, 160 pounds. Tanner is the clear leader of a borderline top-5 offense right now, but he’s not carrying the team by himself. Duke Miles and Frankie Collins are both good drivers and playmakers on offense while getting into the passing lanes defensively. Former North Carolina players Jalen Washington and Tyler Nickel adding shooting (Nickel is hitting 49 percent of his threes) and shot-blocking (Washington has a 8.2 percent block rate) to the front court. Vandy’s metrics are so good on both ends of the floor right now that head coach Mark Byington is starting to look like basketball’s answer to Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti. The Commodores haven’t been past the Sweet 16 since 1965 when the tournament was only 23 teams. It could absolutely happen this year.