Is the new manager bounce real or a myth?

The 'new manager bounce' is a phenomenon where a team has an upturn in form and performance after appointing a new manager.

When a new coach takes over after a sustained period of poor results, it is often noticed that results and player performance improves.

With Manchester United, Chelsea and Celtic sacking their managers in recent days, the clubs will be hoping that a switch of personnel can inspire results.

In the Premier League, the data suggests that clubs do generally see an immediate improvement in results after changing coaches.

Of the last 30 permanent appointments, 18 bettered their team's points tally in their first five league games in charge compared to the previous five under the old boss.

Nine teams declined in that five-game spell and three teams returned the exact same number of points as their previous coach.

While the stats suggest that firing and hiring a new manager is a quick fix, success on the pitch is not simply down to the coach according to former Premier League boss Roy Hodgson

"It is a lottery whether the change is successful," he told The Times in 2025.

"It might turn on missing players returning from injury who then inspire the team and that can coincide with a new manager coming in whose voice and tactics can have a significant effect."

When has the bounce worked and failed?

Of those last 30 hires, Graham Potter has the best record - gaining 11 points from his first five games after replacing Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea.

The Englishman's spell at Chelsea ultimately lasted just six months and 22 Premier League matches, gaining just 17 points from his final 17 league matches.

David Moyes (Everton), Roy Hodgson (Crystal Palace), Unai Emery (Aston Villa) and Ralf Rangnick (Manchester United) all returned 10 points.

Under Rangnick, United picked up two points per game from his first five league games. But his five and a half month spell ended in disappointment with United getting just 27 points from his final 19 league matches, falling 11 points short of Champions League qualification.

Emery posted 10 points from his opening five games after replacing Steven Gerrard at Aston Villa. The Spaniard has subsequently taken Villa into three successive European campaigns and is on course for a fourth at the end of this season.

While Moyes, who replaced Sean Dyche at Everton 12 months ago, has helped return the Toffees to midtable after five seasons of relegation battles.

However, of the last seven permanent appointments in the Premier League, three have failed to win any of their first five league games. Ange Postecoglou managed one draw during his short 39-day stint at Nottingham Forest, while Rob Edwards (Wolves) and Ivan Juric (Southampton) lost all of their opening five matches.

With the hire and fire culture in the Premier League, it might come as a surprise that the two longest-serving managers, Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta, currently occupy the top two spots in the table.

But Hodgson, who managed Blackburn, Fulham, Liverpool, West Brom, Crystal Palace and Watford, said that the new manager bounce does not always equate to long-term success.

"Football matches are won by players and not by managers," he said.

"Whether the change in manager is successful is very much down to the quality of the players and their ability to get the club to the level the hierarchy needs them to be at.

"I'm sorry to say that quite often, especially for those at the wrong end of the table, it doesn't have the desired effect in the long term," he added.

This article is the latest from BBC Sport's Ask Me Anything team.

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