Let’s do this crazy experiment!
As of this writing the Boston Red Sox, winners of four World Series championships since 2004 have not signed a single free agent for the 2026 season. They have, of course, made several trades but, but big question marks remain as we enter January, and Spring Training officially begins next month. So what better thing to do than take a few shots in the dark at the performance of the (in)complete roster Craig Breslow has assembled?
March/April
The Red Sox play 31 games in March/April with four coming in March (3 against the Cincinnati Reds and 2 against the Houston Astros). But overall things look like this: Reds (3), Astros (3), Padres (3), Brewers (3), Cardinals (3), Twins (3), Tigers (4), Yankees (3), Orioles (3), Blue Jays (3).
That’s a very quick start to things with 6 playoff teams from 2025 and really only the Cardinals and Twins as any type of break during an extended “first month” of the season. This breaks down into four pods of games. Reds-Brewers you hope to play .500 or close to it. Even 5-7 knowing the Brewers and Padres are tough but the Astros and Reds are more uncertain. We’ll bank five wins here. Then you want to take five out of six against St. Louis and Minnesota in some combination. Two wins against Detroit if you can avoid Skubal? And then it’s the last group: the AL East. The Orioles are the complicating factor here. They took such a step back in 2025 that it‘s hard to imagine them not recovering – plus they added Pete Alonso and some pitching. But maybe 2024 set our expectations too high? Call it four wins out of nine. That’s 16 wins in the bank heading into…
May
There is no break in the second full month of the season. The Red Sox will face: Astros (3), Tigers (3), Rays (4), Phillies (3), Braves (3), Royals (3), Twins (3), Braves (3), Guardians (3) over 28 games. Only the Tigers, Phillies, and Guardians made the playoffs in 2025 but 6 games against Atlanta, who will probably perform much better than last year, could make that four series against playoff teams plus. The Royals and Astros have playoff aspirations themselves. The Rays are retooling and that might allow for a breath. Take 5 of the first 10, 6 of the next 12, and 3 of the last 2 series. That’s 14 more wins for a .500 month. And there may be room to grow that total against the Braves and Guardians, the latter with a major lack of high-end talent after their perennial All-Start in José Ramírez.
June
The unofficial start of summer is Memorial Day and sure enough June brings a little room for heat. Orioles (3), Yankees (3), Rays (3), Rangers (3), Blue Jays (3), Mariners (3), Rockies (3), Yankees (4), Nationals (2 of a 3-game set). In the first 9 against the AL East it seems like 6 wins is in the cards. The O’s and Yankees should be good but so are the Red Sox! The Rangers have fallen off a lot since their 2023 championship and are kinda running out of steam, though they have talent. The Rockies will be bad. Cal Raleigh won’t be hitting 60 home runs. Go for 7 of 12 here. Split the Yankees (2) and sweep the Nats (2 in June). That’s 17 wins and the Yankees are a good matchup – there is definitely room against both them and the O’s.
July
This month is short due to the All-Star Break and ends with the Trade Deadline so the first few series are key for the front office. This is the month to kick it into gear. Nationals (1), Angels (3), White Sox (3), Mets (3) – ASG – Rays (3), Orioles (3), Blue Jays (3), Athletics (4), Dodgers (1). I’m giving them 8 wins out of the first 10 this month. The Angels are a mess. The White Sox are interesting but probably not significantly better even with their additions, and the Mets are a mess (though if the add Kyle Tucker maybe knock on win down in this group). After the break though it’s a little more in doubt. We really don’t know what the Orioles will be. And the A’s have a mix of promise and disaster. Plus 4 games against the 2025 World Series champs. Call this 7 of 14. That’s 15 wins on the month. Hitting the deadline, we’re at 62 wins ands 48 losses. They started August with 59 wins and 51 losses in 2025. Both times 110 games.
August
August continues with Dodgers (2), White Sox (3), A’s (3), Blue Jays (4), Pirates (3), Diamondbacks (3), Giants (3 – welcome back Raffy Devers!), Marlins (3), Yankees (3), Mariners (1). The plan here is 5 of the first 8, hope to miss the best pitching from Pittsburgh and Arizona and snag 4 wins, and then gets at least 5 of the final 10. That’s another 14. That’s 76 wins on the season heading into…
September
Boston finishes the Mariners (2), Orioles (4), Angels (3), Royals (3), Rangers (3), Rays (3), Guardians (3), Cubs (3). That’s 24 games. Winning 12 of these gets the Sox to 88 wins. Taking 3 of the first 6 is step one. Then 5 of 9. Then 4 of 6 against Tampa and Cleveland. That’s your 12. With 3 games against the Cubs that may or may not matter and you need only 1 win to get to 89 again. Two wins gets you to 90.
There’s obviously a lot we don’t know yet about the Red Sox and the other teams. Final rosters. Injuries. Prospects and signings that just don’t work out in year one (at least). But taking a quick look at the season and it’s not too hard to get back to 89 wins. And a team like, say, the Rangers, could decide to blow it all up if things don’t get off hot. The Blue Jays are a really good team. But will Trey Yesavage be an ace? It’s too early to say. But with just a light touch on every series, this year I’d be comfortable putting 87-88 wins as the floor right at this moment kinda figuring there is one more additional bat.
Category: General Sports
