Re-ranking the CAA after non-conference play

After nearly two months, it’s time to check out of the Non-Conference Hotel and Saloon.

The CAA’s stay, for once, was surprisingly pleasant. It’s always cheap — some days, they even pay you to be here — but the tradeoff tends to be getting stuck with the worst rooms. You can find bigger, wealthier customers like those out of the ACC or the Big East in the penthouse (or at the soulless Players Era Festival, for the foreseeable future). 

And, to make matters worse, those more formidable patrons like to exert their will on the rest. Some might call it bullying, but that’s a pretty antiquated term, if you ask me. All it is, really, is a widely accepted tradition around this time of year to let the big boys pad their egos before they head back home to pick on someone their own size.

This run-around, though, was a little different. Hofstra used its slingshot to send both Pittsburgh and Syracuse tumbling off the top floor. UNC Wilmington didn’t shock anybody, but methodically out-drank 10 of 12 opponents at the hotel bar. Towson and Elon both took their licks but made a name for themselves with a gritty, tough two-month run.

That isn’t even all of it. William & Mary brought a mortar to a six-shooter fight, taking down nine opponents from long range; Charleston survived a number of flesh wounds to take seven of 13, and Northeastern duked it out with the big boys despite losing their most potent weapon just a week into their residency. Even Stony Brook and North Carolina A&T threw a punch or two.

As is the case after most saloon brawls, nobody is all that recognizable. These teams certainly don’t look the same as they did when I ranked them two months ago. Some of them don’t even look like they did two weeks ago! A few of them (Hofstra, namely) look far stronger than I’d anticipated, and several of them (Hampton and Charleston, for two) look weaker. Such is life.

Two months of sample size make these teams much easier (in theory, at least) to stack up against one another. I’ll rank em’, designate an x-factor for conference play, and write a quick paragraph. There’s a quiz at the end, so I recommend reading carefully.

Without further ado…

1. UNCW Seahawks (11-2, no change)

X-Factor: G CJ Luster II

This is admittedly a bit of a cop-out, because how Luster — a prolific 3-point shooter who has yet to make his UNCW debut — returns from injury is very obviously going to play a massive role for the Seahawks in CAA play. He is the answer, though. In UNCW’s two losses, the team shot a combined 10 of 44 from distance, and sits well below the Division-I average with just 30% of points coming from beyond the arc. Luster, who netted 43% from distance in this same conference a year ago, will do wonders for an offense that quietly hasn’t been all that great if they’re not getting to the free-throw line. Through 13 games, the NCAA’s eighth-tallest roster has gotten there plenty, but Luster and fellow injury-ridden guard Johnathan Lamothe should complement that with a dynamic outside attack.

2. Hofstra Pride (9-4, up four spots)

X-Factor: G Biggie Patterson

Hofstra hasn’t been just a one-man show thus far, but junior guard Cruz Davis has certainly been the Kermit the Frog of the operation, if you catch my drift. Davis’s 21.2 points per game ranks 15th in the nation, and his 5.2 assists per game ranks second in the CAA. His supporting cast has been solid, but it’s unlikely Davis can maintain those marks — along with playing a staggering 36.8 minutes per game — throughout the conference gauntlet. Freshman guard Preston Edmead has been good, but his age and relatively inefficient shooting splits make him a prime candidate for a downturn. The senior Patterson, then, is the obvious choice to step in. His 10 points per game in the non-conference is nothing to sneeze at, but if he can go up a level and take some load off Davis and Edmead, Hofstra will be much better-positioned to continue its run through CAA play.

3. Towson Tigers (8-5, down one spot)

X-Factor: G Tyler Schmidt

I could write 10 pages just about Towson, but I’ll simplify it: their offense is terrible. Outside of superstar forward Tyler Tejada and mercurial star guard Dylan Williamson, there’s very little in the way of reliable production here. Towson is the fifth-slowest team in pace, the 10th-worst 3-point shooting team, and has the fourth-lowest assist rate in the country, with a free-throw percentage in the bottom 12%. Of course, these same trends existed last year, before the Tigers ripped off a 16-2 CAA record en route to the top seed in the conference tournament. But this year feels different, with a much shallower, less reliable roster and a 3-point percentage nearly seven points worse than a season ago. Pat Skerry’s team needs someone else to step up, and Schmidt is the ideal candidate, having posted a 38% 3-point clip on considerable volume for Valpo last season. He’s averaging just 4.6 points on a miserable 32% rate from the perimeter, numbers that will both have to rise for TU to live up to its preseason hype.

4. William & Mary Tribe (9-3, up four spots)

X-Factor: The 3-point defense

I hate everything about this. I hate that I’m putting the Tribe at four. I hate that I’m copping out on picking another X-Factor. I hate that I’ve been dead wrong about Brian Earl’s anti-basketball, run-n-gun, track meet style basketball is working, so far. But…

With high-pace basketball comes high risk. Thus far, that risk is paying off. Opponents are shooting just 26.6% from 3, the fifth-best mark for a defense in D-I. The Tribe’s opponents are shooting well below average from the free-throw line, too. The catch? If those percentages trend up, the Tribe are in trouble. And if last year is any indication, they will. My prediction? Water finds its level. But, if William & Mary’s defense is really that good, the Tribe will have no problem proving me wrong. This team goes as the shots do.

5. Charleston Cougars (7-6, down two spots)

X-Factor: F Colby Duggan

It’s hard to know exactly where to begin with the Cougars, who have seen their two most important players (Duggan and transfer guard Mister Dean) play a combined three games. Unfortunately for Charleston, though, Dean’s season is over after a torn ACL in the Paradise Jam. Duggan, who was first-team All-CAA for Campbell a year ago, has yet to debut after a preseason fracture. As a result, the Cougars have struggled. Only one of Charleston’s six losses — a six-point defeat at South Florida — has come in close fashion. They’ve beaten the teams they’re supposed to beat, but the status of Duggan will ultimately decide if the Cougars can pick things up in CAA play. Additionally, look for transfer guard Connor Hickman to heat up and help CofC improve on a 29.7% 3-point clip. Oh, and if 7-foot-2 center Christian Reeves can stay healthy, the Cougars will have a size edge in pretty much every game from here on out.

6. Elon Phoenix (8-5, up six spots)

X-Factor: F Kacper Klaczek

Elon has been great in the non-conference, buoyed by a top-tier offense that’s scoring at an efficient clip. It’s come from transfer guard Chandler Cuthrell, who’s tied with Cruz Davis at 21.2 points per game, as well as a rebounding unit that secures offensive boards at a top-10% rate nationally. However, the Phoenix have no rotation players over 6-foot-8, and their bottom-quartile defensive rebounding numbers indicate some regression is imminent in the rebounding department. Klaczek (6-foot-8) will need to both anchor a defense that ranks near the bottom of D-I and keep opponents off the glass if Elon is to continue its success.

7. Monmouth Hawks (7-6, down two spots)

X-Factor: G Jack Collins

This was an easy one, as Collins has underperformed after receiving preseason All-CAA Second Team honors. He’s averaging just 8.1 points per game — on pace to be the lowest of his four-year career —  on ugly 35/34/65 splits. Others have picked up the slack, though, with Jason Rivera-Torres having a career year and freshman forward Stefanos Spartalis stepping into a lead role. If Collins can get going, Monmouth suddenly has a quality offensive engine to pair with an extremely competent seven-man rotation. And, with every rotational player bar the sharpshooting Justin Ray standing at 6-foot-5 or above, the Hawks have the ability to level up defensively, as well.

8. Stony Brook Seawolves (8-5, up one spot)

X-Factor: G Collin O’Connor

Transfer guards Erik Pratt and Rob Brown III have lived up to (or surpassed) expectations, but the rest of the roster (outside breakout star Robert Goods) is still longing for consistency. It’s shown, too, as the Seawolves have registered nice wins over Columbia and Loyola Marymount but also fallen in blowout fashion to Albany, Marist, and Pacific. Preseason All-CAA honoree Collin O’Connor falls into that inconsistent category, having scored under eight points per game on just 28% from beyond the arc. O’Connor has been hurt since the end of November, and details about his injury are scarce (as they often are at this level), but assuming he returns, he’ll need to step up and take some of the burden off Pratt and Brown III. O’Connor’s abilities as a connector are important, too, and the Seawolves will need to use those to improve on a pretty ugly assist rate.

9. Northeastern Huskies (4-7, down two spots)

X-Factor: G William Kermoury

Northeastern being this high is an indictment of the bottom of the CAA, more than anything. The Huskies lost star guard LA Pratt two games in after a season-ending broken foot, and have dealt with a bevy of injuries elsewhere, too. In response, Northeastern has transformed itself, morphing into a Euro-style team that emphasizes ball movement, free shooting, and pace. When the Huskies play well, they rain 3s; Kermoury is the team’s best shooter and often serves as a barometer for their performance. When he’s on — like he was when he buried six treys against Central Connecticut — the offense tends to flow. When he isn’t, it forces someone else from a very inexperienced cast of characters to step up and score, which is far from a certainty.

10. Hampton Pirates (6-7, down six spots)

X-Factor: Head Coach Ivan Thomas

I’m not selling my Hampton stock just yet. After all, it was only a season ago that the Pirates struggled mightily through this portion of the season before putting it together in the back nine. There’s still a lot of talent on this roster, and even though notable names like Etienne Strotheres, Eunique Rink, and Josh Ogundele look like they’ve taken a step back, there’s plenty of time for Coach Thomas to fix it. It’ll start with ball movement — Hampton ranks in the bottom half in assist rate — but once that goes, like it did last year, look out for the floodgates to open. (Of course, things could very well stay as they are. That’s why they’re ranked ninth.)

11. Drexel Dragons (6-7, up one spots)

X-Factor: F Martin De Laporterie

Like most teams at the bottom of the CAA, there’s nothing in particular that sticks out about Drexel. It again pains me to put them this high, but there is some talent here. Shane Blakeney has had a career year as lead guard, and Kevon Vanderhorst has complemented him well. Victor Panov has been very solid at swing, and local product Josh Reed has looked potential-laden. However, the key here is 7-foot-1 Martin De Laporterie, who’s slowly started to look more comfortable with each passing game. If he can be playable for 20-25 minutes per game in conference play, it’ll unlock a new dimension for the Dragons, particularly defensively.

12. North Carolina A&T Aggies (7-4, up one spot)

X-Factor: Cs KJ Debrick and Will Felton

NC A&T’s record is a bit misleading, as the Aggies have beaten two non-DI teams and four teams in KenPom’s bottom 5%. They do have a couple of talented scorers; the Walkers (Lewis and Lureon, not related) and Trent Middleton Jr. are combining to average nearly 40 points a night. It hasn’t really spurred the offense on, though, with the Aggies ranking in the bottom 15% efficiency-wise. In-conference, those three scorers will need quality center play to grease the team’s gears. That’s where Debrick and Felton come in; neither man played a whole lot in the non-conference, but the size and grind of the CAA should force them into action. If they can combine to anchor the Aggies on both sides of the ball, there’s a trail to legitimacy here.

13. Campbell Fightin’ Camels (6-7, down four spots)

X-Factor: G Cam Gregory

Ranking Campbell here probably isn’t fair. After all, they’ve won six games. To make up for it, I’ll give you an extra few lines of analysis. You deserve that much, Camels fans.

The analytics hate this team. Campbell ranks in the bottom quartile in a bevy of major categories, with the exception of offensive rebounding. They don’t shoot well, they don’t defend the paint, they don’t force turnovers, and their ball movement is putrid. Opponents get to the rim at will, and the Camels don’t have the offensive firepower to respond. 

A major part of the problem has been senior guard Cam Gregory, who was tabbed as the team’s leader heading into the season. After a breakout 2023-24 campaign, Gregory regressed a year ago, seeing a diminished role on a very good Campbell team. In 2025-26, though, Gregory’s role has increased, but he’s regressed again. His scoring numbers are down across the board, and he’s shooting just 25% from range.

Even with Campbell having four players in double figures (Chris Fields Jr., Dovydas Butka, DJ Smith, and Jeremiah Johnson) the team is missing a two-way star to flesh it out. Gregory has the potential to be just that, but he needs to recapture his 2023-24 form. Maybe his last time out against Green Bay (18 points, three assists) can get him going, because the floundering Camels are going to need it. 

Wrapper

I spent a good chunk of this piece trashing the bottom half of the CAA, but as I went team by team, I found it surprisingly easy to talk myself into pretty much every team in the league. To be completely honest, there really could be some legitimately competitive teams there. The conference is ranked 16th in KenPom, seven spots up from a season ago, which gives you an idea of how the analytics view the Coastal: much improved. There won’t be many walkover games this year, which is different than in years past.

At the top, it’s UNCW and everyone else. What they’ve done without Luster and Lamothe has been impressive, even if they’ve played almost nobody. If those two guys integrate smoothly? Look out. It’s hard for me to see anyone taking them down when it counts, although Towson will have a shot in any game due to their sheer defensive prowess and star duo.

Anyways, I’m ready for this ranking to be dead wrong, probably by the first week of January. That’s always part of the fun, and you can’t take yourself too seriously.

Let the games begin!