In the Lab: Right Field BPO

We finish our trip through the diamond in right field. Ironically, the combined output by the two primary right fielders is one of the more disappointing parts of the 2025 season, but these two players might be a biggest part of the hope for growth. Ultimately, where this team goes depends greatly on where these two players go. As always, we aim for neutrality in the lab, so we will focus on the statistical underpinnings of the arguments for and against progression we can arrive on what is most likely to happen.

Before we bust into the numbers, we will remind the studio audience that we are looking at bases per out. Bases per out are calculated by taking the total from total bases, walks, hit by pitches, stolen bases, and dividing that sum by the total number od outs the player recorded. This is also a reminder that all of the numbers were calculated from numbers available at baseball-reference.com. We looked at 39 players roughly defined as right fielders. That includes some primary designated hitters that could be labeled as right fielders because that is the position they played more often when they did play in the field.

Included in the table below are the median for every player with 250 or more plate appearances along with the median for those 39 right fielders. Remember, by sheer definition the median for right fielders will be the 20th ranked right fielder in BPO. That is Michael Tauchman and his .723 BPO. I should note that right field had the highest median BPO of any position on the diamond. That is likely a huge part of how these two players are perceived.

These are obviously underwhelming results leading many to question whether Smith should be handed a job in Spring Training and whether Sanchez should be traded or non-tendered. The answer to that question comes in what we can reasonably expect in the future. This is where we need to separate hype away from actual past production. The hype occurs every Spring Training. “Player A is in the best shape of his life.” “Player B found a hitch in his swing during the winter and is ready to break out.” I don’t want to discount the veracity of those claims, but actual production is more important.

Obviously, Smith has only one season under his belt, so we will need to be a little more creative when we look at him. However, Sanchez has parts of four other seasons where he had at least 300 plate appearances. We can look at those seasons and the total sum to see what we can reasonably expect from him. If he meets expectations would he be a useful piece of the puzzle? Let’s see.

One way to look at it is to look at the overall numbers. It would seem reasonable to expect Sanchez to produce something close to that in 2026. A second way to look at it would be to point that Sanchez outproduced his 2025 numbers in three out of four seasons. Again, it would be reasonable to expect him to do it again in 2026. While we cannot predict what the exact league average will be, we can surmise that his .684 BPO would likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of the league average.

That would make him below the median right fielder and DH, but he would be serving as a fourth outfielder, so he would also be playing some left field. As much as we would like, it is highly unlikely that any team will field each position with an above average player. Having an average offensive player for your bench is actually a win for most teams.

Smith is a lot more difficult to predict. He was bad overall, but that was mostly because of a dreadful second half to the season. Was fatigue a factor? Did the league get a book on him? As always, it is likely a combination of those two factors, but we don’t know which one played more of a role than the other. A player for the Rangers came up with a similar minor league track record (being a lack of seasoning) and was seen as underwhelming in his rookie season. I’ad argue he wasn’t and most observers would agree. Let’s look at what happened from year one to year two. This is Wyatt Langford in his first two major league seasons.

Okay, let’s dispense with one notion immediately. This DOES NOT mean that Smith will produce a .798 BPO next season. After all, he did not produce a .730 BPO last season. What it does mean is that we could project the same growth from year one to year two that Langford saw. That will likely be because he will be much more use to the workload and will make adjustments to what pitchers are doing to him. Notice that Langford saw the biggest gains in walks from year one to year two. The same could be true of Smith even though we are hoping for more power.

Langford’s BPO was nine percent better in 2025 than it was in 2024. Let’s apply the same multiplier to Smith in 2026. His BPO would go from a paltry .615 to a nearly league average rate of .670. That might not seem like much, but when you apply league average offense with well above average fielding you might get close to a three win player. Even using BWAR, we saw Langford go from 3.9 (with similar strong fielding numbers) to a robust 5.6. Again, I don’t anticipate Smith being a five win player, but we could see a similar bump. He saw a 44 percent bump in BWAR between year one and year two. Smith had 1.9 BWAR in 2025, so a similar 44 percent bump would give him 2.7 BWAR. Fangraph’s Outs above average and Fielding Run Value consider him an average fielder, so FWAR is much less bullish on him (1.0 FWAR).

FGDC and Steamer projections do not predict progress for him, but that seems unreasonable. Baseball-reference projects offensive growth. They are projecting a .248/.324/.391 slash line with 11 home runs. That is said to occur in 447 plate appearances as they are predicting a time share between Smith, Sanchez, and perhaps even Zach Cole. Obviously, stat systems will never completely agree, so it comes down to what is reasonable. It is reasonable to expect growth from both players. Neither are projected to be stars, but they are projected to be better and that is a significant part of the Astros plan for a better offense in 2026.