Who is stealing bases, who isn’t, why, and how.
As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I’m here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Eric SamulskiBefore we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Chandler Simpson is very back and it doesn’t look like he’s going back down any time soon. More on that below.
Apart from the stolen bases, Luis Robert Jr. has finally turned it on at the plate. He’s riding an eight-game hitting streak and has a 1.023 OPS since the beginning of July, just in time to be traded to a contender.
Imagine telling someone in March that we’d be one week away from the trade deadline and Juan Soto would have the same amount of stolen bases as Corbin Carroll.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Brandon Lowe’s second trip to the injured list this month opens the door a bit wider for José Caballero to play nearly every day. If he plays, he will be stealing bases.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
Jonathan India and Luis Rengifo are vying for the least efficient base stealing season we’ve seen in a long time.
The wear and tear added on by pitching has seemingly stopped Shohei Ohtani from stealing bases. He’s swiped just two since the start of June and it feels safe to say the 59 from last year will prove to be a drastic outlier in his career.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The duo of Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini have allowed 14 stolen bases over the Astros’ last nine games, most in the league. They didn’t come in bunches either, just a few bags from their opponents every night.
Of all catchers, Diaz has given up the most stolen bases this season with 67. He’s also outside of the top-10 with 67 starts behind the plate and caught a very low 13.4% of runners.
To compound the issue, Caratini has the lowest caught stealing rate of any catcher that’s started at least 30 games at 11.9%. They are an excellent team to target when seeking stolen bases.
Also, the White Sox have been frequently run on of late too with 12 stolen bases allowed over their last nine games.
Most of which came against the Guardians in their series just before the break where Cleveland swiped seven bases in four games.
Yet, all seven came in just two of those games, both of which with rookie Kyle Teel catching. He’s graded out around league-average in terms of his pop time and caught stealing over expected, but has only thrown out 17.6% of runners and the aggression with which players are using against him is telling.
The Guardians stole three against him in one game. All three came with a different pitcher on the mount. Then, José Ramírez took three himself in the next game off two different pitchers.
Ironically, the Rays had the opposite approach against the White Sox. They’ve just played two games against one another so far and only attempted one stolen base against Teel.
On the other hand, Chandler Simpson swiped three himself in the next game with Edgar Quero behind the plate. Teel is widely regarded as a better defender than Quero, with neither being considered stalwarts. Overall, this is another great team to target for stolen bases.
Chandler Simpson Check-In
It’s nearly been a month since the Rays recalled Simpson from the minor leagues and he’s been blazing hot since then with hits in 20 of the 23 games he’s started. Overall, he has a .325 batting average and .360 on-base percentage to solidify himself as a starter.
As he’s gotten on base so much, of course he’s been running wild too. His 11 stolen bases since June 24th – the date of his first game back – are most in the league and Tampa Bay recently moved him up to the top spot in their order.
Also, they’re clearly more comfortable with him defensively this time around. He’s made all 23 of his starts in center field as they try to shoehorn him into that spot.
Trust in a premium position and taking the reins as their lead-off hitter makes it very, very unlikely the Rays take him off the roster again. So, we can find comfort in what’s confidently the best base stealer in the league going forward.
Category: General Sports
