Sizing up the MAAC coming out of non-conference play

Non-conference play is officially over in the MAAC. All 13 teams have finished their non-league slates, in addition to the two early December conference games they played. So where does the conference stand? It’s time for a reset of expectations, understanding, and everything else heading into the final 18 games of the season.

Marist

The Red Foxes were 9-2 at this point last year, but they also didn’t play two games against high-major opponents. It was certainly jarring to see that Marist’s game against Georgia Tech turned into a shootout rather than a rock fight, but the Yellow Jackets were unfortunately too much to handle.

So far, Marist has played six Division I home games. In those six home games, it has allowed .889, .976, .811, .782, .904, and .772 adjusted points per possession, per KenPom. Bart Torvik has the Red Foxes as the 24th-best defense in the country in home games, but that metric slides down to 147th in games played on the road.

Justin Menard and Rhyjon Blackwell have both been hits out of the transfer portal. Blackwell adds scoring pop as the team’s sixth man, while Menard has given Marist terrific all-around play. How John Dunne manages the guard rotation is interesting, but how he manages the center rotation is what I have my eye on.

Jason Schofield slid into the starting lineup, while Parby Kabamba slid down the rotation, playing just 18 minutes over the last four games. Tarik Watson has been in and out of the lineup, but both he and Schofield are talented post scorers, while Kabamba and freshman Jordan Gabriel don’t have the ball in their hands quite as much.

Marist doesn’t need Jadin Collins-Roberts to be a scorer, but I’m curious to see if he can impact the team’s ceiling by tapping a little more into his scoring ability. Regardless, he and Jaden Daughtry are the heart and soul of the defense that makes Marist such a dangerous team.

Quinnipiac

We’re all on Jaden Zimmerman watch. He was the MAAC’s leading scorer before he missed the last three games heading into Christmas break. Tom Pecora said after the Hofstra game that he’s hoping to have him back “around” Jan. 11.

Obviously, it’s never good to lose a star player to an injury of any kind, but one does wonder if Zimmerman being off the floor allows some of Quinnipiac’s role players to develop in their spots. Zimmerman and reigning MAAC Player of the Year Amarri Monroe carried so much of an offensive load early in the season that finding a third consistent option was somewhat of a concern at one point.

I mentioned Asim Jones developing into that last time, and that has continued. Freshman Keith McKnight continues to provide offense in doses as well.

Regardless of scoring, the Bobcats are really feeling the loss of Paul Otieno on the glass. Quinnipiac went from the 27th-ranked defensive rebounding team in the country last season to now being 326th. Part of that is the schedule. Part of it is Monroe having to take more of the minutes at the five and not having Otieno next to him.

If there’s a concern for Quinnipiac right now, it’s that — especially with a matchup against Marist, a great rebounding team, coming up.

Iona

Iona’s win over Vermont without CJ Anthony was one of the most impressive performances by a MAAC team in the month of December. Yes, Vermont doesn’t have a great defense, but it does reinforce the Gaels’ offensive prowess to only make six 3s without your top scorer and assist man, but still drop 1.22 points per possession.

Even though he didn’t score, it may have been Alliou Fall’s most impressive performance as the Gaels utilized him as one of their offensive hubs on some possessions. Toby Harris has been dynamite off the bench and is one of the frontrunners for Sixth Player of the Year. I’m not sure he’ll attempt 10 free throws in a game again all year, though.

Lamin Sabally climbed up the scouting report in November and is starting to see different looks. As a senior, he’s playing a role that he’s never played before, and thus has to read the game differently and in more evolutions than ever. That’s hard, but I’m looking forward to seeing how he grows.

Vermont was Keshawn Williams’ best game of the season, something Iona really needed for some backcourt punch. He and Denver Anglin probably have more of their best basketball in an Iona uniform ahead of them.

I think Iona might have the highest ceiling in the conference. They’re the top offensive team per KenPom, also rank in the top 200 in defense, and have had more “freight train” moments than anybody else in the league. While Dan Geriot has had to adjust to the college game, he’s also made the college game adjust to him.

Siena

This won’t be the last time I mention a statistic like this. Siena is 0-4 against teams in KenPom’s Top 200, and 9-0 against teams outside of it. The good news? Most of the MAAC is outside of it. The bad news? In order to win the MAAC, you have to beat the top teams.

Despite that, I’m not really concerned about Siena. Now, it’s important that the Saints be fully healthy in the frontcourt. Tassie Goodrick and Riley Mulvey didn’t play in the game against Indiana. Francis Folefac has been a revelation as a freshman, but he’s more impactful on winning when he’s used in doses in a rotation where he’s not playing 30 minutes. He makes you play a certain style offensively, and isn’t as good on the glass as Chandler or Goodrick.

Siena ranks seven spots higher offensively than it did last season, despite Brendan Coyle shooting just 29% from three so far. The Saints can still score off of his gravity when he’s not making shots, but it just makes them so much more dangerous when the shots do fall. It can also bail Siena out of a game where it really needs another pulse.

Gerry McNamara’s team has impressed me with its defensive discipline throughout the year, even if Gus Yalden and Vermont tore it apart. Siena’s matchup with Iona on January 2 will be an interesting test of the defensive discipline, as the Gaels play a fairly unique offensive style for the MAAC.

Merrimack

Sacred Heart’s first opponent in conference play will be a Merrimack team that hasn’t played since Dec. 14 in Vermont. The Warriors swept Fairfield and Rider as part of a four-game winning streak to enter that Vermont game.

It’s pretty simple to read thus far. Merrimack is 6-0 against teams ranked below 230th on KenPom, and is 0-7 against teams ranked higher than that. Now, that’s a little unfair, considering none of those seven games were at home.

The zone probably still isn’t performing up to its usual standards. Yet, over the last five games, Merrimack has forced 23 more turnovers than it has given away, which is much closer to the expectation inside the program. Kevair Kennedy’s growth as the point guard has been fast, now averaging over 15 points per game on the season. Additionally, Merrimack’s 3-point shooters have been inconsistent, but it was like that last season as well.

To me, the next evolution of this Merrimack team is when it blends the right amount of Todd Brogna into the mix. He’s averaging 8.7 points in wins and 2.9 points in losses. As Joe Gallo said in the preseason, he’s much better suited to playing the five in the MAAC than in the non-conference.

Sacred Heart

I sat with Anthony Latina in the Sacred Heart locker room after Towson went on a 35-6 run to close out a win in the non-conference finale. The Pioneers used two timeouts in the first half, so Latina hesitated on using one as the Tigers started their run in the second.

“In retrospect, a timeout would probably have been the move there,” he said. “But because we only had two, and we were so close to the media, we were seeing if we could get to the media still in decent shape.”

He also mentioned that he wasn’t sure if taking the timeout would’ve helped, as Towson began to flex its physical advantage in a game that Sacred Heart was playing without its two starting forwards. Latina doesn’t expect the absences for Anquan Hill or Yann Farell to carry on much longer, and they need that inside-out game to help the guards on both ends of the floor.

Mekhi Conner has had his big games, but hasn’t been consistent as a second-year point guard. Latina encourages him to shoot when teams go under his ball screens, and it’s a game-changer when he can make a few of those. But as a 27% career 3-point shooter, he’s shot Sacred Heart out of a few games.

Latina didn’t want to give a grade to the overall non-conference portion of the season. He cited a few close losses that “change the perception of it,” but also acknowledged that his team has to play better.

What I wrote before the season is still true. So many players on this team can go out and change the game offensively on a given night. It’s about identifying the right matchups, spacing the floor, and playing just enough defense.

Fairfield

No team has raised its stock in the MAAC more than Fairfield since the final buzzer sounded on Dec. 7. The Stags were 0-2 and had just played an entire game with only four players scoring – until the final seconds – in a loss to Merrimack. Since then, Fairfield pulled out a gutty win over Monmouth and blew the doors off of Central Connecticut in New Britain. It also won a non-Division I game.

Braden Sparks is leading the MAAC in scoring with 18.2 points per contest. The top two rebounders in the league on a per-game basis are the freshman bigs, Brandon Benjamin and Declan Wucherpfennig. Benjamin missed the CCNY game with a hand injury that “isn’t believed to be serious,” per the TV broadcast.

Chris Casey was extremely disappointed with how his team rebounded last season. It was paramount for him to have the Stags end defensive possessions after the first shot, as it allows them to run in transition. We’ve seen much more of that this year, as the Stags are the top rebounding squad in the MAAC coming out of non-conference play.

The Stags have played five different starting lineups this year. The one that it used for the Monmouth and CCSU games is the most fascinating, as it surrounded Sparks with four freshmen. Deuce Turner came off the bench for most of his career and has scored 11 points in back-to-back games off the bench after putting up goose eggs against Monmouth and Merrimack.

Saint Peter’s

Another year, another non-conference schedule with only seven Division I opponents for Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks have played just one Division I game since the wins over Canisius and Niagara, and it was a battle with Georgetown on the road.

The Peacocks’ matchup with Fairfield on Monday is an especially intriguing one. As previously mentioned, Fairfield is on the upswing, and Saint Peter’s is looking to build off of its 2-0 start in conference play. Bashir Mason’s team has dealt with a bunch of different injuries over the course of the season and has already played six different starting lineups through the first ten games.

The Peacocks have to go with a pretty deep rotation because of how much they foul – not a new phenomenon for a Mason team. Lucas Scroggins, Bol Agu, Zaakir Williamson, Jahki Gupton, and, when he’s been healthy, J’Quan Ewing have cycled in and out of the forward spots.

In the backcourt, there are two key differences from last season. First, Bryce Eaton went from a .89 assist-to-turnover ratio to a 2.15 this year. And second, TJ Robinson is a legit second ball handling option that can score and playmake next to Eaton, or when Eaton is off the floor.

Mount St. Mary’s

I’ve kept my hands off the panic button for the Mount this year despite a 4-9 overall record and a 0-2 start to MAAC play. Mount St. Mary’s also faces one of the more difficult schedules over the next five games of anybody in the MAAC, with Iona, Merrimack, Quinnipiac, Saint Peter’s, and Siena on the docket. That’s why I probably won’t be in full-on panic mode even if the team goes 2-3 in those games and sits at 2-5 in MAAC play heading into the Buffalo trip.

There are some unsolvable issues with this group. It’s going to turn the ball over a ton, and it’s not going to force a ton of turnovers. Donny Lind has tried to assuage that unfavorable arithmetic by leaning much more on outside shooting this season. But I also think that Luke McEldon is one of the few true centers with legit size in the conference, and that can be used to the team’s advantage once he returns from injury – he’s missed the last two games.

But the team’s reliance on the 3-pointer isn’t an accident. Xavier Lipscomb and Justin Amadi are the only two players who really get to the line a lot, and Amadi isn’t exactly a good foul shooter. Can the Mount get more consistency from its guards as a whole? How does bringing Anthony Arrington back into the mix help that?

We’ll have to see quickly.

Manhattan

In 2022-23, Manhattan was 4-10 before turning to a zone defense as its primary defense. It helped then-interim coach RaShawn Stores control the game a little bit more, and the Jaspers played .500 ball the rest of the year, including winning five MAAC road games.

This season, John Gallagher has turned to a zone defense – in fact, a few different zone defenses – to try to offset the Jaspers’ lack of size and overall individual defensive capability. Unlike the 2023 zone though, this Manhattan team is okay with it being a faster-paced game, even with the zone. At the end of the day, that’s how a team built on its offense will thrive.

Devin Dinkins and Jaden Winston are each shooting 38% from beyond the arc, the key to the offense so far. The key to the offense in January though, will be Fraser Roxburgh playing at his best. He’s scored in the single digits in the last three games and is just six for his last 29 from deep. Roxburgh is a better player than that, and he needs to provide that offensive boost alongside the guards.

I’m also looking forward to seeing how the MAAC game suits Anthony Isaac, who played poorly in both games against Fairfield and Marist, but has been one of the team’s key pieces this year. How much differently are we looking at the Jaspers if they win one or both of the overtime games against Wagner and Army and are sitting at 7-6 instead of 5-8? On the flip side, is that lack of late-game execution in both of those games just a variance issue? Or is it part of a trend like we may have seen emerging in Hawaii?

Canisius

Do you want me to say it again? Canisius is 5-0 against teams outside of KenPom’s top 300 (including non-D1), and 0-8 against teams in KenPom’s top 300. I’ve also said throughout the year that that’s important progress for a program that won just three games in total last year and was missing a key piece in Marcus Niblack for most of non-conference play.

Now, the Griffs get a week and a half off for Christmas before facing Fairfield and Sacred Heart with a healthy Niblack. Canisius only has one game against the MAAC’s top 4 KenPom teams out of the next eight games. That should give the team a chance to sneak some wins in the first part of conference play.

My biggest question for the Griffs offensively is how much does Niblack open up for the rest of the team? Can that return make it easier for players like Bryan Ndjonga to create effective offense? Will it speed up the development of the freshmen? Or relegate them to the bench?

Rider

Still winless against Division I competition, Rider limps into conference play ranked 349th in KenPom. The Broncs are dead last in the country in effective field goal percentage, 364th in 3-point percentage, and 363rd in 2-point percentage. That sums to the 360th-ranked offense in the sport on KenPom, and 362nd in points per game.

Where does Rider go from here, you might ask? The Broncs aren’t going on the Buffalo trip this year; that is good for travel purposes. But, bad for the fact that they’ll only get one game against the other two worst teams in the league. And those games come in late February.

The Broncs host Siena, Marist, and Iona before the first half of January is done. It’s hard to call anything a must-win game in the first month of the year, but Rider’s “easiest” game of the next 14 is the Manhattan matchup on Monday.

I could go on and list some of the poor offensive metrics for Rider’s players, but I do think it’s important to highlight what Rider has done well. Shemani Fuller and Caleb Smith are impacting the game on the glass, as is Mo Diallo. If Rider wasn’t 124th in offensive rebounding rate, the Broncs’ offense would be in an even more dire state than it is right now.

Zion Cruz had six assists against VCU, his most in a game since early last January. If he can continue that, and take some of the playmaking load off of Flash Burton’s shoulders, maybe scoring becomes easier for both of them.

Niagara

Niagara got a pick-me-up win over a non-D1 opponent heading into Christmas break, but has lost eight Division I games in a row and sits 3-9.

Its top two players by On-Off splits are low-usage players Josiah Sabino and Kabeya Tshibangu, and its third-highest ranked On-Off player is energizing scoring guard Trenton Walters, who has missed the last five games with injury.

The Purple Eagles are allowing opponents to shoot 10.8% better from distance than what they are shooting themselves, an issue that has compounded with Walters, the team’s best 3-point shooter, being hurt.

Somebody or something needs to ignite this team, or else it will be two straight years missing the MAAC Tournament for Niagara.