The 49ers defense will have its hands full against Caleb Williams and the Bears
Sunday night is a big matchup for NFC playoff seeding. The San Francisco 49ers are two victories away from not having to leave Levi’s Stadium for the rest of the season. There is only one spot in the NFC up for grabs, with the NFC South division winner still up in the air. Chicago is one of two NFC South teams locked into a playoff spot, with Green Bay and the 49ers fighting with Seattle and Los Angeles for the number one seed and the NFC West crown.
John Lynch announced on KNBR today that George Kittle will be a “game-time” decision, which is huge for the 49ers offense, given his impact as a receiver and blocker. Brock Purdy has been on a heater, and that will have to continue for the rest of the season and playoff run.
Here are three things to watch for on SNF:
Chicago’s deep passing attack
Caleb Williams has shown significant leaps in 2025. When Williams is at his most dangerous is out of the pocket on the move and playing out of structure. The 49ers’ pass rush has struggled, but keeping Williams in the pocket and forcing him to win in structure will be the key for the defense. Williams and the Bears don’t utilize short, quick throws at 61%, which is good for 31st in the NFL. However, the Bears lead the NFL in deep throw rate at 15.1%.
The 49ers’ defense has to remain disciplined while sporting a 22.8% pressure rate, which ranks 31st. The Bears rank seventh in the NFL in scramble EPA/DB at 0.04.
Limiting the Bears’ rushing attack and play-action opportunities
The Bears are top ten in EPA/rush at 0.01. The success of Chicago’s running game unlocks their play-action game, which the Bears sit at second in the NFL at 33.7%. As far as under-center rates for Williams, the Bears are fourth in the NFL at 47.7%.
The 49ers’ defense has fared well against play-action, with the eighth-best EPA, and it faces play fakes at 0.04. Robert Saleh’s defense is top ten in defending the run with an EPA of -0.06.
Which team has late-game magic?
The Bears have won close game after close game in 2025. It is a tough place to live, but Chicago has finished in close/one-score games. Situationally, the Bears rank ninth in the NFL in early game EPA at 0.07. Down the stretch, their late-game success rate is 12th in the NFL at 46.3%.
The 49ers rank second in late-game success rate, 54.8%, and second in red zone EPA at 0.18. Purdy and the 49ers are equipped to play games down the stretch. It will depend on who makes the plays at the end of the game to get a win.
Category: General Sports
