The Patriots face the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday. We break down what the game means for the NFL playoff picture.
One of the biggest games on the Week 16 slate takes place on Sunday night, when the 7-7 Baltimore Ravens host the 11-3 New England Patriots in an AFC clash.
For the Patriots, the game gives New England a chance to lock up a playoff spot.
For the Ravens, the game gives Baltimore a chance to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Let’s dive into the playoff picture for both teams.
New England Patriots playoff picture
New England missed a chance to clinch both a playoff spot — and the AFC East — when they lost to the Bills last week. Buffalo’s comeback win pulled the Bills to within one game of the Patriots in the division, meaning New England cannot clinch the AFC East this weekend even with a win and a Bills loss.
However, they can lock up a playoff spot.
The Patriots do control their own destiny when it comes to clinching a playoff berth. With a win or a tie against Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, the Patriots are in the playoffs.
They can also get in depending on the results from around the league. If the Indianapolis Colts lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, then the Patriots are in the playoffs, even with a loss to Baltimore. If the Houston Texans lose or tie against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, then the Patriots are in the playoffs, even with a loss to the Ravens.
A Colts loss to the 49ers is the most likely path. Houston is heavy favorites over the Raiders, while the Colts are underdogs at home against San Francisco.
As for what a loss would mean for the Patriots, New England can still clinch the division ahead of Buffalo if they lose to Baltimore. New England’s final two games are against the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. Right now the Patriots have a 3-1 record in division games, while the Bills are 3-2 in AFC East games. If the Patriots lose Sunday night (and the Bills beat the Cleveland Browns) the teams will have matching 11-4 records.
But as long as New England wins their final two games to finish 13-4, even if the Bills win out as well, New England will win based on their record in the division.
Baltimore Ravens playoff picture
At 7-7, the Ravens are a game back of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North.
Baltimore cannot be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss Sunday night. However, a loss to the Patriots paired with a Steelers win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon would push Baltimore to the brink of elimination. In that scenario, Pittsburgh would have a two-game lead over the Ravens with two weeks remaining, and the Steelers already beat the Ravens once this season.
Tiebreaker implications
This game will not have tiebreaker implications between the Ravens and the Patriots, as Baltimore cannot catch New England in the standings.
And while the game technically factors into the tiebreaker equation for New England in their race against Buffalo in the division, it may not matter in the end.
Let’s work through that scenario.
Right now the Patriots lead the AFC East with an 11-3 record, while Buffalo is one game back at 10-4. After playing the Ravens on Sunday Night Football the Patriots finish the season with games against the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins.
As for Buffalo, after playing the Cleveland Browns on Sunday they finish with the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17, and the Jets in Week 18.
If the Patriots and the Bills finish the season tied, tiebreakers to determine the AFC East winner will start as follows (current status of each tiebreaker is listed):
- Head-to-head record: (Season tied 1-1);
- Division record: (Patriots 3-1, Bills 3-2);
- Record in common games: (Patriots 8-1, Bills 8-2);
- Record in AFC games: (Patriots 6-3, Bills 7-3)
The Ravens are one of the common opponents between the Patriots and the Bills this season, and an AFC team, so this game could matter for both that third tiebreaker step, as well as the fourth. Cleveland is another common opponent between the two teams, as well as another AFC opponent.
How could the AFC East title come down to those third and fourth steps?
With the Bills and Patriots splitting the season series, if they finish the year with the same record, the division title would at least advance to the second step.
Hypothetically, if the Bills win the rest of their games to finish 13-4, they will finish with a 4-2 record in AFC East games as they would have a win over the Jets in that scenario. Then, if the Patriots go 2-1 down the stretch — with a win over the Ravens on Sunday night and a loss to either the Jets or the Dolphins — they finish 13-4 as well, with a matching 4-2 record in the division.
Which would advance the AFC East to the third tiebreaker, common games, which is where this game between the Patriots and the Ravens comes into play. Right now, the Patriots are 8-1 in common games (with all three of their remaining games against common opponents with Buffalo) while the Bills are 8-2, with games against the Browns and Jets remaining in this category. So if we assume a world where the Patriots win on Sunday night, but lose to either the Jets or Dolphins, New England would finish at 10-2 in games against common opponents.
Here’s how the Bills would win the division in this scenario.
If the Bills win the rest of their games (two of which are against common opponents, starting this weekend against the Browns) Buffalo would be … 10-2.
Moving the division to the fourth tiebreaker, AFC record.
New England would be 8-4, while Buffalo would be 9-3. Sorry Patriots fans.
Got it?
Good.
Category: General Sports
