Is Alec Burleson the Cardinals first baseman of the future?

Coming into the offseason, I was excited for what I thought was going to be plenty of moves made early and often by the St. Louis Cardinals. Those expectations were met quickly with the trade of Sonny Gray, but then it has been tumbleweeds on the trade market since. With the holidays approaching, the unwritten deadline should hopefully push Chaim Bloom into a deal, but there still does not seem to be anything close to happening just yet.

The lack of moves has allowed me some more time to peak deeper into the organization in some aspects, and that brought me to a potential issue that may not have a clear answer. I was initially planning to do a look at if we as fans underrate just how solid Alec Burleson was at the plate, but Saturday’s post about Burly made me back off for a bit. The basic idea was that Redbird Farmhands on Twitter has been posting blind Baseball Savant pages for Cardinals players this offseason and asking for guesses. His most recent post had me guessing it was Burleson, but the correct answer was actually Brendan Donovan; the player some are clamoring is either the future of the organization or worth multiple top-1oo prospects. Of course, the positional versatility goes into that as well, but playing on technicalities in a way, Burly won the utility Silver Slugger so he has some value there too. When I compared the two Savant pages, I was surprised with how similar they actually were, but Burly had the edge in the power categories.

Alec Burleson may solve the first base problem before it shows up

Looking further into Burleson led me to what qualified him as a utility player and he ended up spending 50 games at first base, with 75 in the outfield and 22 as the DH. Rather than look at Burly as a mutli-position weapon, I wanted to zoom in on him as first baseman. I have been vocal multiple times this offseason stating my concern about the future of the cold corner in St. Louis and I refuse to buy into the “first base is easy, just teach X to play there” conversation. Yes, while it is an “easier” position than others on the field, a great one makes a difference. We did not see a massive drop off in first base defense going from Paul Goldschmidt to Willson Contreras, but I think that is a bigger testament to Contreras’ work ethic rather than the ease at which first base is played.

Anyone who follows me knows that I am a massive Willson Contreras fan and believe he is a great clubhouse leader that some fans give Donovan credit for. Without actually being in that clubhouse, it is impossible to know who is the one other players look up to, but my view is that he has the fire, energy, and passion that he shows in an outward way that may resonate better with the new generation of baseball players. That is no slight to Donnie, as his type of leadership is obviously appreciated by coaches and players alike, and he has consistently been mentioned as a valuable asset for a contending team to have in their dugout.

The Contreras leadership for lack of better terms is what I currently value at this stage of the rebuild, but the biggest reason I was not a fan of him potentially waiving his no-trade clause is the fact that behind him, first base is pretty barren. Part of this thought is because, even though Burleson is a below-average outfielder, he has shown improvement in the grass even with the extended time at first. If the Cardinals find a suitor for Contreras, the easy move would be to shift Burly to first base full-time, but I appreciate the ability to play other positions to free up some lineup configurations. The other outfield questions lie within Lars Nootbaar’s health and Jordan Walker realizing his full potential on both sides of the ball. In the minors, the outfield has Joshua Baez and Nathan Church as nearest to the bigs, but they come with their own question marks as well.

Even with my uncertainties in the outfield, a Burleson move to first base could create a level of confidence in that spot before we ever really had the opportunity to worry about it. We have been pretty spoiled as fans at first base, with guys like Pujols, Goldschmidt, and McGwire providing name value with their performance, while also having fan favorites like Matt Carpenter and Contreras fill in the vacant years. Since 2010, Cardinals first basemen are worth the most fWAR in all of baseball, totaling the second-highest offensive value and pairing that with middle-of-the-road defense over that span. While Burleson has not yet had the hitting performance that those players had, his fWAR ranked 15th in all of baseball among primary first basemen.

Back to an original part of the question I am hopefully going to answer: why do I see there being a future first base problem? Behind Contreras is Burleson and that’s about it. As far as the MLB Pipeline’s top prospects say, Blaze Jordan (19th) and Jack Gurevitch (21st) sit in the Cardinals’ top 30 rankings. In Memphis last season, first base mostly was covered by four players who are no longer with the organization and a 30-year old primary catcher. Luken Baker and Matt Lloyd (average age 29) combined to play 92 games at first with the rest being split among Jordan, Ryan Villade, catcher Gavin Collins, and a few others. Springfield was not much better, but Ryan Harris did put together a solid year and spent 22 games at first while bouncing around the diamond.

The Cardinals options with major league experience at first behind Contreras and Burleson are Nolan Gorman (7 games) are Pedro Pages (3). Gorman has the most potential to slide in as a first base option, as I believe he took some practice reps there at a couple points last year and is a man without a spot on the 2026 Cardinals. A position shift would be the third of Gorman’s career while also working through offensive adjustments against big league pitchers. Pages does not have the offense that the Cardinals have been used to at first base and is supposedly the best defensive catcher currently on the roster.

Some have asked about moving Jordan Walker to first, and that could be on the horizon at some point, but like Gorman, Walker has been struggling against major league pitching while also learning a new position. This season, Walker will hopefully have consistent playing time at one spot to limit the amount of focus points in what could be a big season for the former top prospect. Beyond those two sits the potential of Ivan Herrera making the move and he has had the offensive success that neither of the other two youngsters have had. That could mean a shift to first could come with less hitting ramifications, but he will still be learning a new position at the big league level. If catching does not work out for Herrera, the team could give him time to take reps in batting practice while DHing to avoid him working on two things at once.

The cost of free agent first basemen is not getting any cheaper with Pete Alonso signing a $31-million AAV deal, apparent first baseman Jorge Polanco receiving $20 million per year, and switch hitter Josh Bell getting $7 million in a one-year deal. Burleson will be getting $2.1 million next season and has three more seasons of club control. What he is currently lacking that the others have is the stereotypical homer potential, but he has seen his slugging percentage steadily rise over the last three seasons. Burly’s expected .461 slugging percentage puts him in the top quarter of the league and 11th in all of baseball among qualified first basemen. With 44 extra-base hits last season and superb bat-to-ball skills, Burleson has the potential to grow into a slugger as he comes into his age-27 campaign.

Burleson was rated as a 50-grade power prospect coming through the minors but his career-high in homers is 22, which he set in his pro debut season across three levels. The lefty now has over 1500 plate appearances in the majors and last season was his best as a big league player. Burleson’s .290 batting average was good for 15th in all of baseball in 2025 and his 14.5% strikeout rate was 5th-best among those players. While he may never grow into the home run power that the typical first basemen has, his slugging percentage ranked 11th-best even without the homers. He may not post the eye-popping power numbers, but if he can continue his steady progression with the bat, he could fill the Cardinals’ first base position until they are able to develop their next slugger or pony up the cash for my trademarked beer bellied basher.