Wrestling Preview: #1 Penn State at the Journeymen Collegiate Duals

Last year, the Nittany Lions headed to the Journeymen Collegiate Duals and wrestled on Sunday, facing three teams (two ranked) and dominated. This year, they’re the marquee team on Saturday Night, facing a pair of teams that it’s been a minute since they’ve seen in a dual meet setting, if they’ve faced them at all.

Up first for Penn State is North Dakota State, a team with half their lineup ranked; shortly after that dual, PSU will face Stanford, whom they last met in a dual meet in November 2016. Both opponents are under .500 on the season; NDSU has losses to ranked Minnesota and Northern Iowa squads and a win over Concordia-Moorhead, while the Cardinal have losses to Utah Valley (with multiple starters out) and top five Oklahoma State and a win over Cal Baptist. The two Nittany Lion opponents will face each other prior to PSU taking the mat.

The Collegiate Duals this year have attracted a ton of great teams; in addition to the defending national champs on Saturday, Sunday’s slate includes #2 Ohio State, #3 Iowa State, #11 Illinois, #18 Cornell, #22 Lehigh, and #29 Little Rock.

How To Watch

Where: Montgomery Bell Academy, Nashville, TN

When: Saturday, December 20, 5 PM EST & 7PM EST

Audio: Free (via GoPSUSports; via Wowy)

Video: Flo ($$)

#1 Penn State vs North Dakota State*

Lineup

125

Luke Lilledahl’s only loss on the season is to his teammate Nate Desmond, which doesn’t count on his official record; he’s still ranked #2 but is a definite favorite for the national title. He’s been on a tear against opponents he doesn’t see in the weight room, and that’ll continue here, even against a ranked wrestler.

Prediction: Lilledahl by tech fall

Score: PSU 5, NDSU 0

133 LBS

Speaking of on a tear, Blaze is still only ranked #10 but as long as he continues to take care of business as he’s done so far, he’ll continue to climb. He’s facing a veteran ranked grappler, but I think the only question in this bout is how long it lasts. Marcus is just that fast.

Prediction: Blaze by tech fall

Score: PSU 10, NDSU 0

141 LBS

This weight is one of those that the Bison don’t have a ranked wrestler at, and as a result I expect the Nittany Lions to still sit a recovering Nagao. Desmond looked really good in Wyoming after moving up from the 125lb class he wrestled Lilledahl in at the Black Knight Open in November (Jeff Byers reported on audio that he weighed in at 138), and I’m guessing he’ll look even better in this opening bout.

Prediction: Desmond by major decision

Score: PSU 14, NDSU 0

149 LBS

I was very close to predicting a pin here, as Shayne has just been wrestling with such joy and purpose. But I can’t quite pull that trigger so will go conservative, with just one bonus point.

Prediction: Van Ness by major decision

Score: PSU 18, NDSU 0

157 LBS

The algorithmic wrestlestat predicts that PJ Duke will just win by decision. I think that’s laughable; I’d be shocked if this goes all seven minutes.

Prediction: Duke by pin

Score: PSU 24, NDSU 0

165 LBS

Mitch surprised me last week by getting a pin instead of just the tech, but that won’t deter the consistency of these predictions.

Prediction: Mesenbrink by tech fall

Score: PSU 29, NDSU 0

174 LBS

Levi Haines has been noted by broadcasters as the most improved wrestler on this squad, which is scary. This dual meet matches him up against a redshirt freshman with a losing record, which indicates that it likely is just a matter of which period this ends early in.

Prediction: Levi by pin

Score: PSU 35, NDSU 0

184 LBS

Rocco Welsh faces North Dakota State’s best wrestler, and for that reason this will likely be one of the lowest scoring. We’re still waiting to really see Rocco open up his offense in the blue and white, but I don’t think we’ll do that here.

Prediction: Welsh by decision

Score: PSU 38, NDSU 0

197 LBS 

Connor had his first loss last weekend in Laramie, and while this first bout will likely see him bounce back from it, I think it’ll take a period or two to get him going. He may end up close to a bonus point win due to late heroics, but will end up just shy.

Prediction: Connor by decision

Score: PSU 43, NDSU 0

285 LBS 

Cole had his second loss last week, again to a ranked wrestler. He’ll look to get back in the driver’s seat again this week, and I expect either a quick win or a low-scoring two point victory, not much in between, as he gets back into his groove.

Prediction: Cole by decision

Score: PSU 46, NDSU 0

Overall score prediction: Penn State 46, North Dakota State 0

#1 Penn State vs #19 Stanford*

Lineup

125 LBS

Provo is a two-time NCAA tournament qualifier who redshirted last year, and is very good (likely better than his ranking). But Luke’s on another level and while conventional wisdom says this will be close, I’m not sure it will be. I think a late takedown and rideout gives Lightning the bonus point.

Prediction: Lilledahl by major decision

Score: PSU 4, Stanford 0

133 LBS

Blaze’s speed is on another level; possibly quicker than RBY’s (and he’ll benefit from an even more expanded weight room now that the PSU alum has returned to the NLWC), though not as obviously creative. On paper, he’s the underdog in this bout as Knox is a top ten guy with some great wins on the year, but I’d be surprised if it’s even close. A late takedown, possibly on a counter, seals the decisive win for the freshman.

Prediction: Blaze by decision

Score: PSU 7, Stanford 0

141 LBS

The ultimate result of this bout was the one I waffled on most while mapping out these predictions; Consiglio is a very good PA kid, with an up and down season so far but a ton of potential. If Desmond has gained enough weight he could make this interesting, but I think the Cardinal gets an early signature win.

Prediction: Consiglio by decision

Score: PSU 7, Stanford 3

149 LBS

This is another one that on paper looks to be close, but with the way SVN is wrestling (when he doesn’t get complacent), this could be over in all but score pretty quickly. 

Prediction: Van Ness by major decision

Score: PSU 11, Stanford 3

157 LBS – Match of the Meet

I don’t know why it seems like everyone keeps underestimating PJ Duke. In his best test so far this year, against Lehigh, he was up big before his opponent injury defaulted, and because of that default Duke isn’t getting the credit he should. This bout is a really good resume booster and he’ll likely vault up the rankings even more after this. 

Prediction: Duke by decision

Score: PSU 14, Stanford 3

165 LBS

Hunter Garvin is very good, a two-time All-American. But this is Mitchell Mesenbrink, and it’s more likely that he gets a tech fall than is close to losing here. Spoiler alert for the rest of the season: this will be the prediction for this weight in every dual meet.

Prediction: Mesenbrink by tech fall

Score: PSU 19, Stanford 3

174 LBS

This will likely be the most lopsided weight in the dual meet this evening, with odds that it ends in the first period; after all, former Nittany Lion now Cowboy Alex Facundo tech falled Guffey earlier this year. I’d say poor kid, but he likely wouldn’t want me to.

Prediction: Levi by pin

Score: PSU 25, Stanford 3

184 LBS

I think wrestling back-to-back will benefit Welsh and we’ll finally see his offense open up a little bit, gaining the bonus here.

Prediction: Welsh by major decision

Score: PSU 29, Stanford 3

197 LBS 

Posado may be better than his ranking, keeping it close in the Ok State dual against a top ten opponent, but there’s a reason I almost predicted bonus here. Connor has the potential, and if Josh Barr is back, this could be out of reach pretty quickly.

Prediction: Connor by decision

Score: PSU 32, Stanford 3

285 LBS 

This has a very strong possibility of ending very quickly; it depends on Cole, not so much on the Cardinal wrestler. If Cole wrestles like we know he can, this could be done in the first.

Prediction: Cole by major decision

Score: PSU 36, Stanford 3

Overall score prediction: Penn State 36, Stanford 3

*The Penn State athletic department, in its official capacity, uses Intermat’s Tournament Power Index in all its match literature; I’m using Intermat’s Dual Meet Rankings because this happens to be a dual. Penn State is #1 in both rankings; North Dakota State is unranked in both rankings, while Stanford is #19 in the Dual rankings, and #9 in the Tournament rankings.

Dual Meet Streak Updates

(via Jp)

Penn State’s current D1 Dual Meet Win Streak is at 75. The Nittany Lions have not lost a dual meet since a 19-17 loss at Iowa on January 31, 2020, just a few weeks after Freestyle injuries to Brady Berge and Anthony Cassar decimated chances for a National Championship 5-peat. That 2020 National Tourney was itself shut down a few weeks later by the global pandemic.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys own the record for longest Dual Meet Winning Streak at 76, which began March 5, 1937 and ended January 19, 1951 with a loss to Oklahoma. With a win over NDSU, Penn State will tie OkSt at 76, and with a win over Stanford, they will overtake the Cowboys and lead alone at 77.

Going forward, Iowa owns the record for longest Dual Meet Unbeaten Streak, at 84. Would you be surprised to know that this streak was under Tom Brands and not Dan Gable? This streak began after a 19-15 loss to Oklahoma State on January 5, 2008, and continued as both a Winning AND Unbeaten streak until a 15-15 tie with OkSt on January 16, 2011 ended the Winning Streak at 69. From there, it continued as an Unbeaten Streak, until Oklahoma State again ended it, with a 17-16 victory on January 8, 2012, via the then-newly-introduced tiebreaker criteria rules.